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Effective duration and Convexity of bonds
Scubidu
#41 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 8:52:26 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
Yes scooby. I'm aware of Tier II capital. However, in most cases to the best my knowledge from Barclays to CFC to I&M, most subordinate debt did not exceed 50% of core capital. I assumed this is a regulatory rule considering some banks disclose that requirement in their books. We had a brief conversation about this a while ago (refer to link below).

http://www.wazua.com/for...osts&t=6126&p=5

But if you're right then what stops other banks like Barclays issuing debt capital that exceeds equity? So equity is capitalised at 25b. HF raise about 175% its core capital. So could Barclays theoretically issue more than 15b in debt and add it to its tier II capital?

KCB had initially considered raising 15b from a bond if I'm not mistaken, why did they change there mind. Perhaps realistically they couldn't raise more than 11b and it seems they didn't what to issue it in tranches, possibly the primary reason for choosing equity to raise the 15b in one go.

Their objective was to raise capital? Perhaps HF's objective was to raise long term funds. What you think? I'm more concerned about the HF's finance costs based on the debt:equity ratio/leverage than why HF were allowed to issue so much debt?
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scooby
#42 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 9:31:10 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
Scubidu,

I don't think a bank would want to issue either shares or debt if they already meet the minimum capital requirement. FYI, Barclays did issue the first tranche (Shs. 5 billion) of a Shs. 12 billion subordinated debt in 2007/2008.

Also, its not about the level of capital that you have, but how well you put your capital to use. Equity Bank is currently trying to figure out how to use its large capital base hence their big interest in Housing Finance.

For KCB, the decision for opt for debt or equity is purely a management decision. Maybe they decided to have a rights issue first then a debt issue later..like what HF did.

For HF, you shouldn't be worried about financing costs. Look at Net Interest Income instead...which compares the interest income earned on the mortgages to the cost of funding deposits/debts.
CapitalMarketsGeek
#43 Posted : Wednesday, September 29, 2010 1:35:09 AM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 9/11/2010
Posts: 36
Scooby and Scobidu...
If the company issued more debt and could actually raise capital using debt, then thats great coz debt financing is cheaper than equity financing thats why companies prefer debt finance over equity finance. The only thing that stop a company from being 100% debt financed is that there is a point in a capital structure model above which financial distress is imminent and its well over 50% debt but varies btw industries.
Scubidu
#44 Posted : Wednesday, September 29, 2010 11:15:55 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
Cool scooby. I'm actually looking at the interest margin for Q2 which wasn't really good, but i hope HF can translate those funds into revenue. They don't seem to hold much govt debt so i hope they have good liquidity in future to leverage on their capital base.

http://www.basel-ii-acco...uents_of_capital_49.htm

@CMG. Debt financing is indeed cheaper in terms of the intermediary costs vs bank loans. But with banks like HF I'm wondering whether leverage is really the best thing, given the statement some guys have made on real estate on the basel post.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scooby
#45 Posted : Wednesday, September 29, 2010 4:51:54 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
Scubidu,

I started to get worried about a decline in HF's net interest rate margin as from 2008. If you remember, that's when they started issuing mortgage packages to various companies at ridiculuosly low interest rates.

For instance, Nation Media staff were being granted loans at 7%. Here is the link that am referring to - http://www.housing.co.ke...=newsevents&sid=95.

So, one would realise that any funds allocated by HF to such schemes are actually loosing money assuming its cost of obtaining the funds is 8.5% (i.e. for this bond).

Regards
Wa_ithaka
#46 Posted : Wednesday, September 29, 2010 5:00:02 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
HFCK bond objective is to match fund its mortgage book.
So, yes if its borrowing at 8.5% and lending at 7.5%, that is not prudent or clever. And should be of concern to CBK assuming Njuguna knows what time it is
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
mwanahisa
#47 Posted : Wednesday, September 29, 2010 5:02:01 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Scooby,

I thought the only reason that HF was providing those ultra low interest mortgages was because the employer was putting up the funds. HF was only administering the loans and collecting a fee for it.
Scooby
#48 Posted : Wednesday, September 29, 2010 5:12:53 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
Mwanahisa,

There has been this rivalry and/or competition between HF and Savings & Loan in terms of getting as many mortgage customers as possible.

They would enter into a deal with a certain company to ensure that most, if not all, of its employees get a mortgage from that company. In return, the employees get mortgages at higher LTVs and "concessionary" interest rates.

S & L had a similar deal with companies like CMA at around the same time. I haven't heard of such deals this year...

Regards
Scubidu
#49 Posted : Wednesday, September 29, 2010 5:28:38 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
@scoobs. So this is the problem i was trying to understand. Why were they allowed to raise so much in one go? Just to extend long term funding+small increase in capital.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scooby
#50 Posted : Wednesday, September 29, 2010 5:47:50 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
Scubidu,

I wouldn't be so worried about how much they are trying to raise as it is within the range of what has been or will be issued over time.

If you notice the trend - HF is 10 billion, Barclays is 12 billion, CfC Stanbic will be 5 billion and KCB was planned to be 15 billion.

My simplistic approach to this bond issue is this - where would I get a better return i.e. as a shareholder or bond holder. This is based on whats going on with the mortgage sector and the economy as a whole.

Regards


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