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KenolKobil HY 2015 net profit up 73%
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Aguytrying
#41 Posted : Wednesday, August 12, 2015 2:20:28 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
VituVingiSana wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
A sign of 8bob coming back is visible

That is good news but my broker says there is a lot of demand at 8.50 waiting in the wings. We don't see the real demand/supply for many counters.


I am more than sure in the next bull phase KK will more than double from the current price of 8.xy.

And is trading on a foward PE of 7 at the moment. This may not seem like much, until you compare with the previous 2 years. a testament to the growth in profit.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Metasploit
#42 Posted : Wednesday, August 12, 2015 2:20:29 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
VituVingiSana wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
A sign of 8bob coming back is visible

That is good news but my broker says there is a lot of demand at 8.50 waiting in the wings. We don't see the real demand/supply for many counters.

For those in this boat for the 'long' term... I am happier with lower prices. This is a play for for (post-election) 2018.


who is your broker chief ?

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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hisah
#43 Posted : Wednesday, August 12, 2015 3:03:26 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Mr Market's current mood doesn't support bulls. Good news will be sold, bad news will be sold until the cycle resets.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mlennyma
#44 Posted : Wednesday, August 12, 2015 3:08:22 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
hisah wrote:
Mr Market's current mood doesn't support bulls. Good news will be sold, bad news will be sold until the cycle resets.

true,it closed being hammered to 8.50
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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VituVingiSana
#45 Posted : Wednesday, August 12, 2015 3:14:56 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,350
Location: Nairobi
Metasploit wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
A sign of 8bob coming back is visible

That is good news but my broker says there is a lot of demand at 8.50 waiting in the wings. We don't see the real demand/supply for many counters.

For those in this boat for the 'long' term... I am happier with lower prices. This is a play for for (post-election) 2018.


who is your broker chief ?
The main 'supplier' of KK. Also the firm that is #1 for foreign trades. I think they do large crosses when they can i.e. they don't bid unless they can secure equivalent supply. Foreign buyers don't buy $2,000 blocks.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, August 12, 2015 3:16 PM | Reason: Not specified
VituVingiSana
#46 Posted : Wednesday, August 12, 2015 7:56:05 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,350
Location: Nairobi
https://www.youtube.com/...fE&feature=youtu.be

Ohana on CCTV

Reduction in KES debt by 1.4bn since Dec 2014
Current KES debt is 3bn but expected to be at 2bn by Dec 2015 & paid off by June 2016
Natural hedges (inflow in $ vs liabilities in $)
Focus on LPG, lubricants and milking assets [properties]
KK in a short position [they are buying fuel as prices drop]
Strong 2H expected
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Aguytrying
#47 Posted : Wednesday, August 12, 2015 9:26:18 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
VituVingiSana wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nP3KMAJkfE&feature=youtu.be

Ohana on CCTV

Reduction in KES debt by 1.4bn since Dec 2014
Current KES debt is 3bn but expected to be at 2bn by Dec 2015 & paid off by June 2016
Natural hedges (inflow in $ vs liabilities in $)
Focus on LPG, lubricants and milking assets [properties]
KK in a short position [they are buying fuel as prices drop]
Strong 2H expected


He's so in touch with the industry and the companies strategy.
Developing real estate at petrol stations will also increase retail fuel sales.

Are there any dollar denominated loans left?
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Aguytrying
#48 Posted : Wednesday, August 12, 2015 9:28:34 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
VituVingiSana wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nP3KMAJkfE&feature=youtu.be

Ohana on CCTV

Reduction in KES debt by 1.4bn since Dec 2014
Current KES debt is 3bn but expected to be at 2bn by Dec 2015 & paid off by June 2016
Natural hedges (inflow in $ vs liabilities in $)
Focus on LPG, lubricants and milking assets [properties]
KK in a short position [they are buying fuel as prices drop]
Strong 2H expected


He's so in touch with the industry and the companies strategy.
Developing real estate at petrol stations will also increase retail fuel sales.

Are there any dollar denominated loans left?
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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VituVingiSana
#49 Posted : Wednesday, August 12, 2015 11:13:19 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,350
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nP3KMAJkfE&feature=youtu.be

Ohana on CCTV

Reduction in KES debt by 1.4bn since Dec 2014
Current KES debt is 3bn but expected to be at 2bn by Dec 2015 & paid off by June 2016
Natural hedges (inflow in $ vs liabilities in $)
Focus on LPG, lubricants and milking assets [properties]
KK in a short position [they are buying fuel as prices drop]
Strong 2H expected


He's so in touch with the industry and the companies strategy.
Developing real estate at petrol stations will also increase retail fuel sales.

Are there any dollar denominated loans left?

Yes.
He said (of the 8.6bn in loans as shown on the Balance Sheet ) 3bn is in KES so the balance is in Forex [I assume most of it in USD].

The loans are for Working Capital [see the 2014 Annual Report] but they are 'naturally hedged' since they finance fuel inventories that is sold in USD [to airlines, subsidiaries and other OMCs] for the most part. The sales done in LCY is where KK assumes risk of they cannot adjust prices e.g. in Kenya the ERC changes prices monthly.

Ohana said July was very good and KK is on course to meet its targets for 2H. KK is 'short' fuel thus it can buy fuel at cheaper prices as prices drop vs those firms that are long i.e. have pricier stocks.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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mlennyma
#50 Posted : Wednesday, August 19, 2015 10:54:57 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
Good demand and weak supply .funny enough the weak supply is never wiped out.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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