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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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Metasploit
#421 Posted : Thursday, May 28, 2015 2:14:22 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
Boris Boyka wrote:
Cfc bank @107. Seems 100 could be broken.


Is it still trading cum-Div ?

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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mnandii
#422 Posted : Thursday, May 28, 2015 4:47:41 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Gatheuzi wrote:
mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:
The bear is at hand guys. Unfortunately many will not 'see' it come until they are consumed by it!



Assuming wave (4) is complete (evidence suggests it is ) then we can target the termination of wave (5). Options:

a) Wave (5) being equal to wave (1) then wave (5) terminates at (5100.51-185.8) = 4914.71

b) Wave (5) being Fibonacci 0.618 of wave (1) then wave (5) target is [5100.51-(0.618 X 185.8)] = 4985.69

c) Wave (5) being Fibonacci 1.618 of wave (1) then wave (5) target is [5100.51-(1.618 X 185.8)] = 4799.89

The c option is more likely. I expect lots of volatility starting tomorrow 11th May. In that case an elongated wave (5) would make sense. Also, as I have been saying for sometime, I want a clean break of the NSE 20 Index below 4907 level to increase odds of the bear to almost certainity. Option c would make ensure of that.

Summary:

Expect huge volatility starting tomorrow 11th May. Watch of 4907 level. Re-evaluate your share holdings in the NSE.


The NSE 20 Share Index closes at 4879.95 May, 22nd, And well below our cited previous fourth wave (4907) level.


Index at 4858 on Monday 25th. Closer and closer to scenario c.


Index at 4805. smile
Only 5 points away from option c.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#423 Posted : Thursday, May 28, 2015 4:54:09 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Now you can google [behaviour + following + fifth + wave + extensions + elliott + waves] to know what to expect next.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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winmak
#424 Posted : Thursday, May 28, 2015 6:32:59 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 12/1/2007
Posts: 539
Location: Nakuru
Mnandii you are really enjoying this... Spare a thought for those of us gnashing our teeth
For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases ~ WB
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mnandii
#425 Posted : Thursday, May 28, 2015 9:33:04 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
winmak wrote:
Mnandii you are really enjoying this... Spare a thought for those of us gnashing our teeth


Eish yawa! smile

The thing is there is still time to get out of the market. i. e expect a quick upward reversal to about 5000 level soon. smile
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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hisah
#426 Posted : Friday, May 29, 2015 1:47:17 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Financials (banks and insurance) stocks will take it in chin when the bear gets rolling. Sharp turn ahead for bulls! Index bounces are now opportunities for fading (get out of jail keys).

I'm still waiting for lessons learnt tales to spike as a confirmation that capitulation is peaking up in the market. By year end it'll be interesting.

Fat tails season 2 premiers when 4500 support breaks down.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mkonomtupu
#427 Posted : Friday, May 29, 2015 2:43:17 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
mnandii wrote:
winmak wrote:
Mnandii you are really enjoying this... Spare a thought for those of us gnashing our teeth


Eish yawa! smile

The thing is there is still time to get out of the market. i. e expect a quick upward reversal to about 5000 level soon. smile


wave B
Quote:
Aly Khan Satchu, an independent trader and analyst, said the
differing performance by the indices could mean the weeks-long
losing streak at the bourse may be coming to an end.
"There were some green shoots today but we have to see how
it pans out," Satchu said.


If that Wave C turns up and subdivides into a five wave pattern I will abandon fundies and concentrate on techies
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kazee
#428 Posted : Friday, May 29, 2015 3:34:03 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/18/2006
Posts: 131
Noting that the main gainers of late include the likes of eveready, Mumias, FTGH, guess there is reason that the sellout might continue for sometime.
Add to that the MPC meeting which has been brought forward and most people expect a rate hike and some liquidity squeeze which lead to rise in lending rate. Most people may sell to offset loans, invest in Tbills whose rate may rise and FXD deposit rates may also become too attractive to ignore
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hisah
#429 Posted : Friday, May 29, 2015 8:00:29 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@mnandii - NSE20 ends the week below 4800 and closes @4786. Quite oversold and a bounce is likely. But the way the index has been slicing through support from 5100 to below 4800 means we're just getting started on the sellside!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, May 29, 2015 8:04 PM | Reason: Not specified
the deal
#430 Posted : Friday, May 29, 2015 8:11:33 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Not been following the NSE offlate...been very busy but sentiment is very weak....
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