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MPC in Kenya HIKES CBK Rate BY 400BP to 11%
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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KulaRaha wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:I think Prof. Ndung'u should rely on his legal security of tenure & go ahead with direct selling to oil importers and see how that pans out. Screw politicizing Kenyan livelihoods!! Combo it with that IMF BoP support for extra ammo incase the banksters try to pull a fast one. IMF support is $500m. Monthly shortfall is $600m.. How will it help? FYI it is directed to oil-importers only. So sell USDs to them at a discount and watch whether it'll ease energy & fuel inflation. What's our monthly oil bill?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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Guys-lets not mislead. Ksh doesn't have a USD peg. What does happen is that most of our trade (imports/exports) are in USD, 50% of our remittances are in USD. A peg is what HKD, SGD among others have. 2ndly, there is actually some correlation but weak between USD/GBP movement and GBP/KSH vs USD/KSH-please just check the last 2 weeks when GBP/KSh has after months of lagging has gone from 151 to 167. This is despite the UK announcing a QE which should have led to weakening GBP and we announcing 400bps rise in interest rates. Obi-I thought ZAR(Rand) was Ksh11 at the beginning of the yr and is now Ksh13? I think CBK has done its bit. Uhuru needs to step up and offer the other side of the equation... Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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Mainat wrote:Guys-lets not mislead.
Ksh doesn't have a USD peg. What does happen is that most of our trade (imports/exports) are in USD, 50% of our remittances are in USD. A peg is what HKD, SGD among others have.
2ndly, there is actually some correlation but weak between USD/GBP movement and GBP/KSH vs USD/KSH-please just check the last 2 weeks when GBP/KSh has after months of lagging has gone from 151 to 167. This is despite the UK announcing a QE which should have led to weakening GBP and we announcing 400bps rise in interest rates.
Obi-I thought ZAR(Rand) was Ksh11 at the beginning of the yr and is now Ksh13?
I think CBK has done its bit. Uhuru needs to step up and offer the other side of the equation... On the Rand part I remember the last time it was at this levels against the Shilling was during PEV... Uhuru needs to put a cap on debt to gdp. Stop expansionary budgets just to please voters. Give incetives to manufacturers and tea farmers to drive exports. Introduce an importation levy on all luxury goods.
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Rank: User Joined: 8/29/2011 Posts: 1,045 Location: Mtaani
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the deal wrote:Mainat wrote:Guys-lets not mislead.
Ksh doesn't have a USD peg. What does happen is that most of our trade (imports/exports) are in USD, 50% of our remittances are in USD. A peg is what HKD, SGD among others have.
2ndly, there is actually some correlation but weak between USD/GBP movement and GBP/KSH vs USD/KSH-please just check the last 2 weeks when GBP/KSh has after months of lagging has gone from 151 to 167. This is despite the UK announcing a QE which should have led to weakening GBP and we announcing 400bps rise in interest rates.
Obi-I thought ZAR(Rand) was Ksh11 at the beginning of the yr and is now Ksh13?
I think CBK has done its bit. Uhuru needs to step up and offer the other side of the equation... On the Rand part I remember the last time it was at this levels against the Shilling was during PEV... Uhuru needs to put a cap on debt to gdp. Stop expansionary budgets just to please voters. Give incetives to manufacturers and tea farmers to drive exports. Introduce an importation levy on all luxury goods. @the deal For President !!!! lol
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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QW25081985 wrote:the deal wrote:Mainat wrote:Guys-lets not mislead.
Ksh doesn't have a USD peg. What does happen is that most of our trade (imports/exports) are in USD, 50% of our remittances are in USD. A peg is what HKD, SGD among others have.
2ndly, there is actually some correlation but weak between USD/GBP movement and GBP/KSH vs USD/KSH-please just check the last 2 weeks when GBP/KSh has after months of lagging has gone from 151 to 167. This is despite the UK announcing a QE which should have led to weakening GBP and we announcing 400bps rise in interest rates.
