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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/19/2015 Posts: 2,871 Location: hapo
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Tycho please don't use that Africa is different argument again. This is a virus, it doesn't know about our culture or our poverty. It wants to move from one host to another in order to survive. There is one method that is definately going to work. STOP moving. This achieves two objectives 1. It won't move on to someone else who is more vulnerable 2. It shall die down on its own. All these other stories are just stories. Let us call a spade a spade. It's just an idea. Viruses don't care about ideas. A few years ago it was the african thing to sleep around with 3 women a day. After all, a condom was unafrican and those were not african male values. This here is very simple. You are either going to stop the spread or each and every human being on earth is going to get it. I know that many will survive. But I'm sorry I don't like my odds. So I'd rather not play roulette with my life. So I'll stay home and leave the people who come up with ideas continue doing so. Mimi, just don't shake my hand and yes, I'll wear a mask when I meet you. Thieves are not good people. Tumeelewana?
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/20/2007 Posts: 767
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alma1 wrote:Tycho please don't use that Africa is different argument again.
This is a virus, it doesn't know about our culture or our poverty. It wants to move from one host to another in order to survive.
There is one method that is definately going to work. STOP moving.
This achieves two objectives
1. It won't move on to someone else who is more vulnerable
2. It shall die down on its own.
All these other stories are just stories. Let us call a spade a spade. It's just an idea.
Viruses don't care about ideas.
A few years ago it was the african thing to sleep around with 3 women a day. After all, a condom was unafrican and those were not african male values.
This here is very simple. You are either going to stop the spread or each and every human being on earth is going to get it.
I know that many will survive. But I'm sorry I don't like my odds. So I'd rather not play roulette with my life.
So I'll stay home and leave the people who come up with ideas continue doing so. Mimi, just don't shake my hand and yes, I'll wear a mask when I meet you. You are arguing like a well off Kenyan, with a large enough house to afford you to move around without living your home. As much as you think that is the solution, I am sorry to burst your bubble because it is not. Lockdown / quarantine only works in an enviroment where you are able to test widely and isolate infected cases. We are not able to that. So lockdown is bure kabisa. Disease will appear to go down, only to re imerge post quarantine period. Kama wewe you can manage to stay at home, ni sawa, endelea, but do not interfere with another Kenyans right to feed their children. They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/19/2015 Posts: 2,871 Location: hapo
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tom_boy wrote:alma1 wrote:Tycho please don't use that Africa is different argument again.
This is a virus, it doesn't know about our culture or our poverty. It wants to move from one host to another in order to survive.
There is one method that is definately going to work. STOP moving.
This achieves two objectives
1. It won't move on to someone else who is more vulnerable
2. It shall die down on its own.
All these other stories are just stories. Let us call a spade a spade. It's just an idea.
Viruses don't care about ideas.
A few years ago it was the african thing to sleep around with 3 women a day. After all, a condom was unafrican and those were not african male values.
This here is very simple. You are either going to stop the spread or each and every human being on earth is going to get it.
I know that many will survive. But I'm sorry I don't like my odds. So I'd rather not play roulette with my life.
