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Kenya Airways...why ignore..
ArrestedDev
#8981 Posted : Friday, November 17, 2017 10:31:40 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/29/2016
Posts: 898
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
[quote=ProverB]A dilution close to 20times what one holds..
A parachute offered of 4:1 at an additional cost of 1.80 per share..

A company that is still in the red despite sigh of relief from improved margins..though revenues are flat.

And we expect rapid rise in share price? Laughing out loudly


1. Irrational exuberance on part of shareholders.

2. Ukiritimba.. Whatever that means..on part of KQ.

Nevertheless, carry on. KQ will be good for those who come in later to collect the pieces..but not existing shareholders.

Strictly talking shares trading..
Lessons from safaricom upon listing.. Volume of shares available for trading slumped share price for a long while despite good fundamentals.

Large volumes of KQ shares available as of 29th will have to be wiped out by larger buyers to ensure demand always outweighs supply for the share price to go up.

Unless all existing shareholders REFUSE to sell..rise in share price ni uchawi.

There should be a refusal to sell for any price below KES 21.50 per share, unless the Open Offer details are rolled out before 29.11.2017


Open offer/rights issue for KQ probably next year.
ksh.21.50 per share on 29.11.2017 ni ndoto hiyo.
Are we saying that KQ will be worth more than KCB in terms of market capitalisation in the NSE.
5.822bn shares *ksh.21.5=
The company is just from announcing HY loss of ksh.3.8bn after tax.
29.11.2017 my prediction is KQ will be trading at between 1.50-2.00 per share

That's where you go wrong, quick math will show you that the banks converted debt to equity at a given sum total based on KES 2.13 per share which was then split at a ratio of 1:4 giving rise to the new floor of KES 8.52.. It's practically impossible for any sane existing investor to trade at any sum below KES 8.52.. Am I deluded or extremely wise..

Meanwhile KQ now has the most vibrant board at the NSE http://www.businessdaily...966-14hskl1z/index.html[/quote]

I previously mentioned Oduor Otieno in this forum. He has a track record that can be vouched. Carol Musyoka is also an intelligent lady.
VituVingiSana
#8982 Posted : Saturday, November 18, 2017 4:10:50 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,084
Location: Nairobi
HaMaina wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Kusadikika wrote:
So what will the price be when this opens on Nov.29? Banks got shares at 2.13 so they can make a profit selling at 2.15. Who wants to hold shares when you can have cash?

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly 1% Capital Gains after all the drama! Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Let me have my ka-small dividend from Kenya Re!


Looks like just a clever way of clearing outstanding debt.

Not really. The banks are unlikely to find buyers, any time soon, for all the shares they have been sold. Banks are going to have a very high Opportunity Cost on these shares.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#8983 Posted : Saturday, November 18, 2017 4:18:09 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,084
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
ProverB wrote:
A dilution close to 20times what one holds..
A parachute offered of 4:1 at an additional cost of 1.80 per share..

A company that is still in the red despite sigh of relief from improved margins..though revenues are flat.

And we expect rapid rise in share price? Laughing out loudly


1. Irrational exuberance on part of shareholders.

2. Ukiritimba.. Whatever that means..on part of KQ.

Nevertheless, carry on. KQ will be good for those who come in later to collect the pieces..but not existing shareholders.

Strictly talking shares trading..
Lessons from safaricom upon listing.. Volume of shares available for trading slumped share price for a long while despite good fundamentals.

Large volumes of KQ shares available as of 29th will have to be wiped out by larger buyers to ensure demand always outweighs supply for the share price to go up.

Unless all existing shareholders REFUSE to sell..rise in share price ni uchawi.

There should be a refusal to sell for any price below KES 21.50 per share, unless the Open Offer details are rolled out before 29.11.2017

21.50 for KQ? Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Then KenRe should sell for 2150/- with the assets it has! Drool Drool Drool

Question: When will KQ stop feeding at the Taxpayer's trough?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ericsson
#8984 Posted : Saturday, November 18, 2017 7:57:45 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,663
Location: NAIROBI
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
[quote=ProverB]A dilution close to 20times what one holds..
A parachute offered of 4:1 at an additional cost of 1.80 per share..

A company that is still in the red despite sigh of relief from improved margins..though revenues are flat.

