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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#4751 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2014 12:48:18 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
hisah wrote:
That vacuum sucking sound... As US funds pull out $2.6B from EM stocks a spike similar to Feb 2011. Late comers poleni sana. Corrections are part of the game. It was getting frothy with some crappy counters pretending to shine. Luckily wanjikus are very few at NSE since they're still onto real estate. And I expect those shamba threads to become plenty this year.

Let's see if 2014 will offer the expected discounts (volatile shakeouts) on the value counters for the next attack on 5000 - 5500 resistance forest.

No need for PPT since the Hydrocarbon play is still intact as a long term support for the expected push beyond 6161 to new all time highs as Wanjikus join the party enmass.

@aguy - value stocks (without froothy valuations) that get a haircut should be were to load up. I still fancy the laggards.

Don't fight the trend, let the market do its thing. The dust always settles, but before then the ulcers and the nightmares of the shakeouts can be very testing.

** Just as a reminder, risk management will be key this year as volatility makes a come back.**

Remember, last straw, Eurobond. Bad reception and 2011 is back on the cards...

#Word
@SufficientlyP
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ecstacy
#4752 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2014 1:00:43 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
#TeamNBK holding strong.

Year of the laggards people. I can also see MSC fighting ANY Ksh. 2/= bob vibes Laughing out loudly
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, January 31, 2014 1:05 PM | Reason: Not specified
brizzy
#4753 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2014 1:01:47 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 4/23/2013
Posts: 14
Quite fascinated by this current market trends
The closer you look the less you see
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Metasploit
#4754 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2014 1:17:17 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
Bargain window closing!

I have picked HFCK at 30,CFC at 85, KQ between 11.45 and 11.70 and Safcom at 11

Tried Kengen at 11.60 but it failed.

All in all thanks to the sellers!

And watch Kenya Re (the volumes)

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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jerry
#4755 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2014 1:20:00 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
Metasploit wrote:
Bargain window closing!

I have picked HFCK at 30,CFC at 85, KQ between 11.45 and 11.70 and Safcom at 11

Tried Kengen at 11.60 but it failed.

All in all thanks to the sellers!

And watch Kenya Re (the volumes)

Interesting~!
Any relationship with Osuji? smile
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, January 31, 2014 1:21 PM | Reason: Not specified
bartum
#4756 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2014 1:35:46 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/11/2010
Posts: 1,011
Location: nairobi
jerry wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
Bargain window closing!

I have picked HFCK at 30,CFC at 85, KQ between 11.45 and 11.70 and Safcom at 11

Tried Kengen at 11.60 but it failed.

All in all thanks to the sellers!

And watch Kenya Re (the volumes)

Interesting~!
Any relationship with Osuji? smile

is it timing the market
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Cde Monomotapa
#4757 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2014 1:50:10 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
I think to re-balance the view on the Eurobond, we should also consider QE from the BoJ, ECB & BoE.
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hisah
#4758 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2014 2:16:16 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Will be interesting to see if EABL closes below 220 - 230 levels as the shaking continues. I don't think the rally is done on this counter. At some point it'll retest 400 again and head higher in future.

People should be excited with corrections? This is where you make your money, buying discounts on quality counters always offers nice bargains.

My watchlist so far - WTK, NMG, EABL, mpesa bank, KPLC, TCL and now adding MSC after yesterday's vol spike and USDKES cross. Buys for 2014 are NMG and WTK joining KQ (late 2013 buy) as posted on the wazua group as the first defence lines for this volatility pending the eurobond outcome. But that nice US Q4 GDP print might spook the eurobond uptake with a stronger USD.

If USDKES breaks above 87.50, I'll get more defensive and will be forced to sell some counters when that time comes.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#4759 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2014 2:37:56 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
The Merchant wrote:
hisah wrote:
Bearish against 180 (double top) on the FTSE NSE15 index weekly chart. The weekly has been toppish since the Nov 24 2013 upthrust week with the roof at 184. Likely for the entire Jan 2014 rally to be erased all the way down to Dec 2013 levels around 165 - 168. If this play out the same will be mirrored on NSE20 which means it'll lose the 5000 handle. Interesting this is happening just before results check in as well as the eurobond uptake. Reminds me of the infamous call back in Feb 2011 when I saw banks selloff hard even after announcing rosy 2010 results and USD went to 90/- and above...



Risk management will be key. Volatility is coming back...

Check post #2 - http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...spx?g=posts&t=11082


Actually, if it drops to the 165 level (the neck line), it would confirm a double top. After that a drop equal to the height of the two tops would be seen. A break of 165 if definitely something to worry about.Sad

@Merchant - How about this ATM on the FTSE NSE15. Redness back to May 2013 levels during the funny euphoria period post elections. The neckline has been tested today as Jan closes. Feb should see the haircuts continue.

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Cde Monomotapa
#4760 Posted : Friday, January 31, 2014 2:38:42 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
I think to re-balance the view on the Eurobond, we should also consider QE from the BoJ, ECB & BoE.


@hisah I'm looking at it from a perspective that there must be yield seekers out there. So if they have devaluing Yens, Euros & or GBPs, then why not buy into a USD frontier sovereign bond and make 6-7%? Especially one with a strong emerging mineral & hydrocarbon play? Glorified by the IMF too. smile (distorts the Junk Bond look in the long run - tenor)

What do you think?
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, January 31, 2014 2:48 PM | Reason: Not specified
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