So I'll stay home and leave the people who come up with ideas continue doing so. Mimi, just don't shake my hand and yes, I'll wear a mask when I meet you. You are arguing like a well off Kenyan, with a large enough house to afford you to move around without living your home. As much as you think that is the solution, I am sorry to burst your bubble because it is not. Lockdown / quarantine only works in an enviroment where you are able to test widely and isolate infected cases. We are not able to that. So lockdown is bure kabisa. Disease will appear to go down, only to re imerge post quarantine period. Kama wewe you can manage to stay at home, ni sawa, endelea, but do not interfere with another Kenyans right to feed their children. I have not told you not to go galavanting around the streets of nairobi coz you feel you are too poor. I don't know you so that's your personal decision. Don't try to make your personal issues a Kenyan issue. It's not. I have just told you it's a virus. It doesn't care. Now tell me and be honest. Is it better for a family in Kibera to lose income for 21 days or have it's bread winner dead forever? If this guy gets the virus, he will still be forced to stay at home for 21 days anyway. Probably give it to his children and his wives and also the children. That's simple math. Sio emotions here. I don't know where my income came from in your shortsighted rant. I just explained what has worked to curb this type of viruses. By the way your opinion is useless to the virus. 21 days of sheer poverty or forever days with no bread winners. Exactly who do you think cares for that poor man you keep on yapping about? Thieves are not good people. Tumeelewana?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/19/2015 Posts: 2,871 Location: hapo
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I'll try another method to make some of us see the light. This is a list of people who thought that their brains were sharper than reality. They all also said that their economies would fail if they didn't do the obvious. Now they have found out that life is not about money. People do survive and will thrive without money. As long as they are alive, they will find a way out of their misery. 1. Boris Johnson - Mr. Herd mentality. It took him to get sick to change his mind. 2. The Swedes - Highest rates of death worldwide. I hear they are still in party mode 3. The Italians - It took Chinese doctors to explain to them the meaning of lockup. Now they know. Even the Pope. 4. The Spaniards - Until 2 weeks ago will also special in the eyes of the virus. They are in lockdown and dying faster every day. 5. Drumpf - He of motivational speaking to the virus telling it that America is the best nation in the world, please go away...Well, ask him now. 6. The Governor of Florida - After weeks of saying how Florida is different has lockdown the whole state just 30 minutes ago. My frens....We have time to avoid lockdowns. Educate people to stay at home if they don't have to go out. Otherwise the next stage is lockdown. And please don't say that poor people can't be in lockdown. The whole of Rwanda is lockdown. This is a virus. Treat it as such and we may just have to deal with it for 2 more weeks. Treat it with these emotional diatribes and we shall be here in December talking about locking up everyone who lives in Kibera. Thieves are not good people. Tumeelewana?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/3/2008 Posts: 4,057 Location: Gwitu
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alma1 wrote:tom_boy wrote:alma1 wrote:Tycho please don't use that Africa is different argument again.
This is a virus, it doesn't know about our culture or our poverty. It wants to move from one host to another in order to survive.
There is one method that is definately going to work. STOP moving.
This achieves two objectives
1. It won't move on to someone else who is more vulnerable
2. It shall die down on its own.
All these other stories are just stories. Let us call a spade a spade. It's just an idea.
Viruses don't care about ideas.
A few years ago it was the african thing to sleep around with 3 women a day. After all, a condom was unafrican and those were not african male values.
This here is very simple. You are either going to stop the spread or each and every human being on earth is going to get it.
I know that many will survive. But I'm sorry I don't like my odds. So I'd rather not play roulette with my life.
So I'll stay home and leave the people who come up with ideas continue doing so. Mimi, just don't shake my hand and yes, I'll wear a mask when I meet you. You are arguing like a well off Kenyan, with a large enough house to afford you to move around without living your home. As much as you think that is the solution, I am sorry to burst your bubble because it is not. Lockdown / quarantine only works in an enviroment where you are able to test widely and isolate infected cases. We are not able to that. So lockdown is bure kabisa. Disease will appear to go down, only to re imerge post quarantine period. Kama wewe you can manage to stay at home, ni sawa, endelea, but do not interfere with another Kenyans right to feed their children. I have not told you not to go galavanting around the streets of nairobi coz you feel you are too poor. I don't know you so that's your personal decision. Don't try to make your personal issues a Kenyan issue. It's not. I have just told you it's a virus. It doesn't care. Now tell me and be honest. Is it better for a family in Kibera to lose income for 21 days or have it's bread winner dead forever? If this guy gets the virus, he will still be forced to stay at home for 21 days anyway. Probably give it to his children and his wives and also the children. That's simple math. Sio emotions here. I don't know where my income came from in your shortsighted rant. I just explained what has worked to curb this type of viruses. By the way your opinion is useless to the virus. 21 days of sheer poverty or forever days with no bread winners. Exactly who do you think cares for that poor man you keep on yapping about? Catching the virus is a probability, dying of hunger could be a certainty Truth forever on the scaffold
Wrong forever on the throne
(James Russell Rowell)
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/1/2011 Posts: 8,804 Location: Nairobi
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Alma. It seems you haven't understood what I am saying, and also you may not appreciate other aspects about this virus. Let me explain in terms of action points
1. Ask your government people to order a mask up and maintain hygiene
2. For all those hot spots- they were 6- let us control movement and let us treat patients, while also engineering a relationship with this virus. My work won't stop anyone from taking meds or using a ventilator. What my work may do is lower recovery time for many. Or free up equipment for more needy cases
3. Let others in non hot spots work and supply those under quarantine/semi lock down, under strictly masked and controlled conditions
4. Our work in the restricted zones will run through it's course, then we can let the virus go into another restricted zone, till we cover the country
5. We repeat the methods iteratively
This has nothing to do with 'Africans are special argument'. It has everything about solving our problems in a way that is sustainable.