And we expect rapid rise in share price? Laughing out loudly


1. Irrational exuberance on part of shareholders.

2. Ukiritimba.. Whatever that means..on part of KQ.

Nevertheless, carry on. KQ will be good for those who come in later to collect the pieces..but not existing shareholders.

Strictly talking shares trading..
Lessons from safaricom upon listing.. Volume of shares available for trading slumped share price for a long while despite good fundamentals.

Large volumes of KQ shares available as of 29th will have to be wiped out by larger buyers to ensure demand always outweighs supply for the share price to go up.

Unless all existing shareholders REFUSE to sell..rise in share price ni uchawi.

There should be a refusal to sell for any price below KES 21.50 per share, unless the Open Offer details are rolled out before 29.11.2017


Open offer/rights issue for KQ probably next year.
ksh.21.50 per share on 29.11.2017 ni ndoto hiyo.
Are we saying that KQ will be worth more than KCB in terms of market capitalisation in the NSE.
5.822bn shares *ksh.21.5=
The company is just from announcing HY loss of ksh.3.8bn after tax.
29.11.2017 my prediction is KQ will be trading at between 1.50-2.00 per share

That's where you go wrong, quick math will show you that the banks converted debt to equity at a given sum total based on KES 2.13 per share which was then split at a ratio of 1:4 giving rise to the new floor of KES 8.52.. It's practically impossible for any sane existing investor to trade at any sum below KES 8.52.. Am I deluded or extremely wise..

The biggest lie in wazua republic.That maths doesn't fit.

Meanwhile KQ now has the most vibrant board at the NSE http://www.businessdaily...966-14hskl1z/index.html[/quote]

I doubt whether I am wrong.. Page 12 of www.winda.co.ke/projectsafari.pdf states that KES 22.7B is the sum invested by KQ Lenders Co Ltd at KES 2.13 as part of debt to equity conversion on the back of 10.67B shares which equates to 2.66B shares post split at KES 8.52.. There's simply no other way to look at this restructuring pricing, unless you break it down contrary to my workings


Another lie the sum invested by KQ lenders is ksh.17.2bn and the shares they have been allocated is 2.219bn

What point are you driving across.. It's common knowledge that there was an adjustment in the final tally.. Well, basing on your argument, it's 18.9B total KQ debt owed to KQ Lenders Co Ltd converted from debt to equity at 8.876 shares each at KES 2.13, equating to 2.219 shares at KES 8.52. Same difference!


@Obiero you can't be helped.Who has said 18.9bn debt is what was converted into equity.
You are really trying to force the 2.13 and 8.52 but it's not fitting anywhere.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
obiero
#8985 Posted : Saturday, November 18, 2017 10:23:06 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,488
Location: nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
[quote=ProverB]A dilution close to 20times what one holds..
A parachute offered of 4:1 at an additional cost of 1.80 per share..

A company that is still in the red despite sigh of relief from improved margins..though revenues are flat.

And we expect rapid rise in share price? Laughing out loudly


1. Irrational exuberance on part of shareholders.

2. Ukiritimba.. Whatever that means..on part of KQ.

Nevertheless, carry on. KQ will be good for those who come in later to collect the pieces..but not existing shareholders.

Strictly talking shares trading..
Lessons from safaricom upon listing.. Volume of shares available for trading slumped share price for a long while despite good fundamentals.

Large volumes of KQ shares available as of 29th will have to be wiped out by larger buyers to ensure demand always outweighs supply for the share price to go up.

Unless all existing shareholders REFUSE to sell..rise in share price ni uchawi.

There should be a refusal to sell for any price below KES 21.50 per share, unless the Open Offer details are rolled out before 29.11.2017


Open offer/rights issue for KQ probably next year.
ksh.21.50 per share on 29.11.2017 ni ndoto hiyo.
Are we saying that KQ will be worth more than KCB in terms of market capitalisation in the NSE.
5.822bn shares *ksh.21.5=
The company is just from announcing HY loss of ksh.3.8bn after tax.
29.11.2017 my prediction is KQ will be trading at between 1.50-2.00 per share

That's where you go wrong, quick math will show you that the banks converted debt to equity at a given sum total based on KES 2.13 per share which was then split at a ratio of 1:4 giving rise to the new floor of KES 8.52.. It's practically impossible for any sane existing investor to trade at any sum below KES 8.52.. Am I deluded or extremely wise..

