lochaz-index wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:By the way, the strong USD has caused a lot of pain and grief to net importer nations as well as commodity rich ones.
Before the USD took off, cbr and inflation rate would be at the same levels or thereabout. For the longest, we had our cbr at 6.25% which is where i believe we should have been now that inflation rate is at 6.45%. but not possible since we have the Eurobond to pay and Gov.Njoroge has to continue punishing us by leaving the cbr at 11.50 so as to tame this USD monster and keep it below 107.
At times i wonder if small banks like chase had branches in South sudan where Equity and KCb each took a 6b shaving from the SSP devaluation. Would they have lived to tell the story?
I also don't expect the cbr to change in the meantime. The governor knows his craft and he expects an even stronger usd(precautionary loan taken to aid on that front) not to mention that he is an inflation freak.
Apparently we are conducting a roadshow to test the waters for the second eurobond as the guinea pigs for other African states. I can't see this ending well. Dollar shortage is real and it is not a problem we would want to have.
On matters ssp, it hit 48 at one point and is currently at about 28, what was the rate used by banks to account for the devaluation? Compounding matters is the discrepancy between the official rate and the black market.
Governor Njoroge has no option but to bring down cbr from up there otherwise expect more chase Banks to go under
As for the Eurobond, i can only wish them well since they are already 20% plus in currency devaluation vs the USD. In trading, we say that you shouldn't add to a losing position
On the SSP shocking to hear its at 28 vs USD as it was trading at around 18.5 at end year in the black market while the official rate was around 2.9
We await their Q1 print!
@SufficientlyP