This virus is deadly because we are unprepared in terms of infrastructure, and because it is new to our body systems. These two problems can't be resolved with a lockdown.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/19/2015 Posts: 2,871 Location: hapo
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tycho wrote:Alma. It seems you haven't understood what I am saying, and also you may not appreciate other aspects about this virus. Let me explain in terms of action points
1. Ask your government people to order a mask up and maintain hygiene
2. For all those hot spots- they were 6- let us control movement and let us treat patients, while also engineering a relationship with this virus. My work won't stop anyone from taking meds or using a ventilator. What my work may do is lower recovery time for many. Or free up equipment for more needy cases
3. Let others in non hot spots work and supply those under quarantine/semi lock down, under strictly masked and controlled conditions
4. Our work in the restricted zones will run through it's course, then we can let the virus go into another restricted zone, till we cover the country
5. We repeat the methods iteratively
This has nothing to do with 'Africans are special argument'. It has everything about solving our problems in a way that is sustainable.
This virus is deadly because we are unprepared in terms of infrastructure, and because it is new to our body systems. These two problems can't be resolved with a lockdown. I actually agree with you. But let's be honest. A simple curfew and everyone is up in arms. We have to also include realities of Kenyan behavior in your model. Young kenyan boys were seen with their subarus all the way in Kiambu probably spreading this disease plus HIV. I think I understand what the gov't is trying to do here. Get as many people as they can who had contact with the initial cases. They are doing a damn good job at it. They are trying very very hard to avoid a total lock down. But we are Kenyans, we have our own special rules. Tycho, no amount of gov't policy will work unless the people agree to follow the guidelines. You and I both know that. My point is very simple. Rather than waste precious time trying to make this populace understand the danger they are in, lockdown right now. Kenyans never listen until a rungu is right on their faces. I propose that a policeman's rungu will be much easier to handle than 10k infected Kenyans. That will be chaos and you know it. Thieves are not good people. Tumeelewana?