The biggest lie in wazua republic.That maths doesn't fit.

Meanwhile KQ now has the most vibrant board at the NSE http://www.businessdaily...966-14hskl1z/index.html[/quote]

I doubt whether I am wrong.. Page 12 of www.winda.co.ke/projectsafari.pdf states that KES 22.7B is the sum invested by KQ Lenders Co Ltd at KES 2.13 as part of debt to equity conversion on the back of 10.67B shares which equates to 2.66B shares post split at KES 8.52.. There's simply no other way to look at this restructuring pricing, unless you break it down contrary to my workings


Another lie the sum invested by KQ lenders is ksh.17.2bn and the shares they have been allocated is 2.219bn

What point are you driving across.. It's common knowledge that there was an adjustment in the final tally.. Well, basing on your argument, it's 18.9B total KQ debt owed to KQ Lenders Co Ltd converted from debt to equity at 8.876 shares each at KES 2.13, equating to 2.219 shares at KES 8.52. Same difference!


@Obiero you can't be helped.Who has said 18.9bn debt is what was converted into equity.
You are really trying to force the 2.13 and 8.52 but it's not fitting anywhere.

Well I guess we just need to wait for 29.11.2017 for confirmation

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
obiero
#8986 Posted : Monday, November 20, 2017 5:08:37 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,488
Location: nairobi
6 trading sessions to go

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
Spikes
#8987 Posted : Monday, November 20, 2017 5:38:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
[quote=ProverB]A dilution close to 20times what one holds..
A parachute offered of 4:1 at an additional cost of 1.80 per share..

A company that is still in the red despite sigh of relief from improved margins..though revenues are flat.

And we expect rapid rise in share price? Laughing out loudly


1. Irrational exuberance on part of shareholders.

2. Ukiritimba.. Whatever that means..on part of KQ.

Nevertheless, carry on. KQ will be good for those who come in later to collect the pieces..but not existing shareholders.

Strictly talking shares trading..
Lessons from safaricom upon listing.. Volume of shares available for trading slumped share price for a long while despite good fundamentals.

Large volumes of KQ shares available as of 29th will have to be wiped out by larger buyers to ensure demand always outweighs supply for the share price to go up.

Unless all existing shareholders REFUSE to sell..rise in share price ni uchawi.

There should be a refusal to sell for any price below KES 21.50 per share, unless the Open Offer details are rolled out before 29.11.2017


Open offer/rights issue for KQ probably next year.
ksh.21.50 per share on 29.11.2017 ni ndoto hiyo.
Are we saying that KQ will be worth more than KCB in terms of market capitalisation in the NSE.
5.822bn shares *ksh.21.5=
The company is just from announcing HY loss of ksh.3.8bn after tax.
29.11.2017 my prediction is KQ will be trading at between 1.50-2.00 per share

That's where you go wrong, quick math will show you that the banks converted debt to equity at a given sum total based on KES 2.13 per share which was then split at a ratio of 1:4 giving rise to the new floor of KES 8.52.. It's practically impossible for any sane existing investor to trade at any sum below KES 8.52.. Am I deluded or extremely wise..

The biggest lie in wazua republic.That maths doesn't fit.

Meanwhile KQ now has the most vibrant board at the NSE http://www.businessdaily...966-14hskl1z/index.html[/quote]

I doubt whether I am wrong.. Page 12 of www.winda.co.ke/projectsafari.pdf states that KES 22.7B is the sum invested by KQ Lenders Co Ltd at KES 2.13 as part of debt to equity conversion on the back of 10.67B shares which equates to 2.66B shares post split at KES 8.52.. There's simply no other way to look at this restructuring pricing, unless you break it down contrary to my workings


Another lie the sum invested by KQ lenders is ksh.17.2bn and the shares they have been allocated is 2.219bn

What point are you driving across.. It's common knowledge that there was an adjustment in the final tally.. Well, basing on your argument, it's 18.9B total KQ debt owed to KQ Lenders Co Ltd converted from debt to equity at 8.876 shares each at KES 2.13, equating to 2.219 shares at KES 8.52. Same difference!


@Obiero you can't be helped.Who has said 18.9bn debt is what was converted into equity.
You are really trying to force the 2.13 and 8.52 but it's not fitting anywhere.

