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Angelica _ann
#5021 Posted : Monday, November 21, 2016 3:30:43 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,935
hisah wrote:
Nigeria Proposes Jail Time, Fines as It Tries to Boost Naira

Quote:
Nigeria plans to give the central bank more power to control capital flows and prevent foreign-exchange being taken out of the country, including jail time and fines for offenders as authorities battle a shortage of dollars.


Welcome to USD dragon madness central. A lot of stupid capital controls coming up as govts struggle to find USD to pay back their heavy debts.

I hope we ... Kenya will not be caught in this mess, any insights?
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
hisah
#5022 Posted : Monday, November 21, 2016 3:47:30 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Angelica _ann wrote:
hisah wrote:
Nigeria Proposes Jail Time, Fines as It Tries to Boost Naira

Quote:
Nigeria plans to give the central bank more power to control capital flows and prevent foreign-exchange being taken out of the country, including jail time and fines for offenders as authorities battle a shortage of dollars.


Welcome to USD dragon madness central. A lot of stupid capital controls coming up as govts struggle to find USD to pay back their heavy debts.

I hope we ... Kenya will not be caught in this mess, any insights?

The eurobond. Watch it.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
lochaz-index
#5023 Posted : Monday, November 21, 2016 7:12:58 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Angelica _ann wrote:
hisah wrote:
Nigeria Proposes Jail Time, Fines as It Tries to Boost Naira

Quote:
Nigeria plans to give the central bank more power to control capital flows and prevent foreign-exchange being taken out of the country, including jail time and fines for offenders as authorities battle a shortage of dollars.


Welcome to USD dragon madness central. A lot of stupid capital controls coming up as govts struggle to find USD to pay back their heavy debts.

I hope we ... Kenya will not be caught in this mess, any insights?

I also share the same hope, however I prefer to acquaint myself with reality and if possible try to profit off of it.

KE is most certainly in this mess. The only part we skipped is the commodity/oil dependence part that is currently crushing most developing economies. The next part of the show will be a bit more inclusive.

If KES gets through next year in under 120 to the dollar we should thank our lucky stars.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
lochaz-index
#5024 Posted : Monday, November 21, 2016 7:40:52 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
lochaz-index wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
The naira has been through one tough roller coaster. The official devaluation downgraded it from 190 to 300+ vs the dollar in four months(June through to September) whilst the black market rate is still north of 400 having clocked a gruesome 436 about two weeks ago.

Having extended a zero interest loan to Nigeria, the IMF is pressing for further debasement and a fuel hike.

http://www.vanguardngr.c...itions-tough-handle-fg/

KE has taken two precautionary loans in two years, will it find itself in the same predicament in one years time?

African currencies are having a torrid time especially the ones with fixed pegs. The Egyptian pound is falling like a rock and is still expected to fall some more.
Quote:
Abdel Aal expects the CBE to follow the controlled flotation and drop the Egyptian pound’s value down against the US dollar by 30%, either once or twice.

More fx expenditures than revenue means the CBE doesn't have the ammo to float the currency despite the IMF's insistence.

The next 18-24 months are promising to be excruciating for developing economies and their currencies more so the African ones.

The fx market is a reliable pulse reader of coming moves in the financial world. Recent actions imply some heavy weight action is on the way probably in the bond market.
http://www.dailynewsegyp...ial-request-borrow-imf/


Take 3: at the bottom of the the sovereign bond barrel, Mozambique officially issues an SOS to its creditors. Will it be a soft default via debt restructuring as so desired or an outright default? Either way it has good company in the form of Venezuela.

Their debt to GDP ratio is projected to close at 130% by end of 2016. A developed nation can try to juggle this kind of debt, but for a developing economy it is toxic. This has grown from 62.4% in 2014, 53.1% in 2013 and 38.1% in 2011. Ring a bell? KE had better watch out. Things went south in a two year window and now they are in distress.

The metical lost 30% vs the dollar in 2015 and a further 70% this year which ballooned their debt. With inflation at a scorching 16.7% (from 2.4% in 2015), the BdM has hiked its rate to circa 23%.

http://www.wsj.com/artic...estructuring-1477418742

EA economies and currencies have held their ground quite admirably in 2016, will they manage the same feat?

