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Ksh at its weakest since it floated in 1994
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Cde Monomotapa
#841 Posted : Saturday, April 13, 2013 1:34:05 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Cheers @Chief Hisah. It's hammer time indeed & for a longtime oil Bear, must say this is good progress but would like more demand fundamentals incorpd too! What's surprising is gold, that should be going up...As for Bitcoin, it's a sham ccy - my long & short.
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hisah
#842 Posted : Thursday, April 18, 2013 5:46:27 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Analysis of KES vs Pound - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpP4vtIzXS4

Though this is a very simplistic analysis without factoring the cost of production where transportation, funny fuel regulation prices and KPLC come in...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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symbols
#843 Posted : Tuesday, April 23, 2013 5:31:08 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/19/2013
Posts: 2,552
I've been trying to get a better understanding of what moves the Ksh.Importers is one thing but I don't understand the major players and their obligations e.g. like manufacturers.Does anyone have more information on this e.g. exporters,importers,manufacturers,foreign investors anything?
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kizee1
#844 Posted : Tuesday, April 23, 2013 6:59:07 PM
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Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
Cbk
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hisah
#845 Posted : Wednesday, April 24, 2013 2:37:15 PM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
JPYKES chart showing classic Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern. That yen will go below 70/- and much lower vs KES. Car importers will be smiling as well as jap exporters to KE as more goods are bought.




Quote:
The head and shoulders pattern is generally regarded as a reversal pattern and it is most often seen in uptrends.


http://www.chartpatterns.com/headandshoulders.htm
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#846 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2013 5:30:08 PM
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Posts: 8,977
IMF hints at KE eurobond float at $1 Billion by Q4 2013. KES to take on USD yet again. Holding USD against KES will be tricky if this float is fully or oversubscribed.

www.businessdailyafrica....04/-/gf5pot/-/index.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Cde Monomotapa
#847 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2013 6:17:22 PM
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Joined: 1/13/2011
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hisah wrote:
IMF hints at KE eurobond float at $1 Billion by Q4 2013. KES to take on USD yet again. Holding USD against KES will be tricky if this float is fully or oversubscribed.

www.businessdailyafrica....04/-/gf5pot/-/index.html

This will also deflate domestic money mkt rates bigtime & so you must have season tickets to the...#static#
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hisah
#848 Posted : Monday, May 20, 2013 11:37:31 PM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
S&P says KE could pay a lower rate for its eurobond - www.businessdailyafrica....4/-/mbjupnz/-/index.html

If KE puts up $2 billion as Alykhan suggests, USD positions vs KES would experience a nasty winter. Tbill rates would equally nosedive leaving equities as the main beneficiary. With tbill rates on a nosedive, banks would have to boost lending by cutting their rates. Econ stimulus would flood in and stocks would obviously melt up.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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symbols
#849 Posted : Tuesday, June 25, 2013 6:12:10 PM
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Joined: 3/19/2013
Posts: 2,552
USD KSHS 1:86.15
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mwekez@ji
#850 Posted : Saturday, July 06, 2013 10:03:06 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Kenyan shilling hits four-month low

The Kenyan shilling hit a four-month low on Friday as nervous importers bought dollars, betting that the U.S. currency could strengthen further.

At the 1300 GMT market close, commercial banks quoted the shilling at 86.50/70 per dollar, a level last reached on March 11 and 0.4 percent weaker than Thursday's close of 86.20/30.

The dollar jumped to near a three-year high against other major currencies on Friday after a strong rise in U.S. payrolls in June raised expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon start curtailing its monetary stimulus.

http://www.reuters.com/article/...ts-idUSL5N0FB20M20130705
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hisah
#851 Posted : Tuesday, July 09, 2013 6:18:54 AM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Interbank rate is misbehaving and I don't see CBK being able to push tbill rates below 5%. CBR will likely be left at 8.5%. Also that VAT bill will be an inflation booster and this should check MPC's intentions of lowering the CBR going forward as they keep an eye on KES spiking back to 90. At 88/$ CBK would intervene heavily to stall the $ rise to check off inflation as well as the current account deficit damage.

Quite tricky for now with oil price also spiking. Eurobond is the bazooka needed if things go elephant...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mwekez@ji
#852 Posted : Tuesday, July 09, 2013 9:12:48 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
hisah wrote:
Interbank rate is misbehaving and I don't see CBK being able to push tbill rates below 5%. CBR will likely be left at 8.5%. Also that VAT bill will be an inflation booster and this should check MPC's intentions of lowering the CBR going forward as they keep an eye on KES spiking back to 90. At 88/$ CBK would intervene heavily to stall the $ rise to check off inflation as well as the current account deficit damage.

Quite tricky for now with oil price also spiking. Eurobond is the bazooka needed if things go elephant...


Well said chief. ... ditto.
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#853 Posted : Tuesday, July 09, 2013 10:21:32 AM
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Joined: 9/23/2010
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Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
CBK's MPC meet today. At best,i foresee a holding of cbr at current level!
@SufficientlyP
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mwekez@ji
#854 Posted : Tuesday, July 09, 2013 10:56:04 AM
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
CBK's MPC meet today. At best,i foresee a holding of cbr at current level!


#Event to watch today ;-)
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mwekez@ji
#855 Posted : Tuesday, July 09, 2013 5:32:13 PM
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
CBK's MPC meet today. At best,i foresee a holding of cbr at current level!


Your forecast has been confirmed ;-)

MPC has held cbr rate at 8.5%
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#856 Posted : Tuesday, July 09, 2013 7:48:29 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
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Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
mwekez@ji wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
CBK's MPC meet today. At best,i foresee a holding of cbr at current level!


Your forecast has been confirmed ;-)

MPC has held cbr rate at 8.5%

The dollar strength and the volatility of oil prices halted any further rate slash.
Also saw the tbill rates bottomed out last week.
@SufficientlyP
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mwekez@ji
#857 Posted : Wednesday, July 10, 2013 7:43:00 PM
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Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Rich Today wrote:

The Shilling was last trading at 86.903.

Recent Shilling weakness was in part a consequence of the Price of Crude oil trading at 14 month Highs. I think the Middle Eastern Geopolitical Premium is way too rich in the Price and that The Chance of Egypt-led Contagion is not as high as currently estimated in the Price. So I expect some respite in the Price of Oil and therefore of the Pressure on the Shilling.

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