@ nostoppingthis,
What the good Prof is saying maybe true but my point is that it gets tiring to read him bashing one side of the political divide if you may.
The thing is Kenyans are by far very tribal (more than anyone is willing to admit) and will vote according to the laid down tribal patterns.
Case in point, when ODM run for elections in 2007 it comprised of the bigwigs of the most populated communities (read tribe). Raila-Luo vote, Ruto-Kalenjin, Balala - Coastal/Muslim, Mudavadi - Luhya Ngilu - Kamba Vote etc.
Now with this in mind, all these tribes had "their" man/woman ascending to power. The Kikuyu/Gema (or whatever you want to call it) on the other hand wasn't really represented in ODM hence they went back to MK. The kamba vote went to K.Musyoka.
With the above, it is clear for anyone with eyes open to see that WE Kenyans are tribal.
Now with regard to your question, there is no problem with Prof analyzing if the two communities involved in the article would vote the "other" way.
My point is Prof should also analyze the other side of the divide to see if the same scenario plays out... ie Raila giving way to Balala/Mudavadi/Ngilu etc.
Common sense is the most evenly distributed quantity in the world. Everyone thinks he has enough.