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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
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SittingPretty
#4771 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2014 4:39:01 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/16/2013
Posts: 123
Location: MSA
the deal wrote:
The market is falling on heavy volumes...the big boys want out...thats the scary part...the hydrocarbon play is overplayed...the US will be oil independent soon...they can really pull the rag on the demand side and let crude slide...If crude slides you will see oil majors postpone their exploration activity.

I think the prospects for Kenya's Eurobond are diminishing everyday...I dont know what took the Treasury so long to float the bond? They will have no one but themselfs to blame if the bond doesnt float.

At the beginning of the year I said the market could slide by 10-15% this year...I'm sticking to this script.


I think we will see a relief rally due to the earnings season...what happens after that will be blood bath....

So when earnings comes...lighten your load on stocks if you have ears.

I will only disagree on the US ability to control the crude prices. That clout was lost when the "7 Oil Sisters" as they were known then lost it against the producing countries after a wave of nationalization. The majors in total have booked reserves of less than 10%. On the other hand Saudi which used to cooperate to squeeze the market now minds its own balance sheet.
Speculators and I think @hisah knows rule the market and with the expensive Americas oil sands and China's appetite crude prices may never break below 90.
As for KK benefitting without a refinery I still cant get it! But I will hitch on the general sentiments!
Timely advice is as lovely as golden apples in a silver basket. Proverbs 25:11
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Cde Monomotapa
#4772 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2014 4:40:46 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
murchr wrote:
I think we dismissed US being our oil buyer in the 71B thread...China crude still at 90 usd range even without US


Hey...remember the easing of the one child policy. Let's start this year and in 18yrs?? smile

Also, if the African Century is anything to go by, we'll consume our own produce! Soko ni soko, ama? Yeah.
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, January 31, 2014 4:43 PM | Reason: Not specified
hisah
#4773 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2014 4:50:57 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Hydrocarbons is overplayed... Really smile Time will tell.

ION, NSE20 closes Jan 2014 in the red having erased all gains and breaking the green streak that started in Jan 2012. The index today slipped 2.16% to close the month @4,856.15.

NSE20 open 2014 @4910 and closes @4856 which sees the monthly movement at -1.09%.

As @deal states, earnings season could see a bounce on the cards, but my eye is on the eurobond since I don't think earnings will have the fire power to stem off the selling.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#4774 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2014 4:54:12 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Aguytrying wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
hisah wrote:
That vacuum sucking sound... As US funds pull out $2.6B from EM stocks a spike similar to Feb 2011. Late comers poleni sana. Corrections are part of the game. It was getting frothy with some crappy counters pretending to shine. Luckily wanjikus are very few at NSE since they're still onto real estate. And I expect those shamba threads to become plenty this year.

Let's see if 2014 will offer the expected discounts (volatile shakeouts) on the value counters for the next attack on 5000 - 5500 resistance forest.

No need for PPT since the Hydrocarbon play is still intact as a long term support for the expected push beyond 6161 to new all time highs as Wanjikus join the party enmass.

@aguy - value stocks (without froothy valuations) that get a haircut should be were to load up. I still fancy the laggards.

Don't fight the trend, let the market do its thing. The dust always settles, but before then the ulcers and the nightmares of the shakeouts can be very testing.

** Just as a reminder, risk management will be key this year as volatility makes a come back.**

Remember, last straw, Eurobond. Bad reception and 2011 is back on the cards...

#Word


@Hisah, SPT. Im deeply into laggards. Tpse, KK and now MSC. Might seem crazy but my target for MSC is 200% profit. ti hi hi. :d/

Welcome bwana @aguy. Btw ugly ducklings are the way to make money in any market. Buying the unpopular or undiscovered or unpolished value and waiting for Mr Market to spot you once done with the popular stars then the unpopular takes over smile
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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murchr
#4775 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2014 5:34:51 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
murchr wrote:
I think we dismissed US being our oil buyer in the 71B thread...China crude still at 90 usd range even without US


Hey...remember the easing of the one child policy. Let's start this year and in 18yrs?? smile

Also, if the African Century is anything to go by, we'll consume our own produce! Soko ni soko, ama? Yeah.


Ofcourse...everyone now wants to drive I mean look at NBO we're wondering how to tame the traffic let alone all other uses of crude
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, January 31, 2014 5:44 PM | Reason: Not specified
sparkly
#4776 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2014 6:24:53 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
hisah wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
hisah wrote:
That vacuum sucking sound... As US funds pull out $2.6B from EM stocks a spike similar to Feb 2011. Late comers poleni sana. Corrections are part of the game. It was getting frothy with some crappy counters pretending to shine. Luckily wanjikus are very few at NSE since they're still onto real estate. And I expect those shamba threads to become plenty this year.

Let's see if 2014 will offer the expected discounts (volatile shakeouts) on the value counters for the next attack on 5000 - 5500 resistance forest.

No need for PPT since the Hydrocarbon play is still intact as a long term support for the expected push beyond 6161 to new all time highs as Wanjikus join the party enmass.

