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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mkonomtupu wrote:@hisah during the parabolic in 1993-94(goldenberg era), inflation was almost 50%, 90 day tbill was yielding 60%, unga shares were 960/=. The good times came to an end during the mass-action of 1997, then el-nino hit and then la-nina and IMHO sell-off for 8 years was caused by the tightening of liquidity for 8 years. Actually David Ndii said they had to fire the CBK governor in 2003 to allow for monetary easing So is the next parabolic coming up coz of eurobond...
Scan has been churning vols since last month. Today 11M shares have trade with turnover clocking 0.5B. Keeping track of the counters with jumbo vols.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/15/2013 Posts: 301
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@hisah....cartoon shows how pessimistic market was during KANU era between 94-02.Continuos sell offs/decline with no recovery(or was it global). Kweli things were very bad then. After 02 corrections have been followed by recovery....
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,225 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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mulla wrote:@hisah....cartoon shows how pessimistic market was during KANU era between 94-02.Continuos sell offs/decline with no recovery(or was it global). Kweli things were very bad then. After 02 corrections have been followed by recovery.... It wasnt just in the Stock Market. By the way, i still have a price list for June 2001 showing KCB with a closing price of KES.8.50. The stock would later spilt 10 times in 2007 and is now priced at KES.48.25, or KES.482.50 pre split. Never mind the 3 rights issues since that time. Now do the math. Even in real estate, it was the same story. In most areas within the Greater Nairobi, land value has appreciated atleast 20 times. @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:mulla wrote:@hisah....cartoon shows how pessimistic market was during KANU era between 94-02.Continuos sell offs/decline with no recovery(or was it global). Kweli things were very bad then. After 02 corrections have been followed by recovery.... It wasnt just in the Stock Market. By the way, i still have a price list for June 2001 showing KCB with a closing price of KES.8.50. The stock would later spilt 10 times in 2007 and is now priced at KES.48.25, or KES.482.50 pre split. Never mind the 3 rights issues since that time. Now do the math. Even in real estate, it was the same story. In most areas within the Greater Nairobi, land value has appreciated atleast 20 times. That's what happens when you tighten liquidity, removing the punch bowl from the party, actually the only thing NARC did was to increase money supply by 8% per year, lower the cash ratio from 18% and the rest was history. Even with the added money supply the biggest complaint for kenyans is the high cost of living
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mkonomtupu wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:mulla wrote:@hisah....cartoon shows how pessimistic market was during KANU era between 94-02.Continuos sell offs/decline with no recovery(or was it global). Kweli things were very bad then. After 02 corrections have been followed by recovery.... It wasnt just in the Stock Market. By the way, i still have a price list for June 2001 showing KCB with a closing price of KES.8.50. The stock would later spilt 10 times in 2007 and is now priced at KES.48.25, or KES.482.50 pre split. Never mind the 3 rights issues since that time. Now do the math. Even in real estate, it was the same story. In most areas within the Greater Nairobi, land value has appreciated atleast 20 times. That's what happens when you tighten liquidity, removing the punch bowl from the party, actually the only thing NARC did was to increase money supply by 8% per year, lower the cash ratio from 18% and the rest was history. Even with the added money supply the biggest complaint for kenyans is the high cost of living So to get another round of money supply flood taps the current CB will be kicked out going by history since current gok wants liquidity come what... Is this why someone is facing some lawsuits as well as debates on trimming the CB's term? Very interesting...$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: User Joined: 1/20/2014 Posts: 3,528
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Confirms Mwai was a true economist. Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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Dynamic duo=clueless duo on matters economy. When you see Tata saying they can't keep Magadi open... Lots of banks adjusting their npls (CFC as an example). Stuff has to come out of the wash at some point. Figures never lie. Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/23/2011 Posts: 1,740 Location: Nairobi
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Saw the story, cost of power 100M a month !!!!. This can be cheaper for sure...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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during the interest rate spike in 2011 I expected NPL s to spike in 2012. they didn't. interest rates normalized in 2012, then now we have NPLs spiking in 2013-2014. this makes no sense. shouldn't NPLs have spike in 2012 and be normalizing now???? The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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hisah wrote:mkonomtupu wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:mulla wrote:@hisah....cartoon shows how pessimistic market was during KANU era between 94-02.Continuos sell offs/decline with no recovery(or was it global). Kweli things were very bad then. After 02 corrections have been followed by recovery.... It wasnt just in the Stock Market. By the way, i still have a price list for June 2001 showing KCB with a closing price of KES.8.50. The stock would later spilt 10 times in 2007 and is now priced at KES.48.25, or KES.482.50 pre split. Never mind the 3 rights issues since that time. Now do the math. Even in real estate, it was the same story. In most areas within the Greater Nairobi, land value has appreciated atleast 20 times. That's what happens when you tighten liquidity, removing the punch bowl from the party, actually the only thing NARC did was to increase money supply by 8% per year, lower the cash ratio from 18% and the rest was history. Even with the added money supply the biggest complaint for kenyans is the high cost of living So to get another round of money supply flood taps the current CB will be kicked out going by history since current gok wants liquidity come what... Is this why someone is facing some lawsuits as well as debates on trimming the CB's term? Very interesting... @hisah, the battle is still being fought at treasury between the "bean counters" who want austerity and the "expansionists" who want cheaper rates. In my view the Eurobond may only cause a ripple and not a wave. GoK is putting out a 1.8 trillion budget while the KRA taxes come to 1 trillion. Eurobond would work if the there is fiscal discipline and efforts to cut down the budget deficit. The only way to cut down the deficit is to raise taxes(maybe even capital gains tax) which is what I expect on the 12th June budget statement. The earliest you can feel the effect of liquidity maybe 2016
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