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Uganda Shilling - Death Wish
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/1/2009 Posts: 2,436
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VituVingiSana wrote:This piece of crap is trading at 2,775 per US$ & seems to be hurtling towards 2,800!!! RIP UShs/ TZS Aand KShs - all breaching psychological limits/ lows never seen before. 
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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Intelligentsia wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:This piece of crap is trading at 2,775 per US$ & seems to be hurtling towards 2,800!!! RIP UShs/ TZS Aand KShs - all breaching psychological limits/ lows never seen before. Pole my friend, but a good time for foreigners like me to gradually position in USE (Uganda Stock Exchange). I wired USD 1530 to African Alliance Uganda and it bollooned to 4.1 Million UGX, a millionaire indeed. ! to buy some shares. Stupid decision on the short term but excellent on the long term (10 years upwards) The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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Beyond UGX almost becoming useless as per @VVS real uganda stocks (not cross listed ones) have not yet dropped like NSE. Might be USE is waiting for elder brother NSE to fall to the bottomless bottom before it drops sharply. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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USD/UGX in uncharted waters with no lighthouse in sight. New all time low. Any target is possible. 3000 looks like the momentum aim with current chart positioning. Excessively sold but Mr Market is always irrational... http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-ugx$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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At this rate, it seems tis only petro-dollars that'll save this one.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,099 Location: Nairobi
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Useless chaps trying to halt credit to the private sector! http://www.theeastafrica...8/-/6rlbmh/-/index.html
The real cause is museveni's purchase of $750mn of war planes/jets which started the run on the UGX. idiots. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,099 Location: Nairobi
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If you are going into Uganda today, you have a HUGE advantage but for someone like me who went in as a US$ investor it is absolute bullshit! I use the US$ as the 'international' currency... Since Dec 2010, when Ugandans re-elected that thieving fool... the UGX has dropped from 2000 to 2820 today! It is expected to touch 3,000. Even if I was long-term, I would need a massive 50% appreciation of the UGX just to break-even! That's assuming NO more losses to UGX 4,000/-. BTW, the US$ is weak. If you compare UGX vs JPY/CHF/A$ then it is even worse! Much worse! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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VituVingiSana wrote:If you are going into Uganda today, you have a HUGE advantage but for someone like me who went in as a US$ investor it is absolute bullshit!
I use the US$ as the 'international' currency...
Since Dec 2010, when Ugandans re-elected that thieving fool... the UGX has dropped from 2000 to 2820 today! It is expected to touch 3,000.
Even if I was long-term, I would need a massive 50% appreciation of the UGX just to break-even! That's assuming NO more losses to UGX 4,000/-. BTW, the US$ is weak. If you compare UGX vs JPY/CHF/A$ then it is even worse! Much worse! Boss, pole. I've checked the swissie & yen vs ugx charts & this is a carnage!?
So some war machines purchase order have dried up the dollar reserves... Since their CB looks equally 'competent' like ours, 4000 wont be a shocker...
Anyone with the tzs story since it has also been hammered for months?$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@Deal - If these EA currencies continue this tailspin slide, the Asian crisis snapshot that I dread will come home to roost. The current EA gubberments would all vanish by the time that econ crisis is sorted. I hope EA doesn't get to that stage, but their central planners are driving the bus towards the cliff!? @kizee1 - do you know the banks that have skeletons in their books i.e. in EA? It would be wise for people to know ili wajipange when the bank runs start. Now if we had short selling across the EA markets, I'd be a shark on those bank stocks. Been my tune since Jan and unlikely to change anytime soon. It wont matter even if 100% profits are posted?! $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,099 Location: Nairobi
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It gets worse! http://www.theeastafrica.../-/4c3adnz/-/index.html
UGX has reached 2,830/$ (& this with a weakening US$)... Bank lending rates 21% or higher meaning more folks will default especially as cost of living jumps! With the BoU paying higher rates, who wants to lend to the ordinary Ugandan? Not sure what the end-game is but very worrying for me as an 'existing' foreign/Kenyan investor!!! Even worse in US$. For my investment to 'break-even' I need a 45% rise in profits which excludes any gains or opportunity cost I missed out on! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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@ VVS...please do fiind solace?? Kampala — Uganda will save up to Shs1.7 trillion per annum on oil imports when the country starts its oil production (2012), according to a top official at Bank of Uganda. "Statistics show that with the rapid development of this sector, the country is bound to save up to about Shs1.7 trillion per year ($600 million) which is currently being spent on oil importation. http://allafrica.com/stories/201108190344.html
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@Cde - would buy that story with lending rates @21% together with inflation rates @21.4%...? The EA central planners are jokers & I dont need to go into a name calling spree for its not worth my time... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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hisah wrote:@Cde - would buy that story with lending rates @21% together with inflation rates @21.4%...?
The EA central planners are jokers & I dont need to go into a name calling spree for its not worth my time... Be easy comrade. That's the long picture  the oil is yet to gush out but i'm patiently waited.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:hisah wrote:@Cde - would buy that story with lending rates @21% together with inflation rates @21.4%...?
The EA central planners are jokers & I dont need to go into a name calling spree for its not worth my time... Be easy comrade. That's the long picture the oil is yet to gush out but i'm patiently waited. Leave it to this turnaround engineer ;-)
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:hisah wrote:@Cde - would buy that story with lending rates @21% together with inflation rates @21.4%...?
The EA central planners are jokers & I dont need to go into a name calling spree for its not worth my time... Be easy comrade. That's the long picture the oil is yet to gush out but i'm patiently waited. Leave it to this turnaround engineer ;-) I hope it'll not be the likes of Bernanke & co turnaround engineering gimmicks  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Hehe...this old farmer's plan is simple. Maintain my position in Uganda's largest bank, SBU. There is more than meets the eye as follows; CNOOC is interested in UG's oil and by extension, Standard Bank ZA has substantial Sino shareholding so my thinking is Sino bank for Sino oil. Furthermore, SBU being a subsidiary it will have no "ambitious" regional expansion plans so that makes it a potential largesse cash-cow in terms of dividend pay outs coupled with a potentially stronger UGX c/o oil exports...I expect to be a happy camper
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Do research on Angolan banks. As much the country has the Dutch disease and the population is generally poor in abundance... The banks are GIANT off corporate accounts. Retail banking is almost non-existant in Angola. That's the worst case scenario as I expect UG to spend its oil monies better.
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