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TRACKING RISK
Scooby
#41 Posted : Tuesday, January 10, 2012 7:27:09 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
Scubidu wrote:
emlyn ngwiri wrote:
@scubidu, is the pinebridge 27 index a good index to value stocks


I talked to them. I don't have faith in an institution who can't commit a fund/portfolio tailered it's own index. Even though it incorporates dividend returns it's correlation with NSE 20 is almost 100%. As them for historical index levels and compare to NSE 20.


@emlyn and scubidu,

My assessment criteria for any index would include suitability and investability. I guess what scubidu is alluding to the second criteria.

In my view, the FTSE indices are kinda reliable than both the AIG and NSE 20 based on their criteria for including stocks in their index. In addition, its much easier to ascertain tracking risk from the FTSE indices than the two indices.

@ scubidu, have the AIG index ever adjusted their index in light of last year's IPOs and listings by introduction.

Regards
Scooby
#42 Posted : Tuesday, January 10, 2012 7:37:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
emlyn ngwiri wrote:
what i mean is arbitrage is sustained only for a short period before the forces of demand and supply regularise the situation.

Assume that a stock is trading in two markets simultaneously Kenya and Uganda. Suppose the stock is trading at kes 100 in the Ugandan market and kesh 98/- in Kenya. We simply buy a share for kesh 98 in Kenya and immediately sell it for kesh 100 in Uganda. We make an easy kes 2 at no risk and we did not have to put up any funds of our own. The sale of the stock at kesh 100 was more than adequate to finance the purchase of the stock at kesh 98.

hope im not too off

rgds


Emlyn,

Do you think that the Kshs. 2 difference could also be attributed to the relative illiquidity of the Ugandan market compared to Kenya?

I also think that the same illiquidity in the NSE bond market is contributing to the 300 bps difference between the NSE and Bloomberg yield curves. Just look at the number of sale/leaseback bond transactions done in any trading day compared to a "market" transaction.

Let me know what you think of this.

Regards
emlyn ngwiri
#43 Posted : Wednesday, January 11, 2012 7:58:05 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/12/2010
Posts: 129
Location: nairobi
Scooby wrote:
emlyn ngwiri wrote:
what i mean is arbitrage is sustained only for a short period before the forces of demand and supply regularise the situation.

Assume that a stock is trading in two markets simultaneously Kenya and Uganda. Suppose the stock is trading at kes 100 in the Ugandan market and kesh 98/- in Kenya. We simply buy a share for kesh 98 in Kenya and immediately sell it for kesh 100 in Uganda. We make an easy kes 2 at no risk and we did not have to put up any funds of our own. The sale of the stock at kesh 100 was more than adequate to finance the purchase of the stock at kesh 98.

hope im not too off

rgds


Emlyn,

Do you think that the Kshs. 2 difference could also be attributed to the relative illiquidity of the Ugandan market compared to Kenya?

I also think that the same illiquidity in the NSE bond market is contributing to the 300 bps difference between the NSE and Bloomberg yield curves. Just look at the number of sale/leaseback bond transactions done in any trading day compared to a "market" transaction.

Let me know what you think of this.

Regards




@scooby

Many market participants (investors, brokers etc) would do this, which would create downward pressure on the price of the stock in Uganda where it trades for kesh100 and upward pressure on the price of the stock in Kenya, where it trades for kesh 98. Eventually the two prices must come together so that there is but a single price for the stock. Recall the law of one price?

Due to information assymetry in uganda, amongst other reasons such as slow trading process, political interference etc illiquidity is bound to be charachteristic of that market.

The Nse is not as developed as that in sa of the UK but iliquidity in the bond market stems from the CMA and CBK probably for monetary policy conditions?



Scubidu
#44 Posted : Wednesday, January 11, 2012 1:26:54 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
GGK wrote:
Ceinz wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
KiFagio wrote:
GGK wrote:
This is one of those threads that I can't contribute. But it is enlightening all the same.

@GGK U R better off! Its all Martian to me. Pls tell me in simple language, what this lingo/jargon means. And how come only 3 wazuans R contributing? Where R the rest? QW??

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Kumbe siko peke yangu. This sounds like language ya watu wa CFA


Separating the mboys from river-road speculators.d'oh!


