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NSE IPO
VituVingiSana
#41 Posted : Sunday, July 13, 2014 1:10:00 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,358
Location: Nairobi
LMAO... So NSE has written back 115mn for recovery of doubtful debts? We should question what this is and what it was for... I have not looked at this in detail so I will speculate

1) There were brokers who were bailed out by NSE due to the influence of Jimnah Mbaru. Let's assume that these were 'loans' from NSE to the fallen brokers. The other NSE shareholders tried to kick them out, auction their licenses and take back the shares they owned in NSE

2)These 'fallen' brokers went to court and obtained a ruling that despite their 'fallen' status they still owned shares in NSE. This makes sense e.g. a bankrupt firm [e.g. Discount] that owns shares in another firm [e.g. NSE] does not lose the shares by going bankrupt.

3) Now that NSE is going public, these shares owned by the 'fallen' firms can be sold, the money will be used to pay off the creditors, one of which is NSE.

4) So the NSE recovers [or has told the auditors it will] the money and this is written back as profits for 2013. Check if the auditors have qualified the Financial Statements as regards this matter.

5) 2014 will be a good year for the NSE coz of the many Rights [DTB, Jubilee, NIC], the NSE IPO, etc but... it will not be enough to cover 115mn... to will it?

I am not jumping into the IPO until I have more info... A lot more info. In the meantime I hope the price of Centum or HFCK falls! I want back in.

Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
sparkly
#42 Posted : Sunday, July 13, 2014 2:12:39 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Tall Order wrote:
@Sparkly, what do you reckon? is NSE IPO a BUY?


I am a conservative investor. Going by @Aguy's analysis and @Mwekez@ji's link, I would adjust for the 2013 unusual item of 162m. Average the 2012 and 2013 earnings, multiple an expected PE of 10.

That gives a fair value of 5.50 IMO.
Life is short. Live passionately.
guru267
#43 Posted : Sunday, July 13, 2014 7:12:51 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
In the meantime I hope the price of Centum or HFCK falls! I want back in.


You might be waiting an eternity!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
VituVingiSana
#44 Posted : Sunday, July 13, 2014 8:24:43 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,358
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
In the meantime I hope the price of Centum or HFCK falls! I want back in.


You might be waiting an eternity!

That's OK. There was a market boom on the mid-late 90s when prices of shares jumped as inflation jumped. Then there was the boom in 2003-4. There was the run-up in 2008-10. Then there were crashes.

Have a look at these charts - hopefully they show up. Who knows what will happen next year? Or 2017? Or 2018?

http://live.mystocks.co....id=1405272152959;linked

http://live.mystocks.co....id=1405272243746;linked

If those who know how to post charts from myStocks, please post 10yr charts for HFCK and Centum.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#45 Posted : Sunday, July 13, 2014 8:27:52 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,358
Location: Nairobi
According to myStocks, HFCK was trading at 48.75 in Oct 2006. Is this pre-bonus? Has the price been adjusted for bonuses? I think there was a Rights Issue since 2006. When did Equity buy in?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Aguytrying
#46 Posted : Monday, July 14, 2014 8:11:36 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
VituVingiSana wrote:
According to myStocks, HFCK was trading at 48.75 in Oct 2006. Is this pre-bonus? Has the price been adjusted for bonuses? I think there was a Rights Issue since 2006. When did Equity buy in?


equity bought in 2007, together with britam. an international corporation sold its stake to them. and equity is exiting after 400% profit. So I'm guessing there have been some major corporate actions
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Aguytrying
#47 Posted : Monday, July 14, 2014 8:34:44 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@mwekezaji, VVS. thanks for highlighting that fact. so basically the 115m is an exceptional item that won't be there next year.
companies always shore up results before listing.
as @ sparkly said. dividing the 2012 and 2013 earnings may be a better way to judge. im not as enthusiastic as before. ill make a gut call when the hour is nigh.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
VituVingiSana
#48 Posted : Monday, July 14, 2014 9:01:57 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,358
Location: Nairobi
Morning @AGuy ... Well, if you recall those friends of @guru267 at HAFR decided to make the profits shine just BEFORE they listed. Don't forget the folks at Longhorn did the same. And both issued profit warnings soon after listing.

So the NSE has decided to 'boost' earnings before the listing. What would be rather amusing is if they had a profit warning after the listing! Though I doubt there will be a profit warning coz of the various Rights Issues [DTB, NIC, Jubilee] planned for 2014. Trading has been good in 1H 2014. Plus there may be a listing by the Rototank guys.

NBK may not make it in 2014. As for KenGen, I am not too sure either. Nevertheless, these will be great for interest in the NSE.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#49 Posted : Monday, July 14, 2014 10:16:15 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
@vvs, as requested. Herebelow find the Centum 10 year chart though mystocks only has data from mid 2006 to date. Each candlestick shows the high and low for each month with the green candlesticks showing an appreciation of prices and the red ones showing a decline.

@SufficientlyP
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#50 Posted : Monday, July 14, 2014 10:18:49 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
And now HF


@SufficientlyP
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