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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
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Metasploit
#4921 Posted : Wednesday, April 09, 2014 3:13:31 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
hisah wrote:
BAT sheds 9% as NSE20 continues to find 5000 a tough nut to crack. A few weeks ago BAT was melting up on fumes all the way to 630 and now facing strong rejection. EABL as expected was rejected before touching 280. This one if it loses the 220 support level, the slide will be cold. Simba and member have stalled. Last peg is mpesa bank which reports in May after which no financial news tail winds for NSE20... Sideways markets are tough for traders. Long term camp will soon start getting overcrowded.


EABL is a strange one.When it is almost sliding,bids build up to defend 260.My guess is a flat lining at 260-265 before an eventual breakdown below 250.Noted that bids,however huge,have always been swallowed by supply


“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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cnn
#4922 Posted : Wednesday, April 09, 2014 3:57:18 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,627
hisah wrote:
BAT sheds 9% as NSE20 continues to find 5000 a tough nut to crack. A few weeks ago BAT was melting up on fumes all the way to 630 and now facing strong rejection. EABL as expected was rejected before touching 280. This one if it loses the 220 support level, the slide will be cold. Simba and member have stalled. Last peg is mpesa bank which reports in May after which no financial news tail winds for NSE20... Sideways markets are tough for traders. Long term camp will soon start getting overcrowded.

@hisah..the BAT drop ex dividend was to be expected,something akin to what Bamburi is doing now.The melt up you mention was in the run up to book closure.
I agree most counters have stalled,direction still being sought.The first quarter report for banks,capital gains tax introduction or not,the Eurobond(is it ever happening)are all events which could direct more significant market movements.
The sideways market like you say is very hard to make money in,and worse is the lack of volumes when prices fall... when one thinks a good entry price has been attained.
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hisah
#4923 Posted : Thursday, April 10, 2014 3:45:52 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:


Silently floating up as sellers retreat from 12 - 12.50. The 3mth chart is forming an ascending triangle which means if the bulls pile in the pressure, 12.50 resistance will breakdown opening up 13 - 13.50 as the next targets.

VWAP closes @12.75 with a high of 13.

Breakout on the ascending triangle round 2 as the resistance @12.50 folds. Off to the races again just like @7.50 with thin supply... The Yu mobile deal fallout has been digested.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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murchr
#4924 Posted : Friday, April 11, 2014 2:16:15 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:


Silently floating up as sellers retreat from 12 - 12.50. The 3mth chart is forming an ascending triangle which means if the bulls pile in the pressure, 12.50 resistance will breakdown opening up 13 - 13.50 as the next targets.

VWAP closes @12.75 with a high of 13.

Breakout on the ascending triangle round 2 as the resistance @12.50 folds. Off to the races again just like @7.50 with thin supply... The Yu mobile deal fallout has been digested.


This is the 2nd time the LTP is 13:00 lets see how long it shall last
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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hisah
#4925 Posted : Friday, April 11, 2014 4:50:45 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
murchr wrote:
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:


Silently floating up as sellers retreat from 12 - 12.50. The 3mth chart is forming an ascending triangle which means if the bulls pile in the pressure, 12.50 resistance will breakdown opening up 13 - 13.50 as the next targets.

VWAP closes @12.75 with a high of 13.

Breakout on the ascending triangle round 2 as the resistance @12.50 folds. Off to the races again just like @7.50 with thin supply... The Yu mobile deal fallout has been digested.


This is the 2nd time the LTP is 13:00 lets see how long it shall last

The break has comes weeks before the results. It has legs until the day of the results where I expect some selling pressure. For now 13 - 13.50 or higher as long as 11-11.50 is not broken. If it clocks 15, the selling will be strong!

@philanga - did u decamp completely?
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#4926 Posted : Friday, April 11, 2014 7:45:00 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
hisah wrote:
murchr wrote:
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:


Silently floating up as sellers retreat from 12 - 12.50. The 3mth chart is forming an ascending triangle which means if the bulls pile in the pressure, 12.50 resistance will breakdown opening up 13 - 13.50 as the next targets.

VWAP closes @12.75 with a high of 13.

Breakout on the ascending triangle round 2 as the resistance @12.50 folds. Off to the races again just like @7.50 with thin supply... The Yu mobile deal fallout has been digested.


This is the 2nd time the LTP is 13:00 lets see how long it shall last

The break has comes weeks before the results. It has legs until the day of the results where I expect some selling pressure. For now 13 - 13.50 or higher as long as 11-11.50 is not broken. If it clocks 15, the selling will be strong!

@philanga - did u decamp completely?

Sold out at 12 and was waiting for a slight pull back to get back in and ride till accounts release mid next month. Seems the breakout cought me off-guardSadRe-invested in memba as I see potential with MVNO licence awarded through Finserve Africa,its subsidiary,and also to grab the 1.5 bob divsmile,KQ & Keno.
@SufficientlyP
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Ericsson
#4927 Posted : Friday, April 11, 2014 7:59:25 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
Price correction taking place in Athi River Mining.
Counter was trading at the highest PE in the market at around 33.
Price correction will continue till the counter trades at the ranges of ksh.50-60 per share
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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mlennyma
#4928 Posted : Friday, April 11, 2014 9:09:51 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
Another expensive counter was scangroup at 70's but has taken a good beating
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Aguytrying
#4929 Posted : Friday, April 11, 2014 9:29:44 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
mlennyma wrote:
Another expensive counter was scangroup at 70's but has taken a good beating


Scan could still be having a high P/E because of that massive dilution by cavendish
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Aguytrying
#4930 Posted : Friday, April 11, 2014 9:31:56 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Ericsson wrote:
Price correction taking place in Athi River Mining.
Counter was trading at the highest PE in the market at around 33.
Price correction will continue till the counter trades at the ranges of ksh.50-60 per share


you forgot something. "Says my crystal ball"
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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