Wazua
»
Investor
»
Economy
»
Investors Lounge
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
|
lochaz-index wrote:The naira has been through one tough roller coaster. The official devaluation downgraded it from 190 to 300+ vs the dollar in four months(June through to September) whilst the black market rate is still north of 400 having clocked a gruesome 436 about two weeks ago. Having extended a zero interest loan to Nigeria, the IMF is pressing for further debasement and a fuel hike. http://www.vanguardngr.c...itions-tough-handle-fg/
KE has taken two precautionary loans in two years, will it find itself in the same predicament in one years time? The wild ride down continues. Now they are threatening black market traders with arrest. Black market rate is @460 to the dollar. http://www.bloomberg.com...-dealers-weakening-nairaThe main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
|
hisah wrote:Getting ready for one heck of a dizzy rally!!! The Trump Rocket! Cartoonist do you see that W formation on the weekly chart   The expected outcome... Courtesy of Stock Chart Patterns  Contrary to popular belief and expectation this rally is going to be epic. The market had stagnated for two years with no clear direction. The breakout either down or up was always going to be huge. Now that the market has shot upwards there is no limit to the upside. Retail participation is still low after most of them got smacked during the GFC, when the crowd gets in on the action this bull run will beggar belief. Plus if Trump institutes tax cuts, repatriation of profits will add more fuel to it. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
|
hisah wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Mainstream media and the establishment cartels are not doing themselves any favors. The sting of loss in the Brexit vote appears not to have initiated any soul searching.
The US election served as quick reminder that they are on wrong side of the script but I guess old habits die hard. Fooling people all the time has always proved to be a tall order. I see no exceptions this time.
Major changes are underway in the medium term. The classical perma-bear or perma-bull syndrome where one keeps fighting the trend until they blow up the account 
Media companies and corresponding ETF's are going to be good shorting candidates until they change their errant ways or they die off. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
|
lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:US markets being setup just like FTSE. Brexit 2.0 coming up. As usual the initial reaction post election results will trap the market participants! Get ready for a dizzy rally when the dust settles... This particular breakout will be a major one. US indices have been in stagnation mode for the better part of two years (since 2014). A few scares or flash crashes here and there but largely no movement. As if that was not enough both the dollar index and bond yields are also exhibiting a change in trend. It will be one heck of a market if all three breakout with aplomb at the same time. A hatrick of breakouts it is. Equities climb higher, dollar starts its rally and a bond sell off begins. As rates mean revert, the pain will be widespread. KE should completely forget about Euro bond 2.0 unless it is hellbent on suicidal action/borrowing. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
|
lochaz-index wrote:lochaz-index wrote:The naira has been through one tough roller coaster. The official devaluation downgraded it from 190 to 300+ vs the dollar in four months(June through to September) whilst the black market rate is still north of 400 having clocked a gruesome 436 about two weeks ago. Having extended a zero interest loan to Nigeria, the IMF is pressing for further debasement and a fuel hike. http://www.vanguardngr.c...itions-tough-handle-fg/
KE has taken two precautionary loans in two years, will it find itself in the same predicament in one years time? The wild ride down continues. Now they are threatening black market traders with arrest. Black market rate is @460 to the dollar. http://www.bloomberg.com...dealers-weakening-naira
All this is happening before the USD starts the dizzy climb! The naira will be clobbered badly. If oil slips below $30 the naira will easily crater towards 1000 vs USD with crazy inflation to boot. By then the sitting regime will be facing civil unrest. Militant rule will make a comeback. Such a sad state of affairs.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
|
lochaz-index wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:hisah wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Yuan headed to GFC levels yet there is no market reaction! In the meantime, China has massaged its GDP numbers to read 6.7% for one too many quarters. Every CB is staring at the deflation monster and sweating. Who will fall first? Whoever that CB will be, the outcome will send a nasty shockwave into the system. While fate decides that outcome, currency devaluation is the only way out. USD will continue to gain as all debtors run around trying to pay down their debt. This is spiking the demand for the scarce USD.
