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NSE SHARES PERFORMANCE: THREE YEAR FORECAST WITH 2012 IN MIND
mkonomtupu
#41 Posted : Thursday, February 11, 2010 11:08:22 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
Guru, I agree growth stocks tend to have a high P/e. I would go for growth stocks with good management maybe P/E of 12-16 for the kenyan market in this environment. I would go for P/E of 20 if the company had a solid regional strategy. My take on safaricom, it looks attractive if you are a foreign investor looking for a safe bet in a frontier market. Its highly liquid for quick exit.
Waiting to see the KCB results, looks like S&L will do better than HFCK in financing new housing projects. Medium term stock.
2012
#42 Posted : Thursday, February 11, 2010 2:06:57 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
mkonomtupu wrote:
looks like S&L will do better than HFCK in financing new housing projects. Medium term stock.



Which projects have been done by S&L?

BBI will solve it
:)
VituVingiSana
#43 Posted : Thursday, February 11, 2010 3:52:33 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,353
Location: Nairobi
IMHO, even after accounting for growth... I will stay out of safaricom until it touches 5/- (which it may not)

Even if I buy safaricom at 5.50 what is my best hope? I can get 10% in T-Bonds in 1 year. So unless safaricom hits 6.15 (including dividend income & excludes commission costs)... why bother?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
chaliwong
#44 Posted : Thursday, February 11, 2010 7:10:08 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 1/10/2010
Posts: 73
Location: kenya
This soko of ours ni ya aina yake pekee.

I've decided, kama hakuna double digit profit growth I'm not buying hata kama the company is still making profits.

Look at financials, growth siku hizi ni 2%, 4%.... (isipokuwa stachart - lakini angalia bei na liquidity yake. Huwezi kutegemea)

When I operate kienyeji, I'm happy with the results.
Nikifikiria sana, napoteza.

Leo nimesukuma Kengen inje mpaka 2012(nanunua na yeye anakopa tu.)x

If there is economic growth then I'm going for profit growth.
the deal
#45 Posted : Thursday, February 11, 2010 7:51:42 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Wazua is so queit today...this down trend is starting to press my panic buttons...is this just a market correction or are we on a bear run? Chaliwong wasup wit the swahili u r locking us out of the chat...@ vvs safcom just need to consolidated their shares moving forward the future is great while its competitors r focused on nairobi safcom is targeting the rural areas i.e nanyuki the untaped market is big...
sparkly
#46 Posted : Thursday, February 11, 2010 9:50:13 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Cicero wrote:
@guru267thank you for the advice & the other honourable wazurians. Infact, i will get rid of sasini & kengen n report back say in a wks time. The i'll get more into KQ, safaricon & any other u may advice. ...

@cicero sell KENGEN at a loss, and buy overpriced KQ and SAFCOM? You are investing with your heart, not your mind! KENGEN is investing in wind and geothermal, energy is under invested in kenya, KENGEN is a monopoly utility, trading at near all time lows. In the next 5-10 years shareholders will be laughing all... 5 years is not long. Meanwhile as sweet as saf looks, who knows it might be slaughtered by Yu in 2 years. Thats the nature of technology.
Life is short. Live passionately.
VituVingiSana
#47 Posted : Thursday, February 11, 2010 11:10:40 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,353
Location: Nairobi
@sparkly - KenGen is a long-term play & they need to raise cash for their investments... IMHO, they are over-priced vs KQ considering 1-3 year prospects...

After 3 years when the various generation projects start producing cash, then the story may change...

Wind will take 1-3 years to be up & running...
Geothermal 3-5 years...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
guru267
#48 Posted : Friday, February 12, 2010 5:37:04 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
IMHO, even after accounting for growth... I will stay out of safaricom until it touches 5/- (which it may not)

Even if I buy safaricom at 5.50 what is my best hope? I can get 10% in T-Bonds in 1 year. So unless safaricom hits 6.15 (including dividend income & excludes commission costs)... why bother?



@VVS my friend i wanna place a bet with you because your underestimating this counter... i wouldnt want you to lose out with this.... safcom WILL be at 7bob+ at least by the end of march... nothing less
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
guru267
#49 Posted : Friday, February 12, 2010 5:44:41 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
Wazua is so queit today...this down trend is starting to press my panic buttons...is this just a market correction or are we on a bear run? Chaliwong wasup wit the swahili u r locking us out of the chat...@ vvs safcom just need to consolidated their shares moving forward the future is great while its competitors r focused on nairobi safcom is targeting the rural areas i.e nanyuki the untaped market is big...


there is no bear run at the moment... this current oscillation is just the bears and bulls fighting each other... this usually happens just before results are announced.. i think the market needs a few numbers out before it finds direction...
i dint view this recent "bull run" as one but more as a revaluation of beaten up stock prices...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mkonomtupu
#50 Posted : Friday, February 12, 2010 6:06:12 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
2012, I was looking at KCB's S&L and HFCK from their p/e and the regional strategy. Previously S&L had a lending capacity of Kshs.250million. Following its amalgamation into KCB it can leverage on KCB's balance of 185billion to lend to a single borrower at 25% of core capital. Look at the deal with the South sudan government to finance 1750 housing units for civil servants. The entire deal is about 35.3 billion(Us $452m) with kshs 3.1 billion being financed this year.So in terms on new projects it has solid edge against HF which has a high p/e and restricted to the kenyan market.
As the MD said in the annual report "KCB Sudan has confounded all by standing out as prime investment for the Group. After only two-and-half years in operation and 3 branches, the business boasts an impressive Kshs 10 billion balance sheet and profit before tax of Kshs. 530 million." Can HF beat that.
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