@ mlennyma. This is the current information(as by end of day 15th April 2016) including past predictions. it is a road we have traveled so far since first analysis.

as Spikes put it, consult your instincts.

if the wave count is right, I highly doubt a rally above today's high of 14 is possible even with good news. remember kegn on octomber 13th 2015. its management announced huge profit but still had to respect the wave principal and proceeded downward.

Why to buy/hold kcb
Kcb started its 1st Elliott wave on 20th jan 2016 after completing 5 impulse wave downtrend. The expectations after wave 5 are either:
1. ABC correction
2. Start of the 5 impulse wave in uptrend.
Kcb had wave( i) on 25th jan 2016, retraced to wave (ii) on 28th feb 2016 concurring with 61.8% Fibonacci level which is generally accepted as wave two level. The correction to wave (ii) was a zigzag pattern or what is generally referred as bullish gartley pattern by harmonic traders.

Targets projected from wave iv of 5 were, 1st target 40.5 and 2nd target 41.4 and 3rd 44.3
Wave (iii) started on 28th jan 2016 to 9th feb 2016 making its five impulse waves as shown on the chart below and ended at a high of 41.25 missing our projected target by 0.15 cents
Targets projected from the zigzag pattern on wave (ii) were 1st 39.4, 2nd 39.94, 3rd 41.4. Both 1st and 2nd target were exceeded. But missed the 3rdtarget with only 0.15 cents.
The altenative wave count is as shown on the chart below

Retracement started from a high of 41.25 to a low of 39 forming a complex and overlapping pattern (? Triangle). The low was 50% of wave 5 and 1 forming wave (2 or B) or 61.8% of wave (ii) and (iii) ruling out wave (iv) as shown below.

Rulling out wave (iv)


So now we are left with two options. We are expecting either wave 3 or wave c

Where are we on kcb wave?

Wave (i) of 3 or (i) of C ended at high of 42. Wave (ii) of 3 or (ii) of C is in the making. The end is expected at either 50% retracement (40.5) or 61.8% of (2 or B) TO ((i) of 3 or (i) of C) = (40.1).
Projected sell Targets will depend on the low that might be made on Monday 14th March 2016. If a low of 40.1 will be hit, then
1st target = 42.5
2nd = 43.2
3rd =45
4th = 48



UPDATE
let us revise the wave count following the last events. our 1st and 2nd targets were realized as predicted earlier.


where are we?
the current rally is believed to be working toward the end of wave 4 with the implication that the downtrend could be is incomplete. we have a regular flat pattern in place.(ABC)


expectatation
if the wave count is right, we might have the last leg of five wave down to hit the bottom to the following tentative targets

TARGET 1= 35.4
TARGET 2= 33.3
TARGET 3 = 27.3



Good highlights. Just as you had predicted about kk ,it never went past 12 or 13. Some of us were predicting a rally to 40.this analysis will help .👍

Thanks @karasinga.

Let me revise the last wave count. The last time update did not involve a possibility of an alternative wave count.
The high(14.4) made on 8th April 2016 may have completed either wave 4 of 5 or A OF 4 as shown below.



With this information available, btak has 2 probable options;
1. wave 5 of 5 which will be the last dip btak will make and BUY target 1= 8.8 target 2= 7.3 target 3= 2.9 or
2. wave B of 4. if this will be the case, expect either a regular flat(BUY PRICE 10(B OF 4) SELL PRICE 14.4(C OF 4)) OR running flat(BUY TARGET 8.8(B OF 4) SELL TARGET 13.1(C OF 4))

let us see what the market holds for us.

@karasinga your analysis is quite impressive. Keep up the good work. Amateur wave counters like me are drawing inspiration. If you have any advice on reliable chart sources and charting tools please share that we may sharpen our skills.