Next stop, helicopter money as the bulldozer option to face this ugly deflation monster! What deflation? Get OPEC to raise inflation and there you have it. December prick the bubbles. Easy A moderated 6 clip growth or beating nought point growth expectations, choose. Deflation is here and/or coming in all shapes and sizes; from imminent debt defaults, technology driven disruptions, aging populations, sagging social schemes, unconventional policies(NIRP etc), poor long term economic outlooks (for advanced economies) and so forth. Managing such, is beyond any entity despite their proclamations to the contrary. The global economy can be Japanized pretty quick, some for longer periods than others (years vs decades). To the best of my knowledge, devaluation of currencies in the current environment is a zero sum game. With both world trade and world economic growth at 15 year lows there will be no winner, just a bunch of people holding worthless paper. Not that it will stop most from trying but the end game is a lose-lose outcome. With regards to oil, I am still waiting for it at below $20pb. As per usual, the PBoC takes advantage of global events to let the Yuan slide lower...currently at 6.81 vs its peg of 6.83. Its reserves have also tanked to 2011 lows. M2 to reserves ratio says there not enough CB ammo to put out the fire. A stronger dollar too suggests that the time to let the peg go has arrived on both ends of the trade. http://www.bloomberg.com...s-since-january-turmoil
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 3/23/2011 Posts: 304
|
http://www.wsj.com/artic...e-dodd-frank-1478800611
Banks must be a happy lot....financial sector in US about to lead the rally.... You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
|
lochaz-index wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:hisah wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Yuan headed to GFC levels yet there is no market reaction! In the meantime, China has massaged its GDP numbers to read 6.7% for one too many quarters. Every CB is staring at the deflation monster and sweating. Who will fall first? Whoever that CB will be, the outcome will send a nasty shockwave into the system. While fate decides that outcome, currency devaluation is the only way out. USD will continue to gain as all debtors run around trying to pay down their debt. This is spiking the demand for the scarce USD.
Next stop, helicopter money as the bulldozer option to face this ugly deflation monster! What deflation? Get OPEC to raise inflation and there you have it. December prick the bubbles. Easy A moderated 6 clip growth or beating nought point growth expectations, choose. Deflation is here and/or coming in all shapes and sizes; from imminent debt defaults, technology driven disruptions, aging populations, sagging social schemes, unconventional policies(NIRP etc), poor long term economic outlooks (for advanced economies) and so forth. Managing such, is beyond any entity despite their proclamations to the contrary. The global economy can be Japanized pretty quick, some for longer periods than others (years vs decades). To the best of my knowledge, devaluation of currencies in the current environment is a zero sum game. With both world trade and world economic growth at 15 year lows there will be no winner, just a bunch of people holding worthless paper. Not that it will stop most from trying but the end game is a lose-lose outcome. With regards to oil, I am still waiting for it at below $20pb. As per usual, the PBoC takes advantage of global events to let the Yuan slide lower...currently at 6.81 vs its peg of 6.83. Its reserves have also tanked to 2011 lows. M2 to reserves ratio says there not enough CB ammo to put out the fire. A stronger dollar too suggests that the time to let the peg go has arrived on both ends of the trade. http://www.bloomberg.com...s-since-january-turmoil
Maintaining USD pegs in this environment is a zero sum game. Fighting this trend will just fry any CBs reserves. $/Yuan looks poised to hit the 8 handle as the devaluation drama continues. Long way to go! When the sovereign bond drama starts to accelerate, G20 will be holed in a meeting telling the Fed to halt the USD charge. Will they play it like 1985?$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 3/23/2011 Posts: 304
|
FFR futures pricing an 89% chance for a December Rate Hike. DXY just touched 100. You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 3/23/2011 Posts: 304
|
alutacontinua wrote:FFR futures pricing an 89% chance for a December Rate Hike. DXY just touched 100. Pension Partners Rate Hike Odds: Dec 16 - 86% Feb 17 - 86% Mar 17 - 88% May 17 - 89% Jun 17 - 93% Jul 17 - 94% With these kind of odds USD is aiming for infinity and beyond  You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
|
|
|
Wazua
»
Investor
»
Economy
»
Investors Lounge
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.
|