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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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mnandii
#491 Posted : Monday, June 22, 2015 10:44:17 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
obiero wrote:
Wait.. Hon Emilio almost broke 60 on KES-USD.. That was quite a feat


smile smile

@obiero, mos mos jatelo!
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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hisah
#492 Posted : Tuesday, June 23, 2015 10:32:15 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Watch out for Mpesa bank. This thing will starting throwing spanners in the works soon! The 3yr chart is showing distribution signs. Downside target around 13.50 - 14 before heading lower.

As for financials H1 results are around the corner. NPLs in focus.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#493 Posted : Tuesday, June 23, 2015 11:53:01 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
hisah wrote:
Watch out for Mpesa bank. This thing will starting throwing spanners in the works soon! The 3yr chart is showing distribution signs. Downside target around 13.50 - 14 before heading lower.

As for financials H1 results are around the corner. NPLs in focus.

If the tightening continues, then this will be a reality.
#LongTimeComing
@SufficientlyP
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hisah
#494 Posted : Tuesday, June 23, 2015 1:09:18 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
hisah wrote:
Watch out for Mpesa bank. This thing will starting throwing spanners in the works soon! The 3yr chart is showing distribution signs. Downside target around 13.50 - 14 before heading lower.

As for financials H1 results are around the corner. NPLs in focus.

If the tightening continues, then this will be a reality.
#LongTimeComing

More liquidity squeeze will ensure that NSE20 heads below 4000 level. I have no idea what treasury is up to with KE econ on the ropes. Something doesn't add up with this budget, but I can't place a finger on what it is for now.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mnandii
#495 Posted : Monday, July 06, 2015 4:59:34 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
So the Greeks have voted in an exact Fibonacci Proportion (the Golden Ratio)? smile

61.3% VS 38.7%



Quote:
Greek voters have decisively rejected the terms of an international bailout. he final result in the referendum, published by the interior ministry, was 61.3% "No", against 38.7% who voted "Yes".
Greece's governing Syriza party had campaigned for a "No", saying the bailout terms were humiliating.


BBC link
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#496 Posted : Monday, July 06, 2015 5:19:30 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304


Bitcoin. Waiting for a break above $451.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#497 Posted : Monday, July 06, 2015 5:23:43 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
mnandii wrote:


Bitcoin. Waiting for a break above $451.


There is an alternate count calling for a move below $150. So we watch out.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#498 Posted : Monday, July 06, 2015 5:25:20 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Bitcoin. Waiting for a break above $451.


There is an alternate count calling for a move below $150. So we watch out.


To see the image better, right click on it > open image in a new tab.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#499 Posted : Monday, July 06, 2015 6:46:21 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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hisah
#500 Posted : Tuesday, July 07, 2015 8:24:12 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
mnandii wrote:
hisah wrote:
@mnandii - I'm on the opposite side of your USDKES view. The KE econ is on slow puncture tyres. Where is the KES strength going to come from? That CBR rate hike was meant to scare the bears, but should USD breach 100 handle we are off to the all time highs! Can cbk afford another dramatic CBR hike of 150bps or more this year with the econ facing headwinds?

It is for these 2 reasons that I've now turned defensive in the market. CBR hike means liquidity squeeze/drain which knocks the econ while a crimped economy offers no incentive for a bullish case on equities.



smile smile

We get to watch btw Fundies and Elliott who gets it right. I like this!

2 weeks later and USDKES has broken above the 100 psychological handle.

MPC meets today. I don't expect any positive stuff from the new cbk head. The econ slump has put MPC in a straitjacket fix.

USDKES will test that all time high and break above. That's when the real pain will start.

I'm selling out of the NSE since I don't want to participate in the carnage I foresee coming once 4400 handle breaks down. My final sell signal has triggered with USDKES closing above 100 handle. If the econ slump accelerates, which I expect, by Sept end NSE20 will be testing 4000 handle or lower! Global markets will also be lower by that Sept.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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