I think the Jubilee government is not doing itself service in quantifying the ROI, the ROI on investment is actually high. Elements to consider:

- Increased new traffic (people) to coast, quantify consumer spending and new investments by public and private sector to harness the gains

- The reduction of use of road transport hence less maintenance

- Significant reduction of commuting time hence increased productivity and capital efficiencies

-New efficiencies achieved through the learning of completion of such major project

-etc etc

We are already past 5%, and it is only going to increase once the utilization approaches over 80% and completion of the project.


Just have a look at Thika and try and quantify the gains. Clearly ROI of 80% is too little...Kenya is heading place, corruption is just slowly us down..

are all developing countries in Africa?

China, SA, Pakistan, Croatia etc are all developing countries

Uganda Airlines https://www.businessdail...4984-m3a4vtz/index.html
DOA?

There's no free lunch. The cost of these White Elephants might be horrendous.

Look at KQ [this is a KQ thread] and the "praises" for Project Mawingu which didn't take into account many of the "downsides" and we ended with an entity that wiped out 80bn+ in value.

How long have we been learning to implement "future projects" and yet our bridges are still collapsing? Anyway @Seles83, you sound a little bit like Mutua when he was the GOK spokesman.

Wah.

One thing I have learned about critics is that they rarely spot any opportunities. Instead, they focus on what is obvious. Kenya is really growing, so get out of your comfort zone travel around Nairobi....You learn more by observing the movement of capital and investment rather than reading Newspaper or TV News.

I always compare a place from where it was 5 yrs and 10 yrs ago and then imagine where it is going to be in 5 yrs, 10 yrs and 20 yrs time.

Corruption will always be there (sadly part of the culture now) and Critics will always be louder.

Is Kenya perfect nope, but it is it improving ...Oh Yes!!

I have never met anyone who has really made tonnes of money or brought about major change by being pessimistic.

Be a relentless optimistic and your mindset will change dramatically. We have many critics but few change agents!!

Seles cannot be a madam..

That's a red herring argument.
Whereas infrastructure is needed, the cost of it is important. Risk/Reward Ratio.
White Elephants do not benefit society though they may benefit a few.

This is not about "optimism" "optimists" "pessimism" or "pessimists" [the red herring].
This is about sensible numbers/financials.

Let's look at ARM. Or KQ. The expansion was heavily funded by debt.

ARM: Mr Positive Paunrana even managed to convince an "army of experts in London" to lose 50% of intrinsic value in one year! And it gets worse.
KQ: The less said the better. Look up Project Mawingu.

Dubai also went through a rough patch but it had a super-wealthy cousin in Abu Dhabi. AD is a large oil producer and its coffers were full after the last run-up in oil prices.

Kenya: We need the infrastructure but paying 2x (corruption and incompetence) provides us a dismal ROE. You argued the SGR will increase tourism and trade BUT the same could have been done by rehabilitating the "old" railway [WB had a feasibility study] and expanding the Nairobi-Mombasa Road.

As a country basis, we should not leave our heirs with crazy debts [vs the assets].
Sri Lanka gave up a significant port to the Chinese in exchange for a barely used airport.

Blind optimism is easy BUT one has to be pragmatic and that means sometimes one misses out on a few opportunities.
Personal investments are OK. Take the risk. If you lose YOUR money it is YOUR money.

Kenya, on the other hand, belongs 45mn+ people (& future generations). We have to take risks but not at the low potential rewards for the risks.

Even Centum is now beginning to feel the pinch