Take 4: Bank of Ghana cuts its rate (cbr equivalent) to 25.5% from 26%. Inflation still at a head spinning 15.8%. Cedi is a little stable but still skidding nonetheless.
http://www.bloomberg.com...k-first-time-since-2011
Considering the fate of pegs and caps is always the same i.e. they both fall by the wayside eventually, the KE interest rate caps are going to have a short shelf life.

In addition, looked at through the global 5000 year prism, interest rates are set to rise - caps or no caps.

If we get crazy inflation next year and KES weakens excessively vs USD, the caps are going to look ridiculous at some point.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
lochaz-index
#5025 Posted : Wednesday, November 23, 2016 6:57:40 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Private sector credit growth in KE contracts for the 14th consecutive month.
Quote:
Lending to the private sector slowed for the 14th consecutive month in September, central bank data published this week show. In August, President Uhuru Kenyatta signed a law that capped banks’ loan charges at four percentage points above the benchmark central bank rate, which is currently 10 percent.

This is the pre-caps trend yet there was no KES strength. Banks have since taken to govt securities enmasse in the post-caps period.
https://www.bloomberg.co...-growth-in-2017-imf-says
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
lochaz-index
#5026 Posted : Friday, November 25, 2016 3:12:34 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
lochaz-index wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
The naira has been through one tough roller coaster. The official devaluation downgraded it from 190 to 300+ vs the dollar in four months(June through to September) whilst the black market rate is still north of 400 having clocked a gruesome 436 about two weeks ago.

Having extended a zero interest loan to Nigeria, the IMF is pressing for further debasement and a fuel hike.

http://www.vanguardngr.c...itions-tough-handle-fg/

KE has taken two precautionary loans in two years, will it find itself in the same predicament in one years time?

African currencies are having a torrid time especially the ones with fixed pegs. The Egyptian pound is falling like a rock and is still expected to fall some more.
Quote:
Abdel Aal expects the CBE to follow the controlled flotation and drop the Egyptian pound’s value down against the US dollar by 30%, either once or twice.

More fx expenditures than revenue means the CBE doesn't have the ammo to float the currency despite the IMF's insistence.

The next 18-24 months are promising to be excruciating for developing economies and their currencies more so the African ones.

The fx market is a reliable pulse reader of coming moves in the financial world. Recent actions imply some heavy weight action is on the way probably in the bond market.
http://www.dailynewsegyp...ial-request-borrow-imf/


Take 3: at the bottom of the the sovereign bond barrel, Mozambique officially issues an SOS to its creditors. Will it be a soft default via debt restructuring as so desired or an outright default? Either way it has good company in the form of Venezuela.

Their debt to GDP ratio is projected to close at 130% by end of 2016. A developed nation can try to juggle this kind of debt, but for a developing economy it is toxic. This has grown from 62.4% in 2014, 53.1% in 2013 and 38.1% in 2011. Ring a bell? KE had better watch out. Things went south in a two year window and now they are in distress.

The metical lost 30% vs the dollar in 2015 and a further 70% this year which ballooned their debt. With inflation at a scorching 16.7% (from 2.4% in 2015), the BdM has hiked its rate to circa 23%.

http://www.wsj.com/artic...estructuring-1477418742

EA economies and currencies have held their ground quite admirably in 2016, will they manage the same feat?

Take 4: Bank of Ghana cuts its rate (cbr equivalent) to 25.5% from 26%. Inflation still at a head spinning 15.8%. Cedi is a little stable but still skidding nonetheless.
http://www.bloomberg.com...k-first-time-since-2011
Considering the fate of pegs and caps is always the same i.e. they both fall by the wayside eventually, the KE interest rate caps are going to have a short shelf life.

In addition, looked at through the global 5000 year prism, interest rates are set to rise - caps or no caps.

If we get crazy inflation next year and KES weakens excessively vs USD, the caps are going to look ridiculous at some point.

Take 5: Libya is still smouldering 5 years after the uprising. One hell of a devaluation awaits the dinar.
Quote:
The dinar has been steadily weakening on the black market over the past year as the nation’s political rifts thwarted a recovery in oil output. It hit a record low of 7 to the dollar this week, according to currency dealers in Tripoli. The official rate is 1.4.

Inflation is North of 20%.

https://t.co/mwK9jiw6fD

Can't catch a break now, can they?
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
Angelica _ann
#5027 Posted : Friday, November 25, 2016 4:03:15 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,935
lochaz-index wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
The naira has been through one tough roller coaster. The official devaluation downgraded it from 190 to 300+ vs the dollar in four months(June through to September) whilst the black market rate is still north of 400 having clocked a gruesome 436 about two weeks ago.

