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KENOL/KOBIL
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mwanahisa
#501 Posted : Friday, August 20, 2010 11:34:30 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
I managed to get a sizeable lot at 9.10. I am looking forward to buying more as it drops. This company has made lots of money for me over the years. It's been around for 50 years. I bet it will be there for at least another 50 more! Call it falling in love with a stock if you will, but I sure will keep buying.

I have got approx. 10% of my portfolio in it and I reckon to increase this to 20% as the price falls.

Note NBV for the company is above Kshs 7 so even if they went into liquidation - we would still survive.
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Horton
#502 Posted : Friday, August 20, 2010 11:40:30 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
mwanahisa wrote:
I managed to get a sizeable lot at 9.10. I am looking forward to buying more as it drops. This company has made lots of money for me over the years. It's been around for 50 years. I bet it will be there for at least another 50 more! Call it falling in love with a stock if you will, but I sure will keep buying.

I have got approx. 10% of my portfolio in it and I reckon to increase this to 20% as the price falls.

Note NBV for the company is above Kshs 7 so even if they went into liquidation - we would still survive.



Well done....dude they are not going to close down....

Next question, sorry totally random, working out NBV for a hypothetical company, what if their assets are overvalued somehow? Kinda like the enroll fib?? Waddaya do then?
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mwanahisa
#503 Posted : Friday, August 20, 2010 11:43:35 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
FACT. Kenol (as it was then known) was trading at Kshs 1.50 in 1991. If only I was old enough to buy it then. It has since split twice at a rate of 10:1 - a multiple of 100. It's share price (adjusted for the splits @9.10) is 910. A 600 bagger in 2 decades. I am not betting against such a record!
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mlennyma
#504 Posted : Friday, August 20, 2010 11:44:53 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
A tick will stick to a cow even after it has died only to be burried with it.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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mwanahisa
#505 Posted : Friday, August 20, 2010 11:46:47 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
@Horton, I guess there's always the possibility of overvaluation. However, the stock market is fraught with risk and you have got to have the stomach for it. Having said that, most of KenolKobil's assets are in Tangible assets, Land, buildings and equipment. As a proxy, look at the price Total paid for Chevron assets in Kenya.
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mv_ufanisi
#506 Posted : Friday, August 20, 2010 11:51:46 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/15/2010
Posts: 625
mwanahisa wrote:
@Horton, I guess there's always the possibility of overvaluation. However, the stock market is fraught with risk and you have got to have the stomach for it. Having said that, most of KenolKobil's assets are in Tangible assets, Land, buildings and equipment. As a proxy, look at the price Total paid for Chevron assets in Kenya.


U made a good call there to buy at 9.1 - you will easily end up making money today. Was a very risky decision though that you made. My expectation was that we'd go down to 9 and not come back up. But the share is going up again.
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sheep
#507 Posted : Friday, August 20, 2010 11:59:45 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
kenol mania!!!! hii ndio inashika sana hii!!!
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
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tkzee
#508 Posted : Friday, August 20, 2010 12:01:42 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/13/2010
Posts: 160
Location: rift Valley-Naks
The swings with this stock are just too much. At some point demand is 6000 then all over sudden demand is almost matching supply,its like its on PMS.
''i can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies,but not the madness of people''-Isaac Newton
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cnn
#509 Posted : Friday, August 20, 2010 12:05:03 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,627
What makes one think KK is going anywhere?.Even if the worst happened which is the KPRL bastards being paid for their inefficiencies how much is that a dent to KK? .I am heavily invested here and i wish it could remain cheap long enough for me to get constipated with it.Yes i need more blood on the streets.
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slykat
#510 Posted : Friday, August 20, 2010 1:04:50 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 359
mwanahisa wrote:
FACT. Kenol (as it was then known) was trading at Kshs 1.50 in 1991. If only I was old enough to buy it then. It has since split twice at a rate of 10:1 - a multiple of 100. It's share price (adjusted for the splits @9.10) is 910. A 600 bagger in 2 decades. I am not betting against such a record!


Inasmuch as past performance is not...., interesting history you dug up there. Do you have data on mkt share variations and profit margins over the 2 decades? Why, because I suspect that; first margins have dropped significantly in recent years, and two, competition became fairer and thus tougher under Kibakinomics, three there were fewer players *not even independent ones until only recently. And of course, under Moinomics you had a choice of paying 10% or tax..hehehehe..

Considering this, do you see history repeating self?
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