Well I guess we just need to wait for 29.11.2017 for confirmation


The countdown is on!
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
obiero
#8988 Posted : Monday, November 20, 2017 5:43:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,488
Location: nairobi
Spikes wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
[quote=ProverB]A dilution close to 20times what one holds..
A parachute offered of 4:1 at an additional cost of 1.80 per share..

A company that is still in the red despite sigh of relief from improved margins..though revenues are flat.

And we expect rapid rise in share price? Laughing out loudly


1. Irrational exuberance on part of shareholders.

2. Ukiritimba.. Whatever that means..on part of KQ.

Nevertheless, carry on. KQ will be good for those who come in later to collect the pieces..but not existing shareholders.

Strictly talking shares trading..
Lessons from safaricom upon listing.. Volume of shares available for trading slumped share price for a long while despite good fundamentals.

Large volumes of KQ shares available as of 29th will have to be wiped out by larger buyers to ensure demand always outweighs supply for the share price to go up.

Unless all existing shareholders REFUSE to sell..rise in share price ni uchawi.

There should be a refusal to sell for any price below KES 21.50 per share, unless the Open Offer details are rolled out before 29.11.2017


Open offer/rights issue for KQ probably next year.
ksh.21.50 per share on 29.11.2017 ni ndoto hiyo.
Are we saying that KQ will be worth more than KCB in terms of market capitalisation in the NSE.
5.822bn shares *ksh.21.5=
The company is just from announcing HY loss of ksh.3.8bn after tax.
29.11.2017 my prediction is KQ will be trading at between 1.50-2.00 per share

That's where you go wrong, quick math will show you that the banks converted debt to equity at a given sum total based on KES 2.13 per share which was then split at a ratio of 1:4 giving rise to the new floor of KES 8.52.. It's practically impossible for any sane existing investor to trade at any sum below KES 8.52.. Am I deluded or extremely wise..

The biggest lie in wazua republic.That maths doesn't fit.

Meanwhile KQ now has the most vibrant board at the NSE http://www.businessdaily...966-14hskl1z/index.html[/quote]

I doubt whether I am wrong.. Page 12 of www.winda.co.ke/projectsafari.pdf states that KES 22.7B is the sum invested by KQ Lenders Co Ltd at KES 2.13 as part of debt to equity conversion on the back of 10.67B shares which equates to 2.66B shares post split at KES 8.52.. There's simply no other way to look at this restructuring pricing, unless you break it down contrary to my workings


Another lie the sum invested by KQ lenders is ksh.17.2bn and the shares they have been allocated is 2.219bn

What point are you driving across.. It's common knowledge that there was an adjustment in the final tally.. Well, basing on your argument, it's 18.9B total KQ debt owed to KQ Lenders Co Ltd converted from debt to equity at 8.876 shares each at KES 2.13, equating to 2.219 shares at KES 8.52. Same difference!


@Obiero you can't be helped.Who has said 18.9bn debt is what was converted into equity.
You are really trying to force the 2.13 and 8.52 but it's not fitting anywhere.

Well I guess we just need to wait for 29.11.2017 for confirmation


The countdown is on!

Yes indeed..

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
HaMaina
#8989 Posted : Tuesday, November 21, 2017 8:06:38 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/23/2014
Posts: 908
KLM loses out in Kenya Airways debt-equity swap

http://www.theeastafrica...2648-jbe3akz/index.html

To Quote :- “Banks should sell their stake immediately an opportunity to exit presents itself. They have no business being equity investors in the first place, it was forced on them by circumstances,” AIB Capital analyst Dominic Ruriga told The EastAfrican.
“You can get in way more trouble with a good idea than a bad idea, because you forget that the good idea has limits.” - Ben Graham
lochaz-index
#8990 Posted : Tuesday, November 21, 2017 10:14:18 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
HaMaina wrote:
KLM loses out in Kenya Airways debt-equity swap

http://www.theeastafrica...2648-jbe3akz/index.html

To Quote :- “Banks should sell their stake immediately an opportunity to exit presents itself. They have no business being equity investors in the first place, it was forced on them by circumstances,” AIB Capital analyst Dominic Ruriga told The EastAfrican.