Having extended a zero interest loan to Nigeria, the IMF is pressing for further debasement and a fuel hike.

http://www.vanguardngr.c...itions-tough-handle-fg/

KE has taken two precautionary loans in two years, will it find itself in the same predicament in one years time?

African currencies are having a torrid time especially the ones with fixed pegs. The Egyptian pound is falling like a rock and is still expected to fall some more.
Quote:
Abdel Aal expects the CBE to follow the controlled flotation and drop the Egyptian pound’s value down against the US dollar by 30%, either once or twice.

More fx expenditures than revenue means the CBE doesn't have the ammo to float the currency despite the IMF's insistence.

The next 18-24 months are promising to be excruciating for developing economies and their currencies more so the African ones.

The fx market is a reliable pulse reader of coming moves in the financial world. Recent actions imply some heavy weight action is on the way probably in the bond market.
http://www.dailynewsegyp...ial-request-borrow-imf/


Take 3: at the bottom of the the sovereign bond barrel, Mozambique officially issues an SOS to its creditors. Will it be a soft default via debt restructuring as so desired or an outright default? Either way it has good company in the form of Venezuela.

Their debt to GDP ratio is projected to close at 130% by end of 2016. A developed nation can try to juggle this kind of debt, but for a developing economy it is toxic. This has grown from 62.4% in 2014, 53.1% in 2013 and 38.1% in 2011. Ring a bell? KE had better watch out. Things went south in a two year window and now they are in distress.

The metical lost 30% vs the dollar in 2015 and a further 70% this year which ballooned their debt. With inflation at a scorching 16.7% (from 2.4% in 2015), the BdM has hiked its rate to circa 23%.

http://www.wsj.com/artic...estructuring-1477418742

EA economies and currencies have held their ground quite admirably in 2016, will they manage the same feat?

Take 4: Bank of Ghana cuts its rate (cbr equivalent) to 25.5% from 26%. Inflation still at a head spinning 15.8%. Cedi is a little stable but still skidding nonetheless.
http://www.bloomberg.com...k-first-time-since-2011
Considering the fate of pegs and caps is always the same i.e. they both fall by the wayside eventually, the KE interest rate caps are going to have a short shelf life.

In addition, looked at through the global 5000 year prism, interest rates are set to rise - caps or no caps.

If we get crazy inflation next year and KES weakens excessively vs USD, the caps are going to look ridiculous at some point.

Take 5: Libya is still smouldering 5 years after the uprising. One hell of a devaluation awaits the dinar.
Quote:
The dinar has been steadily weakening on the black market over the past year as the nation’s political rifts thwarted a recovery in oil output. It hit a record low of 7 to the dollar this week, according to currency dealers in Tripoli. The official rate is 1.4.

Inflation is North of 20%.

https://t.co/mwK9jiw6fD

Can't catch a break now, can they?

on this one, the mess was created, intentionally, by Big Brother and allies Sad Sad Sad
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
lochaz-index
#5028 Posted : Friday, November 25, 2016 8:34:20 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Angelica _ann wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
The naira has been through one tough roller coaster. The official devaluation downgraded it from 190 to 300+ vs the dollar in four months(June through to September) whilst the black market rate is still north of 400 having clocked a gruesome 436 about two weeks ago.

Having extended a zero interest loan to Nigeria, the IMF is pressing for further debasement and a fuel hike.

http://www.vanguardngr.c...itions-tough-handle-fg/

KE has taken two precautionary loans in two years, will it find itself in the same predicament in one years time?

African currencies are having a torrid time especially the ones with fixed pegs. The Egyptian pound is falling like a rock and is still expected to fall some more.
Quote:
Abdel Aal expects the CBE to follow the controlled flotation and drop the Egyptian pound’s value down against the US dollar by 30%, either once or twice.

More fx expenditures than revenue means the CBE doesn't have the ammo to float the currency despite the IMF's insistence.

The next 18-24 months are promising to be excruciating for developing economies and their currencies more so the African ones.

