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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
mnandii
#481 Posted : Saturday, June 13, 2015 7:51:58 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Companies which have been bailed out by the GoK before (Uchumi, Mumias, Kenya Airways) will find the going tough when the deflation catches on later this year to early 2016. Of course the GoK will try more bailouts but it will become increasingly difficult in an environment of declining tax revenue.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Cde Monomotapa
#482 Posted : Saturday, June 13, 2015 10:40:03 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
mnandii wrote:
Companies which have been bailed out by the GoK before (Uchumi, Mumias, Kenya Airways) will find the going tough when the deflation catches on later this year to early 2016. Of course the GoK will try more bailouts but it will become increasingly difficult in an environment of declining tax revenue.

Disinflation.
mnandii
#483 Posted : Wednesday, June 17, 2015 11:07:19 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Allow me to state categorically that Equity is now emitting danger signals!

Apart from the planned major growth out of Kenya and into Africa, various loan products without strong security, diversification, we now have this:

Quote:
Equity woos investors with instant payment for share sales

Equity Bank is set to introduce instant payment for share sales in an aggressive fight for a piece of the brokerage and custodial business.

The lender, through its subsidiary Equity Investment Bank, in the next few weeks plans to launch a service that will allow customers to be paid once a sale order goes through.

“You should be able to get your money on the same hour or day that you sell your shares,” said Equity Group Holdings chief executive James Mwangi in an interview.

Normally, customers are paid up to three days after the transaction although some stockbrokers are able to shorten this period for specific clients because at any given day they know how much working capital is available in their account.

Equity Investment Bank said it is introducing the service to add value for its customers.

The lender also hopes to use the securities as collateral for customers taking loans.

Mr Mwangi said the custodial business enables the bank to lend using stocks and bonds
, which are more liquid than other forms of securities like land, as collateral. “This will enhance our ability to lend,” he said.


Biz daily

Pray Pray

Quite Shame on you in an environment where we expect share prices and bonds to fall substantially. 2015 will be interesting!
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
lochaz-index
#484 Posted : Wednesday, June 17, 2015 12:37:52 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
mnandii wrote:
Allow me to state categorically that Equity is now emitting danger signals!

Apart from the planned major growth out of Kenya and into Africa, various loan products without strong security, diversification, we now have this:

Quote:
Equity woos investors with instant payment for share sales

Equity Bank is set to introduce instant payment for share sales in an aggressive fight for a piece of the brokerage and custodial business.

The lender, through its subsidiary Equity Investment Bank, in the next few weeks plans to launch a service that will allow customers to be paid once a sale order goes through.

“You should be able to get your money on the same hour or day that you sell your shares,” said Equity Group Holdings chief executive James Mwangi in an interview.

Normally, customers are paid up to three days after the transaction although some stockbrokers are able to shorten this period for specific clients because at any given day they know how much working capital is available in their account.

Equity Investment Bank said it is introducing the service to add value for its customers.

The lender also hopes to use the securities as collateral for customers taking loans.

Mr Mwangi said the custodial business enables the bank to lend using stocks and bonds
, which are more liquid than other forms of securities like land, as collateral. “This will enhance our ability to lend,” he said.


Biz daily

Pray Pray

Quite Shame on you in an environment where we expect share prices and bonds to fall substantially. 2015 will be interesting!


Remind us again why a T+0 settlement is dangerous...if anything it is worth emulating by the other brokerage houses.

With respect to equity's lending culture it is one of the most conservative even with real estate as the collateral.For example, you cannot get more than 52.5% of the worth of your real estate security unless you are one of the heavy hitters with massive bargaining power.Given that stocks are more volatile than real estate then they would be looking at a figure of 40% or less and that could also be pegged on the beta factor of the specific stock in question.

The other issues on expansion are normal business risks that are undertaken from time to time where learning is on the job.As a shareholder I would be pretty pissed if Equity was not proactive with innovations,expansion and ring fencing of certain markets inter alia if possible.That said a price drop is always welcome.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
mnandii
#485 Posted : Thursday, June 18, 2015 5:00:32 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#486 Posted : Thursday, June 18, 2015 5:02:16 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
The Fibonacci Sequence is the basis of the Wave Principle...

Ralph Nelson Elliott.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#487 Posted : Friday, June 19, 2015 7:41:51 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Erh! Ahem!

I think this worry about USDKES exchange rate is misplaced. Me believes there is no way the previous high of 108 Kes to USD will be breached. Kes will rise strongly against the USD soon!



I had posted this chart of the Exchange rate earlier this year. By then I was looking for the Kes to weaken.



The weakness should complete soon. Then we go below 70 Kes to 1 Dollar. smile

Actually, the reason I say 108 level shld not be broken is the wave 1 in the chart (which I label as impulse). The fall from the all-time high of 108 to about 82 is clearly an impulse wave. The weakness in the Kes we are experiencing now is a wave 2, a counter-trend rally. Second waves can never retrace more than 100% of first waves!

So, expect Kes to strengthen against the Dollar in the coming months.

NB: Another good reason why I don't expect 108 to be breached is the mood surrounding the weakening shilling. Everybody is crying and lamenting how the future for the Kes is bleak. smile

This is pre-requisite for a turn! Drool



In focus.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
hisah
#488 Posted : Friday, June 19, 2015 2:45:39 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@mnandii - I'm on the opposite side of your USDKES view. The KE econ is on slow puncture tyres. Where is the KES strength going to come from? That CBR rate hike was meant to scare the bears, but should USD breach 100 handle we are off to the all time highs! Can cbk afford another dramatic CBR hike of 150bps or more this year with the econ facing headwinds?

It is for these 2 reasons that I've now turned defensive in the market. CBR hike means liquidity squeeze/drain which knocks the econ while a crimped economy offers no incentive for a bullish case on equities.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
obiero
#489 Posted : Sunday, June 21, 2015 5:16:00 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,211
Location: nairobi
Wait.. Hon Emilio almost broke 60 on KES-USD.. That was quite a feat

KQ ABP 4.26
mnandii
#490 Posted : Monday, June 22, 2015 10:42:07 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
hisah wrote:
@mnandii - I'm on the opposite side of your USDKES view. The KE econ is on slow puncture tyres. Where is the KES strength going to come from? That CBR rate hike was meant to scare the bears, but should USD breach 100 handle we are off to the all time highs! Can cbk afford another dramatic CBR hike of 150bps or more this year with the econ facing headwinds?

It is for these 2 reasons that I've now turned defensive in the market. CBR hike means liquidity squeeze/drain which knocks the econ while a crimped economy offers no incentive for a bullish case on equities.



smile smile

We get to watch btw Fundies and Elliott who gets it right. I like this!
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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