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Rank: Member Joined: 12/21/2009 Posts: 602
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murchr wrote:Dahatre wrote:murchr wrote:Dahatre wrote:mpobiz wrote:Dahatre wrote:f*** this dude! Arrgghh who gave him his Ph.D?? Shindwe!! All he has to do is google the cost of producing a single vaccine ($200-500 million)-Between our poorly managed resources and the thieving, where do we get that kind of money? And this was 2006 costs (certain to be higher now): Assembling a Global Vaccine Development Pipeline for Infectious Diseases in the Developing WorldThe mofo is just shifting blame. Countries with a strong research infrastructure build it with public funds first then support business models to produce therapies... I think this guy is simply saying that complex discoveries and in this case medical discoveries can be made by a PhD and basic lab equipment.like how penicillin was discovered. When a PhD holder produces a credible thesis that is read by other PhD holders and approved. then serious work can begin. He is a governor..right? He can lead the effort by setting aside a budget to establish a lab to do the work. Kenya does not have a shortage of scientists He can lead the way if it is so simple. Here is an excerpt of the article I linked above-- It often takes more than 10 years to deliver a final, licensed vaccine,5 and requires not only excellence during research and product development but also managerial and funding commitment throughout the endeavor. The cost of developing a vaccineβfrom research and discovery to product registrationβis estimated to be between US $200 million and US $500 million per vaccine.6 This figure includes vaccines that are abandoned during the development process. In short, vaccine research and product development is lengthy, complex, and loaded with binary outcome risks."Maybe the western approach of making vaccines is just too expensive/complicated? This is a non issue. I notice the docs in wazua are nowhere I guess they are busy looking for a vaccine. But we need home grown solutions fast! On everything, production of vaccines, PPE, respirators etc Even if a vaccine is discovered in America - The American population will be first before they pick where else they would think of going next. I heard Mutahi say they are planning to import more respirators - From where? America is forcing GM to stop producing cars and produce respirators for their hospitals. Ford is working with GE to produce more respirators also. So who will be sending us these respirators?Mutua is very right, dont just read the heading and run with it listen to what he says The problem we have is unfathomable if we do not get our shit together and stop economic activities that kill local industries-and not just in health care (Not the the responsibility of Scientists) W/r to CV Even if Kenya responds flawlessly, we are still f***ed, in large part because China controls the supply chain for everything, including the drugs that we need to manage patients in ICU's. China will supply Europe and US with ingredients they need to make dawas, tests, masks etc... before they supply us. FYI I listened to the whole clip..and Mutua does not at any point say what he is bringing to the table. He is shifting blame instead of asking scientists what they would need to grow home made solutions--maybe he does not understand how science works. He said most scientist blame funding....and he offered a solution to that. We should stop thinking about supply chains. Ngilu is making masks and other PPE stuff without waiting to be told do it...can someone else take initiative where they can? Murchr wrote: He said most scientist blame funding....and he offered a solution to that. Funding IS important-scientists need to feed themselves and their families, equipment costs money. His solution: βtell us what you needββ¦Talk is cheapβ¦.Letβs see the allocation to health research in Machakos then he can bad-mouth scientists. Murchr wrote: We should stop thinking about supply chains. Ngilu is making masks and other PPE stuff without waiting to be told do it...can someone else take initiative where they can? . Supply chains will matter until we become self-reliant-Upende usipende. I learned the other day that over 80% of the worldβs antibiotics are produced in China and the Lombardi region of Italy (irony of ironies)-until Kenya is producing ingredients for antibiotics we better pay attention to that supply chain and for all other meds for that matter... Mutua has an example in Ngilu. One can do, or one can run their mouth I prefer doers.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 8/10/2010 Posts: 2,264
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tom_boy wrote:alma1 wrote:Tycho please don't use that Africa is different argument again.
This is a virus, it doesn't know about our culture or our poverty. It wants to move from one host to another in order to survive.
There is one method that is definately going to work. STOP moving.
This achieves two objectives
1. It won't move on to someone else who is more vulnerable
2. It shall die down on its own.
All these other stories are just stories. Let us call a spade a spade. It's just an idea.
Viruses don't care about ideas.
A few years ago it was the african thing to sleep around with 3 women a day. After all, a condom was unafrican and those were not african male values.
This here is very simple. You are either going to stop the spread or each and every human being on earth is going to get it.
I know that many will survive. But I'm sorry I don't like my odds. So I'd rather not play roulette with my life.
So I'll stay home and leave the people who come up with ideas continue doing so. Mimi, just don't shake my hand and yes, I'll wear a mask when I meet you. You are arguing like a well off Kenyan, with a large enough house to afford you to move around without living your home. As much as you think that is the solution, I am sorry to burst your bubble because it is not. Lockdown / quarantine only works in an enviroment where you are able to test widely and isolate infected cases. We are not able to that. So lockdown is bure kabisa. Disease will appear to go down, only to re imerge post quarantine period. Kama wewe you can manage to stay at home, ni sawa, endelea, but do not interfere with another Kenyans right to feed their children. This guy is not welloff I think this man needs help wherever he is. He is too scared. This disease is also taking an imotional and mental toll to So many people in the society. Look at what he said alma1 wrote:I will start reading posts on this thread of people with real data.