Obi-I thought ZAR(Rand) was Ksh11 at the beginning of the yr and is now Ksh13?
I think CBK has done its bit. Uhuru needs to step up and offer the other side of the equation... On the Rand part I remember the last time it was at this levels against the Shilling was during PEV... Uhuru needs to put a cap on debt to gdp. Stop expansionary budgets just to please voters. Give incetives to manufacturers and tea farmers to drive exports. Introduce an importation levy on all luxury goods. @the deal For President !!!! lol  Occupy Nairobi on the 15th!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/26/2007 Posts: 6,514
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:KulaRaha wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:I think Prof. Ndung'u should rely on his legal security of tenure & go ahead with direct selling to oil importers and see how that pans out. Screw politicizing Kenyan livelihoods!! Combo it with that IMF BoP support for extra ammo incase the banksters try to pull a fast one. IMF support is $500m. Monthly shortfall is $600m.. How will it help? FYI it is directed to oil-importers only. So sell USDs to them at a discount and watch whether it'll ease energy & fuel inflation. What's our monthly oil bill? Monthly oil bill for Kenya is about 20B. CBK reserves around 390B. If IMF chips in, add 50B more. So they can pay oil bill for Kenya between them for 22 months and wipe out reserves. Good idea? Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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KulaRaha wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:KulaRaha wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:I think Prof. Ndung'u should rely on his legal security of tenure & go ahead with direct selling to oil importers and see how that pans out. Screw politicizing Kenyan livelihoods!! Combo it with that IMF BoP support for extra ammo incase the banksters try to pull a fast one. IMF support is $500m. Monthly shortfall is $600m.. How will it help? FYI it is directed to oil-importers only. So sell USDs to them at a discount and watch whether it'll ease energy & fuel inflation. What's our monthly oil bill? Monthly oil bill for Kenya is about 20B. CBK reserves around 390B. If IMF chips in, add 50B more. So they can pay oil bill for Kenya between them for 22 months and wipe out reserves. Good idea? So they said they would equally secure USD supply from large exporters kina KTDA etc
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/26/2007 Posts: 6,514
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:KulaRaha wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:KulaRaha wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:I think Prof. Ndung'u should rely on his legal security of tenure & go ahead with direct selling to oil importers and see how that pans out. Screw politicizing Kenyan livelihoods!! Combo it with that IMF BoP support for extra ammo incase the banksters try to pull a fast one. IMF support is $500m. Monthly shortfall is $600m.. How will it help? FYI it is directed to oil-importers only. So sell USDs to them at a discount and watch whether it'll ease energy & fuel inflation. What's our monthly oil bill? Monthly oil bill for Kenya is about 20B. CBK reserves around 390B. If IMF chips in, add 50B more. So they can pay oil bill for Kenya between them for 22 months and wipe out reserves. Good idea? So they said they would equally secure USD supply from large exporters kina KTDA etc Total dollar inflows into Kenya per month are 43B. If they capture full dollar inflows, pay oil bill 20B and keep balance 23B in reserves, what do you think will happen to the market? Suddenly no dollars for the other importers.... Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/29/2010 Posts: 679 Location: nairobi
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they have rescinded this bright idea, admin issues kibao, cbk think tank deserves an award..they did not think this idea through, let alone the net impact on reserves
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/26/2007 Posts: 6,514
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Today they're in the market mopping up shillings, while interbank is at 13%+ already. Does anyone think in CBK? Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/29/2010 Posts: 679 Location: nairobi
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[quote=the deal]SA to use reserves to ease market stress http://mobile.bloomberg....ory=%2Fnews%2Fafrica%2F[/quote] always an option i say, always an option!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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KulaRaha wrote:Today they're in the market mopping up shillings, while interbank is at 13%+ already.
