30th July 2011 - Update
Williamson - Tea prices will remain strong 2Q 2011. Production will be lower than 2010 unless it rains heavily. Current production is behind 2010.
Price on 3 Jan 2011 =
Target = 300/-
[I remain very far off in share price (205/-) even though the Tea Prices have held up. Production has suffered due to lack of rains in the Jan-Jun quarters. I doubt it will touch 300/- this year. I am not worried about profits with a weak KES + high tea prices. If had 'control' I would sub-divide the farms & sell them off!]
KenolKobil - The best OMC in Kenya. Also regional expansion. For the patient. I still think 12/- is a huge bargain.
Price on 3 Jan 2011 =
Target = 13/- [but not for sale until Dec 2013 at 20/-]
[Since I made my pick, I have received KES 0.52 & expect another KES 0.57 but the big payday is coming. 2H2011 is expected to be better than 2H2010]
Kenya Airways - Great African & Asian opportunities as India+China trade with Africa increases + increased intra-Africa travel.
Price on 3 Jan 2011 =
Target = 60/-
[The price performance has disappointed. I like it but I doubt I will make it to 60/- any time soon. Is there hop? Yes. Not in 2012 but 2013 after new aircraft are deployed & elections are over. KQ plans new routes, 10 Embraers have been 'booked', the (potential) Rights Issue remains a damper]
KPLC - The failed rains has caused supply problems. Some rationing in July/Aug 2011. The price has fallen but I remain optimistic based on new sources of thermal/geothermal power to boost sales. Kenya's strong economic growth means continuous need for additional electricity. I believe the 1H 2010-11 results will be good but KPLC might 'under-report' to stave off criticism. The price review has been postponed but I think it will be phased in 'under the radar'.
Price on 3 Jan 2011 =
Target = 28/-
[Profits will be up but I think I was wrong on this one in 2011. Political pressures will dampen profits - already seen recently. Maybe 2013?]
Unga - Remains a 3-year play for me from mid-2010 not a 2011 performer. Maize imports during 3Q 2011 will help. Wheat is always imported so does not concern me as all millers are affected. If I owned 50% of Unga, I would sell the brand names, scrap/sell the machinery then use the cash to develop the land in Industrial Area.
Price on 3 Jan 2011 =
Mid-2013 Target = 20/- [+ dividends]
[Currently (10/-) but I have the time]
Overall: I increased my stake in KK. Cash is always an issue. I also bought some additional Williamson.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett