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Ksh at its weakest since it floated in 1994
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hisah
#481 Posted : Monday, November 07, 2011 3:23:56 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@Kizee - I'm not talking of shorting TZS, I'm talking of the chart pattern. Just like KE, they can delay the inevitable, but the direction point skywards for a while. Unless the EA economies pull off a miracle to prevent the coming money winter, this is not going to end well.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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kizee1
#482 Posted : Monday, November 07, 2011 7:56:40 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
hisah wrote:
@Kizee - I'm not talking of shorting TZS, I'm talking of the chart pattern. Just like KE, they can delay the inevitable, but the direction point skywards for a while. Unless the EA economies pull off a miracle to prevent the coming money winter, this is not going to end well.


guess if u wanna participate in the tzs trade to 2000 u wud need to short tzs go long usd? on funding basis alone this isnt a trade worth ur time unless ur a tz onshore...thats what i meant...yea tzs is where kes was some months back ie inflationary pressures etc but and this a big but...unless ur an onshore u cannot short the pair
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hisah
#483 Posted : Thursday, November 10, 2011 5:54:48 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-kes - I can see CBK is still compressing this thing downwards, below 95 and aiming for 90. Applause
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#484 Posted : Thursday, November 10, 2011 5:57:20 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
kizee1 wrote:
hisah wrote:
@Kizee - I'm not talking of shorting TZS, I'm talking of the chart pattern. Just like KE, they can delay the inevitable, but the direction point skywards for a while. Unless the EA economies pull off a miracle to prevent the coming money winter, this is not going to end well.


guess if u wanna participate in the tzs trade to 2000 u wud need to short tzs go long usd? on funding basis alone this isnt a trade worth ur time unless ur a tz onshore...thats what i meant...yea tzs is where kes was some months back ie inflationary pressures etc but and this a big but...unless ur an onshore u cannot short the pair

Obviously from out here you can't touch TZS. By the way are you looking at the rand... I expect the USDZAR to test 9.00 or worse 10.00.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Cde Monomotapa
#485 Posted : Thursday, November 10, 2011 7:34:14 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
I think a reversal is in the offing. A shift to real safe havens being emerging mkt ccys. They should target net importer ccys like KES smile very much welcome.
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hisah
#486 Posted : Monday, November 14, 2011 12:20:05 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
So far KES & UGX have compressed the most unlike TZS which looks unconvincing. BoT should use the shock & awe card like KE & UG to force TZS below 1700.

I wonder if cbk's USDKES comfort cap will be 90 if they can force it below 90... They need to eliminate the crazy fx violatility for hot money to flow back into risk assets - NSE etc. At that point I'll be willing to release the tbill...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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kizee1
#487 Posted : Monday, November 14, 2011 1:18:52 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
hisah wrote:
So far KES & UGX have compressed the most unlike TZS which looks unconvincing. BoT should use the shock & awe card like KE & UG to force TZS below 1700.

I wonder if cbk's USDKES comfort cap will be 90 if they can force it below 90... They need to eliminate the crazy fx violatility for hot money to flow back into risk assets - NSE etc. At that point I'll be willing to release the tbill...



bwana hisah, are u techie fan? chek out the kes chart...theres a h&s pattern formed, neclikne at 97.65, so from a highj of 107..the min price objective(x)= 97.65-(107-97.65), solve for x(5pts)
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hisah
#488 Posted : Monday, November 14, 2011 9:32:47 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
kizee1 wrote:
hisah wrote:
So far KES & UGX have compressed the most unlike TZS which looks unconvincing. BoT should use the shock & awe card like KE & UG to force TZS below 1700.

I wonder if cbk's USDKES comfort cap will be 90 if they can force it below 90... They need to eliminate the crazy fx violatility for hot money to flow back into risk assets - NSE etc. At that point I'll be willing to release the tbill...



bwana hisah, are u techie fan? chek out the kes chart...theres a h&s pattern formed, neclikne at 97.65, so from a highj of 107..the min price objective(x)= 97.65-(107-97.65), solve for x(5pts)

I'm a TA fan. 1st target 88, then 86 then 82. The current H&S targets 87-88 levels.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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kizee1
#489 Posted : Monday, November 14, 2011 10:31:54 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
hisah wrote:
kizee1 wrote:
hisah wrote:
So far KES & UGX have compressed the most unlike TZS which looks unconvincing. BoT should use the shock & awe card like KE & UG to force TZS below 1700.

I wonder if cbk's USDKES comfort cap will be 90 if they can force it below 90... They need to eliminate the crazy fx violatility for hot money to flow back into risk assets - NSE etc. At that point I'll be willing to release the tbill...



bwana hisah, are u techie fan? chek out the kes chart...theres a h&s pattern formed, neclikne at 97.65, so from a highj of 107..the min price objective(x)= 97.65-(107-97.65), solve for x(5pts)

I'm a TA fan. 1st target 88, then 86 then 82. The current H&S targets 87-88 levels.


crazy stuff huh? basically all it took was cbk mopping up the takataka mashiringi they printed since 2009 eh?
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hisah
#490 Posted : Tuesday, November 15, 2011 4:42:23 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@Kizee - This is annoying not crazy. What was the point of the excess printing/devaluation? We need to move away from this short term fixes aka small minded mentally when it comes to fiscal policies. So far le prof is following volcker's way back in the 80's.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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