Does anyone think in CBK? Yes. Sell your forex.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/19/2008 Posts: 4,268
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KulaRaha wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:KulaRaha wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:KulaRaha wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:I think Prof. Ndung'u should rely on his legal security of tenure & go ahead with direct selling to oil importers and see how that pans out. Screw politicizing Kenyan livelihoods!! Combo it with that IMF BoP support for extra ammo incase the banksters try to pull a fast one. IMF support is $500m. Monthly shortfall is $600m.. How will it help? FYI it is directed to oil-importers only. So sell USDs to them at a discount and watch whether it'll ease energy & fuel inflation. What's our monthly oil bill? Monthly oil bill for Kenya is about 20B. CBK reserves around 390B. If IMF chips in, add 50B more. So they can pay oil bill for Kenya between them for 22 months and wipe out reserves. Good idea? So they said they would equally secure USD supply from large exporters kina KTDA etc Total dollar inflows into Kenya per month are 43B. If they capture full dollar inflows, pay oil bill 20B and keep balance 23B in reserves, what do you think will happen to the market? Suddenly no dollars for the other importers.... You are clearly in banking... treasury that is.... so, will the banks sit back and wait for the CBK to empty their reserves before they can sell theirs? While they have board meetings to report to? The banks are already making obscene profits with the forex misbehaving, so cutting it down to even 100 or 95, they'd still be making some money... Disclaimer: am still torn between complaining or urging the CBK not to do anything until it reaches 200...(tongue in the cheek)
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/13/2009 Posts: 1,950 Location: in kenya
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What I dont get is, why increase CBR when inflation is not being caused by too much liquidity but imported inflation? The Ksh speculative attack is a symptom of weak economic fundamentals and I think the CBR hike is just exacerbating the problem. CBK is powerless unless a concerted effort to cut the current and fiscal deficit is addressed the speculators will continue hitting the Ksh hard. '......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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I'm thinking since the Hague didn't generate much a buzz for Kenyans...KES to the rescue with bulk fodder Najivunia kuwa Mkenya!
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/29/2010 Posts: 679 Location: nairobi
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Wendz wrote:KulaRaha wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:KulaRaha wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:KulaRaha wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:I think Prof. Ndung'u should rely on his legal security of tenure & go ahead with direct selling to oil importers and see how that pans out. Screw politicizing Kenyan livelihoods!! Combo it with that IMF BoP support for extra ammo incase the banksters try to pull a fast one. IMF support is $500m. Monthly shortfall is $600m.. How will it help? FYI it is directed to oil-importers only. So sell USDs to them at a discount and watch whether it'll ease energy & fuel inflation. What's our monthly oil bill? Monthly oil bill for Kenya is about 20B. CBK reserves around 390B. If IMF chips in, add 50B more. So they can pay oil bill for Kenya between them for 22 months and wipe out reserves. Good idea? So they said they would equally secure USD supply from large exporters kina KTDA etc Total dollar inflows into Kenya per month are 43B. If they capture full dollar inflows, pay oil bill 20B and keep balance 23B in reserves, what do you think will happen to the market? Suddenly no dollars for the other importers.... You are clearly in banking... treasury that is.... so, will the banks sit back and wait for the CBK to empty their reserves before they can sell theirs? While they have board meetings to report to? The banks are already making obscene profits with the forex misbehaving, so cutting it down to even 100 or 95, they'd still be making some money... Disclaimer: am still torn between complaining or urging the CBK not to do anything until it reaches 200...(tongue in the cheek) the overnite rate will hit 17! by weeks end expect bank to hike lendin rates by 200-400bpts...when did we start following what uganda does?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/26/2007 Posts: 6,514
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:KulaRaha wrote:Today they're in the market mopping up shillings, while interbank is at 13%+ already.
Does anyone think in CBK? Yes. Sell your forex. Sell my forex and do what with shillings? Why dont CBK sell those reserves they're hoarding? Isn't this what they're for? Ama they need them to bankroll some politicians next year? Now we're getting to the gist of things! Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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The money markets are very dry..liquidity crunch...look at today's 20% subscription of T-bills..they also got 17% through today's repo's...what next printing money? OccupyNairobi should be changed to occupy CBK...
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MPC in Kenya HIKES CBK Rate BY 400BP to 11%
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