@aguy - value stocks (without froothy valuations) that get a haircut should be were to load up. I still fancy the laggards.

Don't fight the trend, let the market do its thing. The dust always settles, but before then the ulcers and the nightmares of the shakeouts can be very testing.

** Just as a reminder, risk management will be key this year as volatility makes a come back.**

Remember, last straw, Eurobond. Bad reception and 2011 is back on the cards...

#Word


@Hisah, SPT. Im deeply into laggards. Tpse, KK and now MSC. Might seem crazy but my target for MSC is 200% profit. ti hi hi. :d/

Welcome bwana @aguy. Btw ugly ducklings are the way to make money in any market. Buying the unpopular or undiscovered or unpolished value and waiting for Mr Market to spot you once done with the popular stars then the unpopular takes over smile


I am watching this Drunk duckling called EABL. When its too drunk (150 on the alcoblow) i will kiss it mwaaah mwaaah Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Life is short. Live passionately.
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poundfoolish
#4777 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2014 6:28:32 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/2/2009
Posts: 2,458
Location: Nairobi
SittingPretty wrote:
the deal wrote:
The market is falling on heavy volumes...the big boys want out...thats the scary part...the hydrocarbon play is overplayed...the US will be oil independent soon...they can really pull the rag on the demand side and let crude slide...If crude slides you will see oil majors postpone their exploration activity.

I think the prospects for Kenya's Eurobond are diminishing everyday...I dont know what took the Treasury so long to float the bond? They will have no one but themselfs to blame if the bond doesnt float.

At the beginning of the year I said the market could slide by 10-15% this year...I'm sticking to this script.


I think we will see a relief rally due to the earnings season...what happens after that will be blood bath....

So when earnings comes...lighten your load on stocks if you have ears.

I will only disagree on the US ability to control the crude prices. That clout was lost when the "7 Oil Sisters" as they were known then lost it against the producing countries after a wave of nationalization. The majors in total have booked reserves of less than 10%. On the other hand Saudi which used to cooperate to squeeze the market now minds its own balance sheet.
Speculators and I think @hisah knows rule the market and with the expensive Americas oil sands and China's appetite crude prices may never break below 90.
As for KK benefitting without a refinery I still cant get it! But I will hitch on the general sentiments!


Apart form one or two long long term counters. I will off load with the earning season.
Once the US starts fracking properly, demand for the commodity will be diminished. The only positive side for us is reduced costs of the petroleum in the country and not export (sadly all our neighbours have it so are the closer ones across the ocean).
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murchr
#4778 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2014 7:00:30 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
poundfoolish wrote:
SittingPretty wrote:
the deal wrote:
The market is falling on heavy volumes...the big boys want out...thats the scary part...the hydrocarbon play is overplayed...the US will be oil independent soon...they can really pull the rag on the demand side and let crude slide...If crude slides you will see oil majors postpone their exploration activity.

I think the prospects for Kenya's Eurobond are diminishing everyday...I dont know what took the Treasury so long to float the bond? They will have no one but themselfs to blame if the bond doesnt float.

At the beginning of the year I said the market could slide by 10-15% this year...I'm sticking to this script.


I think we will see a relief rally due to the earnings season...what happens after that will be blood bath....

So when earnings comes...lighten your load on stocks if you have ears.

I will only disagree on the US ability to control the crude prices. That clout was lost when the "7 Oil Sisters" as they were known then lost it against the producing countries after a wave of nationalization. The majors in total have booked reserves of less than 10%. On the other hand Saudi which used to cooperate to squeeze the market now minds its own balance sheet.
Speculators and I think @hisah knows rule the market and with the expensive Americas oil sands and China's appetite crude prices may never break below 90.
As for KK benefitting without a refinery I still cant get it! But I will hitch on the general sentiments!


Apart form one or two long long term counters. I will off load with the earning season.
Once the US starts fracking properly, demand for the commodity will be diminished. The only positive side for us is reduced costs of the petroleum in the country and not export (sadly all our neighbours have it so are the closer ones across the ocean).


The US is already fracking properly si ati wameanza. Look at states such as N. Dakota http://www.forbes.com/si...c-boom-in-north-dakota/
oil money everywhere that hasnt stopped the states from getting the Dirty Oil from Alberta. The demand of oil grows by the day while its non renewable resource.

By the way I live in one mafuta nation and yea maisha ni tamu
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, January 31, 2014 8:34 PM | Reason: Not specified
Aguytrying
#4779 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2014 10:39:59 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
short termers will look back and wonder "what did I miss"
Venezuela did +357% last year. imagine missing such a rally
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Metasploit
#4780 Posted : Monday, February 03, 2014 11:52:03 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
Metasploit wrote:
Bargain window closing!

I have picked HFCK at 30,CFC at 85, KQ between 11.45 and 11.70 and Safcom at 11

Tried Kengen at 11.60 but it failed.

All in all thanks to the sellers!

And watch Kenya Re (the volumes)


The bellweather rebounds and on solid demand confirming the floor and change in trend!

Still discount trading on some of the counters!dont know why the fear on KCB trading at a quick > 15% gain

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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