Someone is doing an MBA research here. Wazua on another level. Sisi tumezoea hesabu ya mashinani


@all. pole. didn't see this. Why not ask guys what they mean?
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scubidu
#45 Posted : Wednesday, January 11, 2012 1:47:55 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
@emlyn. the arbitrage is not short lived because of the illiquidity and not everyone is equal on the information curve. your scenario doesn't really play out becoz hardly any1 know the bid/ask spreads. The illiquidity in the bond mart is caused by CBK actions. is it easier to track risk if CBK actions determine the direction of ur bond portfolio?

@scooby. Pinebridge haven't included the recent IPOs in their index. I believe the sale/lease backs should not be traded on the NSE (or recorded seperately on the trading platform) or at least a separate OTC repo market should be created.

the question is where's market and how do you enhance price discovery in the Kenyan bond mart? That's why some bankers are advocating for an OTC bond mart becoz they believe using platforms like reuters and bloomberg will enhance price discovery.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
emlyn ngwiri
#46 Posted : Wednesday, January 11, 2012 6:44:09 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/12/2010
Posts: 129
Location: nairobi
@scubidu

my take is that tracking error should be compared to a given index.
If the actions of the CBK have a direct and immediate impact on the portfolio composition of a given bond index, then tracking error would be minimized as evaluated from the bond market line.(clinically simmilar to the CML) X axis being RETURN and Y axis being DURATION.

mzeekijana
#47 Posted : Wednesday, January 11, 2012 7:13:25 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/12/2010
Posts: 111
Location: MOMBASA
It sounds like we are in an industry that we know not.Hii mambo yooootee inayo-ongewa hapa sijaelewa hata nusu percent. One thing I know is, with all this knowledge, the brokers and akina Funds Managers also get burned tena worse than akina sisi. when we get burned no body is spared even the learned are fried...then what is the fun of lerning all these jergons and charts?? Sometimes i think this is just a trial an error industry and a lucky share choice at the right time accept those with 25 years investment duration/plan. Again it's better when u r knowlegeable than when you incvest like me...follow akina BIGCHAIR and the rest blindly.
Scubidu
#48 Posted : Sunday, January 15, 2012 5:50:54 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
emlyn ngwiri wrote:
@scubidu

my take is that tracking error should be compared to a given index.
If the actions of the CBK have a direct and immediate impact on the portfolio composition of a given bond index, then tracking error would be minimized as evaluated from the bond market line.(clinically simmilar to the CML) X axis being RETURN and Y axis being DURATION.



You've lost me mate. That sounds like a complex curve thing (the bond market line thingy u mentioned). There's no working bond index in Kenya (even AIG) hasn't been updated. So my question was what's the benchmark? My suggestion/question for @scooby was whether tracking clean prices can constitute an index of sorts.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scubidu
#49 Posted : Sunday, January 15, 2012 5:55:18 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
mzeekijana wrote:
It sounds like we are in an industry that we know not.Hii mambo yooootee inayo-ongewa hapa sijaelewa hata nusu percent. One thing I know is, with all this knowledge, the brokers and akina Funds Managers also get burned tena worse than akina sisi. when we get burned no body is spared even the learned are fried...then what is the fun of lerning all these jergons and charts?? Sometimes i think this is just a trial an error industry and a lucky share choice at the right time accept those with 25 years investment duration/plan. Again it's better when u r knowlegeable than when you incvest like me...follow akina BIGCHAIR and the rest blindly.


@mzeekijana. Don't follow anyone. Take advice from everyone, but make your decision based on what you uncover. Warren buffet isn't interested in economics but makes decisions based on what he understands (but you have to decide what level of knowledge you require to make a decision... the rest is trial and error).
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Ceinz
#50 Posted : Sunday, January 15, 2012 7:21:39 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 5/7/2009
Posts: 1,032
Location: Sea of Transquility
Scubidu wrote:
mzeekijana wrote:
It sounds like we are in an industry that we know not.Hii mambo yooootee inayo-ongewa hapa sijaelewa hata nusu percent. One thing I know is, with all this knowledge, the brokers and akina Funds Managers also get burned tena worse than akina sisi. when we get burned no body is spared even the learned are fried...then what is the fun of lerning all these jergons and charts?? Sometimes i think this is just a trial an error industry and a lucky share choice at the right time accept those with 25 years investment duration/plan. Again it's better when u r knowlegeable than when you incvest like me...follow akina BIGCHAIR and the rest blindly.


@mzeekijana. Don't follow anyone. Take advice from everyone, but make your decision based on what you uncover. Warren buffet isn't interested in economics but makes decisions based on what he understands (but you have to decide what level of knowledge you require to make a decision... the rest is trial and error).


Well put.d'oh!
“small step for man”
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