Up here, numbers are being thrown around with no proof or citation whatsoever. Just scary stuff.
Yes, it kills. But saying the gov't is doing nothing is a blatant lie. Straight from the anals of propaganda. You are right now in a curfew session. So you cannot say, it is not doing anything.
The facts in Kenya.
Corona has killed 1
3 have recovered.
KJ is the one with fake 7k in quarantine.
Real numbers, real figures so that solutions can be discussed.
Otherwise, this is a case of GASLIGHTING. When someone here is of the idea that we are posting here in wazua for his pleasure to read other wazuan posts then there is something terrebly wrong with him mentally. He is constantly misquoting most of the posts here which is worrying. Politics is just things to keep the people divided and foolish and put your trust in men and none of them can do nothing for you...
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/20/2007 Posts: 767
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tycho wrote:mpobiz wrote:tom_boy wrote:The challenge with covid is that the so called working solution is not workable in our situation. Let me illustrate.
Imagine farmer Johnson in Missouri has 100 head of cattle. He hears that there is an outbreak of a disease and that it spreads very fast when cattle go out to pasture. The disease will likely affect all his animals. However, 80 of his cows will suffer mild symptoms, maybe not eat for a day or three, but will eventually recover. 20 of his animals will get seriously ill and of these 5 will likely die unless he has sophisticated equipment and a top notch vetinary on hand, in which case he may only lose 3 cows. The remaining 15 sick cows will require advanced care in a special shed and daily cleaning and vitamins. He will have to hire extra people to take care of his 15 sick cows. To minimise the damage to his heard, he has the option of not taking them out to pasture. But then, what will they eat. If they do not eat for 21 days, he will have no herd to talk about. In steps his Govt. Since this is a cattle pandemic, the govt has realised that it has to support the farmers. It advices them to keep their animals in the shed. Meanwhile , the govt will supply hay from the strategic hay reserve to feed the cows for as long as they need to remain in the shed.
Now, contrast this with farmer Githinji in Ngecha. He has 100 cows that he pastures. The disease in Missouri has now reached Ngecha. Everyone is scared for their cattle. He has the option of keeping them in the shed but for how long? Nobody knows! There is talk that the disease could drag on for months. He has heard that giving extra vitamins can be protective but he is not sure. His govt has no strategic hay reserves though it is advicing him to keep his animals in the shed. If he takes them to pasture, he may lose 5 animals, have 15 very sick cows that he will need to take extra care not to lose. However, 80 of his cows will likely survive after a few days of showing symptoms. He can scramble his savings and hire extra help to take care of the 15 sick cows. He has never heard in his locality of a vet who can take care of the 5 very sick cows. He would have to import the vet and the required equipment and in any case, such vets and equipment are already in short supply. He cannot afford them anyway.
How would you advice Farmer Githinji? Should he quarantine his animals and likely lose them to starvation and pneumonia and worms? Shoulld he inject the vitamins and say a prayer, send them off to pasture while preparing a special place for the 15 sick animals that he can atleast try handle on the farm? Should he start looking for a loan and look for the special vet and equipment to handle the 5 cows that get very sick and of which he can only save 2?
