Unless Munya's strategy of dividing subtribes works, it may not amount to much for NASA. NASA should not be cheated to assume Munya voters = NASA voters. The Aug governor outcome in Meru was based on competition among sub-tribes. It did not work effectively for Munya since the Imenti had more registered voters than Tigania and Igembe, combined. His strategy was of him being a warrior who was going to battle the others to bring home the win. The "others" felt they needed to respond and voted overwhelmingly as a block. A different thing occurred with women rep. The jubilee candidate there lost traction when she told women that the cabbages and potatoes donated by the competitor were to make them "majimaji." This was why his partners dropped the tripartite campaign, dropping the women rep even in posters on the excuse that the women rep campaigns had become too hot for them.

On president, Meru Nasarites are quite vocal, but they are seriously outnumbered. Another issue is that most of Meru Nasarites are the middle class who are likely to be registered in Kajiado, Nairobi, Kiambu etc. Those registered in Meru are mainly "watu wa Nairobi" or the "elite" who are generally considered out of touch with the grassroots. The grassroot guys like humilating these other guys. One MCA was felled when "watu wa nairobi" started campaigning for him, akaambiwa watu wao hao wampigie kura.

NASA can however make a dent in Meru if they engage grassroot mobilizers. They should forget the elite who have always campaigned for them and do serious ground work to counter the "Mount Kenya Mafia" characterisation. The grassroot guys are the guys who can speak to the people in a language closer to their hearts and allay fears of marginalization in a NASA government. NASA can use Munya's money (he now has money compared to 2013 when he was a Kiraitu protégé) to recruit these grassroot campaigners. But, if they go to Meru with a "thieves" rhetoric that Munya is advancing, I do not see any hope.

A lot of the other candidates from both sides especially MP’s and MCA’s had imported voters and encouraged them to register in their areas, they then mobilized them to vote on nane nane.. Will they mobilize again?
I predict voter turnout will be not more than 12M

Unless Munya's strategy of dividing subtribes works, it may not amount to much for NASA. NASA should not be cheated to assume Munya voters = NASA voters. The Aug governor outcome in Meru was based on competition among sub-tribes. It did not work effectively for Munya since the Imenti had more registered voters than Tigania and Igembe, combined. His strategy was of him being a warrior who was going to battle the others to bring home the win. The "others" felt they needed to respond and voted overwhelmingly as a block. A different thing occurred with women rep. The jubilee candidate there lost traction when she told women that the cabbages and potatoes donated by the competitor were to make them "majimaji." This was why his partners dropped the tripartite campaign, dropping the women rep even in posters on the excuse that the women rep campaigns had become too hot for them.

On president, Meru Nasarites are quite vocal, but they are seriously outnumbered. Another issue is that most of Meru Nasarites are the middle class who are likely to be registered in Kajiado, Nairobi, Kiambu etc. Those registered in Meru are mainly "watu wa Nairobi" or the "elite" who are generally considered out of touch with the grassroots. The grassroot guys like humilating these other guys. One MCA was felled when "watu wa nairobi" started campaigning for him, akaambiwa watu wao hao wampigie kura.

NASA can however make a dent in Meru if they engage grassroot mobilizers. They should forget the elite who have always campaigned for them and do serious ground work to counter the "Mount Kenya Mafia" characterisation. The grassroot guys are the guys who can speak to the people in a language closer to their hearts and allay fears of marginalization in a NASA government. NASA can use Munya's money (he now has money compared to 2013 when he was a Kiraitu protégé) to recruit these grassroot campaigners. But, if they go to Meru with a "thieves" rhetoric that Munya is advancing, I do not see any hope.

I like your assessment. The Imenti vs Tigani/Igembe divide is real.

The southern Ameru are also not in the mix

Munya has money from where? He must have exhausted it in his campaigns