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Ksh at its weakest since it floated in 1994
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Mainat
#81 Posted : Thursday, August 18, 2011 1:10:46 PM
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Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
I understand some banks now operating liquidity ratios below statutory limits
Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Cde Monomotapa
#82 Posted : Thursday, August 18, 2011 1:19:14 PM
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Joined: 1/13/2011
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Sector consolidation!!
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Cde Monomotapa
#83 Posted : Thursday, August 18, 2011 1:21:03 PM
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Sector consolidation!!

About time we played "big bank takes little bank"
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the deal
#84 Posted : Thursday, August 18, 2011 1:27:40 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Everything i stated in this article has punned out, high interest rates..public dates...whats remaining is RECESSION hahaha! http://www.contrarianinv...ml?year=2011&month=7
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Mainat
#85 Posted : Thursday, August 18, 2011 1:31:59 PM
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Lending rates will definitely go up because banks can't sell t-bills currently without incurring P&L losses.
Sehemu ndio nyumba
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the deal
#86 Posted : Thursday, August 18, 2011 1:43:50 PM
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Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Last time the U.S faced a liquidity crunch...what happened? muhahahahaha!
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Cde Monomotapa
#87 Posted : Thursday, August 18, 2011 1:47:53 PM
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The banks have to be squeezed hard enough to relinquish their speculative FX positions. smile
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Cde Monomotapa
#88 Posted : Thursday, August 18, 2011 2:00:45 PM
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Joined: 1/13/2011
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Trust banks to fight back. CBK auctions undersubscribed. Let's see who taps out 1st. Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
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kizee1
#89 Posted : Thursday, August 18, 2011 4:06:33 PM
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:
The banks have to be squeezed hard enough to relinquish their speculative FX positions. smile



r u sure? why is kes still weak? if ur theory is rite kes wud be in the 80s
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the deal
#90 Posted : Thursday, August 18, 2011 5:14:35 PM
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Joined: 9/25/2009
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USD vs KES now at 93...after trading the whole day at 92, track it LIVE here http://contrarianinvestingkenya.info
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the deal
#91 Posted : Thursday, August 18, 2011 5:30:50 PM
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Joined: 9/25/2009
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Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Not a bad strategy from the Gov, if those punitive lending rates are temporary...it can work but he left it too late...cos now there are global forces against him...risk aversion is prevalent esp against emerging market assets...
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Cde Monomotapa
#92 Posted : Thursday, August 18, 2011 6:32:25 PM
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Joined: 1/13/2011
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kizee1 wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
The banks have to be squeezed hard enough to relinquish their speculative FX positions. smile



r u sure? why is kes still weak? if ur theory is rite kes wud be in the 80s

Simply because it is a process & not an event. Ask @deal, we have had such a chat before about Processes Vs. Events.
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hisah
#93 Posted : Thursday, August 18, 2011 7:28:54 PM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Best KES summary here... http://www.youtube.com/w...sWY&feature=related

@Deal - I'm seeing the likelihood of that Asian 1997 scenario showing up as early as Q1 2012 here in KE. This will not be a nice thing to watch...

I'll stick to T-Bills esp short term 91 & 182 days as the strategy is working fine at the moment since April. I expect the short term interest rates to spike. Gubberment debt burden is looking very crappy and the banks know this...

Quite interesting this yield curve, courtesy CBK.




http://www.centralbank.g...bills/manualresults.aspx
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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the deal
#94 Posted : Friday, August 19, 2011 11:22:55 AM
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Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
CBK has stopped posting Discount window rate on their website, but I hear its at 20% today and the Shilling is at 93.20 track it LIVE here http://contrarianinvestingkenya.info
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kizee1
#95 Posted : Friday, August 19, 2011 11:44:12 AM
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Joined: 9/29/2010
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Location: nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
kizee1 wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
The banks have to be squeezed hard enough to relinquish their speculative FX positions. smile



r u sure? why is kes still weak? if ur theory is rite kes wud be in the 80s

Simply because it is a process & not an event. Ask @deal, we have had such a chat before about Processes Vs. Events.


im asking u...is the rate scenario the only cause of the weakness? how about flow dynamics?
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tonicasert
#96 Posted : Friday, August 19, 2011 11:44:12 AM
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Joined: 3/10/2008
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Location: Abu Dhabi
@hisah

"@Deal - I'm seeing the likelihood of that Asian 1997 scenario showing up as early as Q1 2012 here in KE. This will not be a nice thing to watch... "

I think there situation is bit different from the Asian crisis; There they had raised rates to attract investments, while keeping their currencies pegged/controlled, resulting in an unsustainable asset bubble that burst when the govt/Central Banks bulked to the pressure.

Our CBK is using interest rates to cause pain to speculators, but at the end of the day Kenyans are the ones hurting. If they suspect speculation, they should take more affirmitive and specific action on the players.

But if the losses are occurring due to capital flight, or lesser foreign investors ahead of the elections, then we have to re-adjust and get used to a new price range of USDKES.
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Cde Monomotapa
#97 Posted : Friday, August 19, 2011 12:01:18 PM
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Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
U cried for CBK to hikes and U got it. What's the problem now? Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly the gamblers have to be shaken out HARD. I accepted the interim strain ages ago. I suggest u do so too.
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SAC Cohen
#98 Posted : Friday, August 19, 2011 12:31:59 PM
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Joined: 1/3/2011
Posts: 129
Location: Nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
U cried for CBK to hikes and U got it. What's the problem now? Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly the gamblers have to be shaken out HARD. I accepted the interim strain ages ago. I suggest u do so too.


Dude,
plse answer kizee's q...
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Cde Monomotapa
#99 Posted : Friday, August 19, 2011 1:43:25 PM
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Joined: 1/13/2011
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I've confined my contributions to the cause and effects of the policy statement. Other issues of capital flow i have as little info as u do.
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the deal
#100 Posted : Friday, August 19, 2011 4:30:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
[quote=hisah]Best KES summary here... http://www.youtube.com/w...sWY&feature=related

@Deal - I'm seeing the likelihood of that Asian 1997 scenario showing up as early as Q1 2012 here in KE. This will not be a nice thing to watch...

I'll stick to T-Bills esp short term 91 & 182 days as the strategy is working fine at the moment since April. I expect the short term interest rates to spike. Gubberment debt burden is looking very crappy and the banks know this...

Quite interesting this yield curve, courtesy CBK.




http://www.centralbank.g...ills/manualresults.aspx[/quote]
@Hisah that yield curve will soon be inverted..i'm doing a piece on it...hopefully i will publish tomorrowsmile smile
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