Herd immunity is the only way for our fragile African health systems and economies. Send all animals to pasture and prepare for the 15% fatalities. It's already a disaster . Let whoever who is willing to work or party do it while taking precautions. What I am proposing may be much safer. Freeze the virus, lower its energy level, usher it through the population. Wait for it to raise itself again, usher it again like we can do now. Then again and again. Till it habituates at an equilibrium. Then watch it over time. As I said, very few need to die from this virus. And the data that alma is insisting on also supports the ideas that some countries have very little fatalities! Why not us, and we can do it? @tycho, your idea is sexy but it is predicated on one very fatal flaw. It assumes that other regions do not have the virus already. Remember we do not have capability to do wide scale testing. So even those so called hotspots are just the known hotspots. Without testing, we do not know the situation in Nakuru, Eldoret, Kisumu, to name a few. Countries like Germany that have shown low mortality have done widescale testing on even asymptomatic guys thus the high denominator for a relatively small numerator of deaths, thus a low death rate. Overall data puts covid mortality at less than 2% of those infected. More than 50% suffer such minor symptoms, they do not seek treatment. The major problem of those advocating for Lockdown is that they have enough to eat and are driven by fear rather than rational thought. On a population wide basis, a disease with under 2% mortality can cause alot of deaths numerically if a large population is affected but statistically the risk of death to a single individual is pretty low. But ofcourse humans are risk averse creatures and psychologically the thought of loss is more painful than the pleasure of gain. Thus, people like @alma have had their brains frozen by the thought of 2% chance of dying that they do not see the 100% chance of people going hungry in the event of a lockdown. They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/1/2011 Posts: 8,804 Location: Nairobi
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I have alerted you wazuans and the government, that there exists a sound body of knowledge that can be used to make the lives of ordinary Kenyans better during this time.
I do not support the lockdown that the government and some of us here seem so intent to have. But I can warn you that things won't be as easy as you think. These lockdowns have no success story, or any convincing evidence that they are worth following. China and the lockdown countries have to wait for a vaccine before going back to normal life. We expect a vaccine next year, for them first, then we can follow.
I also know that some African governments are likely to collapse in the event of social unrest, and Kenya may be one of them. Given the slowness to agree even with a curfew that has rendered many jobless and hungry, I don't expect a 3 week lockdown to last peacefully, and allow for effective virus control. Chaos will break lose and how will we cool things down?
It will be very irresponsible of us to take, or even contemplate such a path. I hope this day shall be remembered well enough: the day we decided to be fools and plunge into an abyss, despite all warning and advice.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/1/2011 Posts: 8,804 Location: Nairobi
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tom_boy wrote:tycho wrote:mpobiz wrote:tom_boy wrote:The challenge with covid is that the so called working solution is not workable in our situation. Let me illustrate.
Imagine farmer Johnson in Missouri has 100 head of cattle. He hears that there is an outbreak of a disease and that it spreads very fast when cattle go out to pasture. The disease will likely affect all his animals. However, 80 of his cows will suffer mild symptoms, maybe not eat for a day or three, but will eventually recover. 20 of his animals will get seriously ill and of these 5 will likely die unless he has sophisticated equipment and a top notch vetinary on hand, in which case he may only lose 3 cows. The remaining 15 sick cows will require advanced care in a special shed and daily cleaning and vitamins. He will have to hire extra people to take care of his 15 sick cows. To minimise the damage to his heard, he has the option of not taking them out to pasture. But then, what will they eat. If they do not eat for 21 days, he will have no herd to talk about. In steps his Govt. Since this is a cattle pandemic, the govt has realised that it has to support the farmers. It advices them to keep their animals in the shed. Meanwhile , the govt will supply hay from the strategic hay reserve to feed the cows for as long as they need to remain in the shed.
Now, contrast this with farmer Githinji in Ngecha. He has 100 cows that he pastures. The disease in Missouri has now reached Ngecha. Everyone is scared for their cattle. He has the option of keeping them in the shed but for how long? Nobody knows! There is talk that the disease could drag on for months. He has heard that giving extra vitamins can be protective but he is not sure. His govt has no strategic hay reserves though it is advicing him to keep his animals in the shed. If he takes them to pasture, he may lose 5 animals, have 15 very sick cows that he will need to take extra care not to lose. However, 80 of his cows will likely survive after a few days of showing symptoms. He can scramble his savings and hire extra help to take care of the 15 sick cows. He has never heard in his locality of a vet who can take care of the 5 very sick cows. He would have to import the vet and the required equipment and in any case, such vets and equipment are already in short supply. He cannot afford them anyway.
