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The long bear
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guru267
#41 Posted : Sunday, June 19, 2011 7:01:27 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:

Time to accumulate cheap bluechips especially industrials and banks for long term investors all the way to 2012. Then @guru will get her 5 year (15yr is too ambitious) bull run.


@hisah after 2012 kenya will enter into a super cycle that can lasy even longer than 15 years which has not been uncommon of other countries developing in the past albeit with minor corrections along the way
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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craig
#42 Posted : Sunday, June 19, 2011 7:16:48 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 5/28/2011
Posts: 27
its a bear alright, and i actually hope it holds for a little longer...
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hisah
#43 Posted : Sunday, June 19, 2011 8:58:29 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Quote:
Last month’s sales by foreign investors edged close to sales made in June 2008 at the onset of the global financial crisis, when foreigners made sales worth Sh6.72 billion against purchases of Sh2.69 billion.

Ksh depreciated by an average of 10, 14 and 17% against the dollar, sterling pound and euro since the beginning of the year.


Inflation at double digit per cent too...

http://www.businessdaily.../-/evv9k0z/-/index.html

@guru - a 15yr rally in Africa with the 'stable' politiking...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Sunday, June 19, 2011 9:18 PM | Reason: Not specified
the deal
#44 Posted : Sunday, June 19, 2011 9:57:54 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@Hisah you are right...Banking executives must be sweating like hell...the weak Sh and double digit inflation is messing them up bad..interest rates will keep rising...i see a huge spike in NPL's...banks exposed to the low segment of the market and those not into regions will come off worse...the economy wont grow not a recession Mr Hisah
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guru267
#45 Posted : Sunday, June 19, 2011 10:08:35 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
@Hisah you are right...Banking executives must be sweating like hell...the weak Sh and double digit inflation is messing them up bad..interest rates will keep rising...i see a huge spike in NPL's...banks exposed to the low segment of the market and those not into regions will come off worse...the economy wont grow not a recession Mr Hisah


@the deal The recession will come from the West not internally.. Cant you already feel the breeze??
It will be a classic stagflation.. Soaring commodities and super unemployment will be charecteristics
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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the deal
#46 Posted : Sunday, June 19, 2011 10:51:41 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@Guru this Hisah guy is a genious..the devaluation of the Shilling can force East Africa into a recession...i love history Asian financial crisis of 97 were precipitated by weak currencies..uhmm Kenya needs guys like him at CBK...@Hisah do you have a linkedin profile?
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guru267
#47 Posted : Sunday, June 19, 2011 11:20:39 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
@Guru this Hisah guy is a genious..the devaluation of the Shilling can force East Africa into a recession...i love history Asian financial crisis of 97 were precipitated by weak currencies..uhmm Kenya needs guys like him at CBK...@Hisah do you have a linkedin profile?


@the deal enough with the sarcasm.. The threat is real..

A weakening currency only benefits net exporter countries but countries like kenya that are huge net importers will absolutely hammered if the situation does not change soon..
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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slykat
#48 Posted : Sunday, June 19, 2011 11:50:48 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 359
I feel some of you guys are contradicting yourselves; we all agree that the economic problems u aptly capture "are deep" and double digit, and it's not a blip, and no workable solution is on the table yet. With the same mouth, we talk of a recovery in 2012. Yes months!

How so fast when there is no anti-dote on the table? Consider that we haven't even reached the bottom of the food shortage yet, let alone the currency and inflation issue. Plus that inflation increases significantly every election year thanks to increased money in circulation. 2012 may be worse or sustained, especially if the short rains fail too. Is months too optimistic or am I too pessimistic?
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, June 20, 2011 12:18 AM | Reason: Not specified
guru267
#49 Posted : Monday, June 20, 2011 12:44:47 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
slykat wrote:
I feel some of you guys are contradicting yourselves; we all agree that the economic problems u aptly capture "are deep" and double digit, and it's not a blip, and no workable solution is on the table yet. With the same mouth, we talk of a recovery in 2012. Yes months!

How so fast when there is no anti-dote on the table? Consider that we haven't even reached the bottom of the food shortage yet, let alone the currency and inflation issue. Plus that inflation increases significantly every election year thanks to increased money in circulation. 2012 may be worse or sustained, especially if the short rains fail too. Is months too optimistic or am I too pessimistic?


@skylat the european & US crisis might cause our stock market to fall but not the economies.
I think the african economies will be resilient to crises and hence this will lead to a recovery in the stock markets when african growth becomes evident...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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guru267
#50 Posted : Monday, June 20, 2011 1:12:45 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
erifloss wrote:
The best bets as of now are:
1. Banks especially ones that deal with SMEs & Agriculturals & that saw a leap in their forex income in q1. Also ones whose recoveries ratio was or is up (Equity Bank).
2. TPS, due to weakening of the shilling & strengthening of the rand, Kenya is now deemed a cheaper tourist destination as compared to SA one of our strongest competitors.


Diamond trust is a bank that has been focusing on the SME sector more than any other bank and is backed by the IFC for growth and it is all currently paying off tremendously
TPS is definitely on the right path as you have already mentioned..

The funny thing is that JUBILEE HOLDINGS owns a substantial part and has a seat on the board of directors of both the above mentioned companies.
So why not buy jubilee to get exposure to both firms plus much more it has to offer??

Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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