The opportunity cost for the banks to hold on to the KQ shares is simply too huge. However, if they head for the exits en masse that would depress the share price for a long period with some getting trapped till the 10 year govt bailout is due. Seems like the banks' shareholding will determine KQ's price in a good old fashioned prisoner's dilemma play-out.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
Chuck Norrith
#8991 Posted : Tuesday, November 21, 2017 11:37:12 AM
Rank: Hello


Joined: 1/12/2016
Posts: 1
lochaz-index wrote:
HaMaina wrote:
KLM loses out in Kenya Airways debt-equity swap

http://www.theeastafrica...2648-jbe3akz/index.html

To Quote :- “Banks should sell their stake immediately an opportunity to exit presents itself. They have no business being equity investors in the first place, it was forced on them by circumstances,” AIB Capital analyst Dominic Ruriga told The EastAfrican.

The opportunity cost for the banks to hold on to the KQ shares is simply too huge. However, if they head for the exits en masse that would depress the share price for a long period with some getting trapped till the 10 year govt bailout is due. Seems like the banks' shareholding will determine KQ's price in a good old fashioned prisoner's dilemma play-out.


Interesting point of view; either way, banks were coerced into the proverbial rock-vs-hard-place dilemma. In the short term though, Jamii Bora seem to have gotten the better option.
obiero
#8992 Posted : Tuesday, November 21, 2017 4:23:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,488
Location: nairobi
Chuck Norrith wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
HaMaina wrote:
KLM loses out in Kenya Airways debt-equity swap

http://www.theeastafrica...2648-jbe3akz/index.html

To Quote :- “Banks should sell their stake immediately an opportunity to exit presents itself. They have no business being equity investors in the first place, it was forced on them by circumstances,” AIB Capital analyst Dominic Ruriga told The EastAfrican.

The opportunity cost for the banks to hold on to the KQ shares is simply too huge. However, if they head for the exits en masse that would depress the share price for a long period with some getting trapped till the 10 year govt bailout is due. Seems like the banks' shareholding will determine KQ's price in a good old fashioned prisoner's dilemma play-out.


Interesting point of view; either way, banks were coerced into the proverbial rock-vs-hard-place dilemma. In the short term though, Jamii Bora seem to have gotten the better option.

Jamii Bora screwed it up for themselves.. Watch this space

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
obiero
#8993 Posted : Wednesday, November 22, 2017 8:49:29 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,488
Location: nairobi
4 trading days to go

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
HaMaina
#8994 Posted : Wednesday, November 22, 2017 9:12:25 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/23/2014
Posts: 908
obiero wrote:
4 trading days to go

All the best Obiero.

“You can get in way more trouble with a good idea than a bad idea, because you forget that the good idea has limits.” - Ben Graham
obiero
#8995 Posted : Wednesday, November 22, 2017 6:53:06 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,488
Location: nairobi
HaMaina wrote:
obiero wrote:
4 trading days to go

All the best Obiero.


Thanks @HaMaina... Good news still flowing in the build up to the rally of a lifetime http://www.businessdaily...97200-v8ktljz/index.html

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
obiero
#8996 Posted : Thursday, November 23, 2017 6:59:11 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,488
Location: nairobi
2 trading days to go

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
obiero
#8997 Posted : Friday, November 24, 2017 5:37:09 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,488
Location: nairobi
1 trading day to lift-off.. Mark these words, minimum KES 8.52, maximum intra day KES 14. Fair value KES 12.5

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
the deal
#8998 Posted : Friday, November 24, 2017 8:03:13 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
obiero wrote:
1 trading day to lift-off.. Mark these words, minimum KES 8.52, maximum intra day KES 14. Fair value KES 12.5

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Obiero for the title of Supporter of the Year... KQ should give you free tickets
obiero
#8999 Posted : Friday, November 24, 2017 8:30:48 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,488
Location: nairobi
the deal wrote:
obiero wrote:
1 trading day to lift-off.. Mark these words, minimum KES 8.52, maximum intra day KES 14. Fair value KES 12.5

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Obiero for the title of Supporter of the Year... KQ should give you free tickets

Hehe.. I accept the award

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
Spikes
#9000 Posted : Saturday, November 25, 2017 6:51:35 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
obiero wrote:
the deal wrote:
obiero wrote:
1 trading day to lift-off.. Mark these words, minimum KES 8.52, maximum intra day KES 14. Fair value KES 12.5

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Obiero for the title of Supporter of the Year... KQ should give you free tickets

Hehe.. I accept the award


@obiero How do you value stocks? Fundamentals or speculative information?
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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