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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
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hisah
#4311 Posted : Friday, November 01, 2013 10:53:42 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
mwekez@ji wrote:
Equity bank emerges top mover in the past three consecutive sessions driven by foreign investors buying #TheMarketThisWeek

Former all time resistance at 35 is now support. I expect this one to behave like mpesa bank after breaking above 7.50. It will be interesting when the fireworks start.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, November 01, 2013 11:32 AM | Reason: Not specified
hisah
#4312 Posted : Friday, November 01, 2013 11:31:27 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
Interesting bull vs bear fight. This congestion has to be resolved and soon to determine the dorminant trend.



UPDATE: Ascending triangle. Some reading here - http://www.investopedia....a/ascendingtriangle.asp

Revisiting post 4177 on Oct 16.

NSE 20 is getting ready to attack 5000 and 5030 (the year high) as per BB pattern on the chart. Upper BB is set at 4981 while the index closed at 4992 yesterday.




5100 needs to break down if the bulls are to dismiss the 5000 - 5100 resistance barrier then 5200 - 5500 becomes the next levels to target.

5000 - 5100 range has rejected bulls 4 times this year. Failure on the 5th attempt will not be a good sign and this is why I state that Jan-Feb 2014 rally will be a sucker rally as long as 5100 stands as a barrier.

If bulls dismiss this stubborn resistance before year end, then Q1 2014 will be as interesting as Q1 2013.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Aguytrying
#4313 Posted : Friday, November 01, 2013 1:49:55 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
I have now seen the signs of the bull and its slaughter. If you looked at the NSE today you'd be forgiven for thinking you were looking at 2010. The casual investors are gaining confidence in the market day by day. They know how much safcom is trading at. wait for the headlines when it reaches 10.00.
For other investors, this should really be a time of fear, fear of extreme over valuation. do you sell, do you hold? you certainly cant buy over valued counters? or can you? choice is yours.
It will be a time of great joy until its not. the oil finds complicate issues, the bull may last a long long time and if the market start rallying like crazy every year, who will want to be left of stocks?
That's why i say its a time to be fearful. Fortunately, there are some counters that for one reason or another have not joined the fair valuation bandwagon or are "only" fairly valued ( we can now afford to be ok with fairly valued) so that gives some respite for now.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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hisah
#4314 Posted : Friday, November 01, 2013 2:06:19 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Aguytrying wrote:
I have now seen the signs of the bull and its slaughter. If you looked at the NSE today you'd be forgiven for thinking you were looking at 2010. The casual investors are gaining confidence in the market day by day. They know how much safcom is trading at. wait for the headlines when it reaches 10.00.
For other investors, this should really be a time of fear, fear of extreme over valuation. do you sell, do you hold? you certainly cant buy over valued counters? or can you? choice is yours.
It will be a time of great joy until its not. the oil finds complicate issues, the bull may last a long long time and if the market start rallying like crazy every year, who will want to be left of stocks?
That's why i say its a time to be fearful. Fortunately, there are some counters that for one reason or another have not joined the fair valuation bandwagon or are "only" fairly valued ( we can now afford to be ok with fairly valued) so that gives some respite for now.

Still a distance away from the euphoria of 2005 - 2006 when crap was floating higher than solid counters and the avg market PER has not yet vaulted above 15 heading towards 20. Still a lot of plots and houses for sale threads as real estate fights with equities... Wanjiku will be back and it'll be obvious on the investor section threads...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Aguytrying
#4315 Posted : Saturday, November 02, 2013 11:46:50 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@hisah. It hasn't yet reached those levels, but we may be at the beginning of that euphoria
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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  | | Edit by user: Saturday, November 02, 2013 11:49 AM | Reason: Not specified
hisah
#4316 Posted : Monday, November 04, 2013 12:16:55 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Mpesa bank trade a high of 9.90 a day before H1 results.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#4317 Posted : Monday, November 04, 2013 12:22:41 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Quote:
Institutional and individual investors are expected to fly in for the two- day meeting that opens on Wednesday at the Villa Rosa Kempinsky Nairobi hotel, which is specifically cut out for deal-making.

The list of international investors includes JPMorgan, Citibank, PE firm Helios Investment Partners, as well as sovereign wealth funds KfW (German) and Proparco (French). High ranking government officials, including ministers from Kenya and Uganda, will also be in attendance.


Nairobi hosts international investment summit this week - http://www.businessdaily.../-/hn19kdz/-/index.html

I can see JP Morgue and Citi are lurking around. Not a fun of this big banks, but a necessary evil.

SWF is the game I've been looking forward to and I can see Ze germans and Le french are in town.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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the deal
#4318 Posted : Wednesday, November 06, 2013 7:50:31 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Market has been correcting over the last 3 sessions...5,000 remains a very strong barrier.

Interbank rate at 12% wooow!
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Aguytrying
#4319 Posted : Wednesday, November 06, 2013 9:23:34 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
the deal wrote:
Market has been correcting over the last 3 sessions...5,000 remains a very strong barrier.

Interbank rate at 12% wooow!


crossing 5000 pts from tomorrow. just needs eabl to rise. it's far from the 400.00 it was when we crossed 5000 pts a few months back. and a few others like equity.
5000 we shall cross!!
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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hisah
#4320 Posted : Wednesday, November 06, 2013 9:50:37 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Aguytrying wrote:
the deal wrote:
Market has been correcting over the last 3 sessions...5,000 remains a very strong barrier.

Interbank rate at 12% wooow!


crossing 5000 pts from tomorrow. just needs eabl to rise. it's far from the 400.00 it was when we crossed 5000 pts a few months back. and a few others like equity.
5000 we shall cross!!

5000 barrier is not that easy to dismiss. A lot of bid pressure is needed. Mpesa bank has tried to keep things afloat. Big banks need to keep pushing to offer more support as mpesa bank cools off.

5000 has rejected progress 4 times. The more times the rejection happens the more likely a sucker rally will form. 5100 breakout still remains the key for bulls. Otherwise a selloff will show up.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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