The fx market is a reliable pulse reader of coming moves in the financial world. Recent actions imply some heavy weight action is on the way probably in the bond market.
http://www.dailynewsegyp...ial-request-borrow-imf/


Take 3: at the bottom of the the sovereign bond barrel, Mozambique officially issues an SOS to its creditors. Will it be a soft default via debt restructuring as so desired or an outright default? Either way it has good company in the form of Venezuela.

Their debt to GDP ratio is projected to close at 130% by end of 2016. A developed nation can try to juggle this kind of debt, but for a developing economy it is toxic. This has grown from 62.4% in 2014, 53.1% in 2013 and 38.1% in 2011. Ring a bell? KE had better watch out. Things went south in a two year window and now they are in distress.

The metical lost 30% vs the dollar in 2015 and a further 70% this year which ballooned their debt. With inflation at a scorching 16.7% (from 2.4% in 2015), the BdM has hiked its rate to circa 23%.

http://www.wsj.com/artic...estructuring-1477418742

EA economies and currencies have held their ground quite admirably in 2016, will they manage the same feat?

Take 4: Bank of Ghana cuts its rate (cbr equivalent) to 25.5% from 26%. Inflation still at a head spinning 15.8%. Cedi is a little stable but still skidding nonetheless.
http://www.bloomberg.com...k-first-time-since-2011
Considering the fate of pegs and caps is always the same i.e. they both fall by the wayside eventually, the KE interest rate caps are going to have a short shelf life.

In addition, looked at through the global 5000 year prism, interest rates are set to rise - caps or no caps.

If we get crazy inflation next year and KES weakens excessively vs USD, the caps are going to look ridiculous at some point.

Take 5: Libya is still smouldering 5 years after the uprising. One hell of a devaluation awaits the dinar.
Quote:
The dinar has been steadily weakening on the black market over the past year as the nation’s political rifts thwarted a recovery in oil output. It hit a record low of 7 to the dollar this week, according to currency dealers in Tripoli. The official rate is 1.4.

Inflation is North of 20%.

https://t.co/mwK9jiw6fD

Can't catch a break now, can they?

on this one, the mess was created, intentionally, by Big Brother and allies Sad Sad Sad

True, but international influence/interference is always there either explicitly or implicitly. This can be effected through international shylocks (think IMF and World Bank arm twisting ways), international banks(think Mozambique's tuna bond via Credit Suisse and VTB), international economic hit men/political mercenaries etc.

The result is the same irrespective of the tactic of choice. Libya and other Arab nations bore the brunt of schemes that got unearthed by the commoner.

Current dinar slide is a funding/revenue squeeze just like other commodity/oil dependent economies are experiencing.

Which banks arranged KE's euro bond? Both IMF and WB have made themselves comfy in KE in the last three years or so. Same script.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
lochaz-index
#5029 Posted : Friday, November 25, 2016 9:37:14 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Faced with an existential and a credibility crisis, mainstream media choose to dig in their heels and pick a fight with alternative media outlets. The war is global and its on. The fallout from the US election is a gift that keeps on giving keeps on giving.

What do they say about hubris? Poor timing by the MSM to ruffle the alt media feathers. I like a good underdog story, some big boys are going to bite the dust.

https://www.ft.com/conte...-11e6-a37c-f4a01f1b0fa1

Waiting for an epic giant slaying episode if the big boys keep poking the hornets' nest.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
lochaz-index
#5030 Posted : Friday, December 02, 2016 11:28:07 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
India's govt pulled a bone-headed move by demonetizing 86% of the nation's currency all in the guise of fighting corruption while the real aim is to increase the tax net. They have unwittingly given the masses a rope by which the establishment will be hanged.

India was poised to be the best performing of the larger economies in 2017 @circa 7% just ahead of China. In light of the recent developments, it will be hard to register anything above 3%. As if that is not bad enough, the policy whose aim was to increase govt revenue will end up drastically reducing it.

People and businesses with capital have the following choices;

1. Go underground completely to the extent of shunning the new 'compliant' currency notes and resort to barter trade. This will boost the so called black economy that demonetization aimed to eradicate.

2. Look for the nearest exit out of India causing high demand for fx.

3. A combination of the two both of which would be the cause and/or result of hyperinflation.

How the PM thought the policy was inspired is beyond me.
http://www.economist.com...y?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/

In a twisted way, the govt has effectively cannibalised businesses in India through an indirect bail-in of their cash and cash reserves. Funny world this one where emerging economies are emulating or radicalizing failed policies effected by stagnating/collapsing advanced markets.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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