How would you advice Farmer Githinji? Should he quarantine his animals and likely lose them to starvation and pneumonia and worms? Shoulld he inject the vitamins and say a prayer, send them off to pasture while preparing a special place for the 15 sick animals that he can atleast try handle on the farm? Should he start looking for a loan and look for the special vet and equipment to handle the 5 cows that get very sick and of which he can only save 2?
Herd immunity is the only way for our fragile African health systems and economies. Send all animals to pasture and prepare for the 15% fatalities. It's already a disaster . Let whoever who is willing to work or party do it while taking precautions. What I am proposing may be much safer. Freeze the virus, lower its energy level, usher it through the population. Wait for it to raise itself again, usher it again like we can do now. Then again and again. Till it habituates at an equilibrium. Then watch it over time. As I said, very few need to die from this virus. And the data that alma is insisting on also supports the ideas that some countries have very little fatalities! Why not us, and we can do it? @tycho, your idea is sexy but it is predicated on one very fatal flaw. It assumes that other regions do not have the virus already. Remember we do not have capability to do wide scale testing. So even those so called hotspots are just the known hotspots. Without testing, we do not know the situation in Nakuru, Eldoret, Kisumu, to name a few. Countries like Germany that have shown low mortality have done widescale testing on even asymptomatic guys thus the high denominator for a relatively small numerator of deaths, thus a low death rate. Overall data puts covid mortality at less than 2% of those infected. More than 50% suffer such minor symptoms, they do not seek treatment. The major problem of those advocating for Lockdown is that they have enough to eat and are driven by fear rather than rational thought. On a population wide basis, a disease with under 2% mortality can cause alot of deaths numerically if a large population is affected but statistically the risk of death to a single individual is pretty low. But ofcourse humans are risk averse creatures and psychologically the thought of loss is more painful than the pleasure of gain. Thus, people like @alma have had their brains frozen by the thought of 2% chance of dying that they do not see the 100% chance of people going hungry in the event of a lockdown. It's true that we don't know the spread. But all the same, we know that there are measures that will cut the spread. And that's what we should work with. I wanted @alma to see that I have no problem with a partial lockdown for operational or investigative purpose.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/19/2015 Posts: 2,871 Location: hapo
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tycho wrote:tom_boy wrote:tycho wrote:mpobiz wrote:tom_boy wrote:The challenge with covid is that the so called working solution is not workable in our situation. Let me illustrate.
Imagine farmer Johnson in Missouri has 100 head of cattle. He hears that there is an outbreak of a disease and that it spreads very fast when cattle go out to pasture. The disease will likely affect all his animals. However, 80 of his cows will suffer mild symptoms, maybe not eat for a day or three, but will eventually recover. 20 of his animals will get seriously ill and of these 5 will likely die unless he has sophisticated equipment and a top notch vetinary on hand, in which case he may only lose 3 cows. The remaining 15 sick cows will require advanced care in a special shed and daily cleaning and vitamins. He will have to hire extra people to take care of his 15 sick cows. To minimise the damage to his heard, he has the option of not taking them out to pasture. But then, what will they eat. If they do not eat for 21 days, he will have no herd to talk about. In steps his Govt. Since this is a cattle pandemic, the govt has realised that it has to support the farmers. It advices them to keep their animals in the shed. Meanwhile , the govt will supply hay from the strategic hay reserve to feed the cows for as long as they need to remain in the shed.
Now, contrast this with farmer Githinji in Ngecha. He has 100 cows that he pastures. The disease in Missouri has now reached Ngecha. Everyone is scared for their cattle. He has the option of keeping them in the shed but for how long? Nobody knows! There is talk that the disease could drag on for months. He has heard that giving extra vitamins can be protective but he is not sure. His govt has no strategic hay reserves though it is advicing him to keep his animals in the shed. If he takes them to pasture, he may lose 5 animals, have 15 very sick cows that he will need to take extra care not to lose. However, 80 of his cows will likely survive after a few days of showing symptoms. He can scramble his savings and hire extra help to take care of the 15 sick cows. He has never heard in his locality of a vet who can take care of the 5 very sick cows. He would have to import the vet and the required equipment and in any case, such vets and equipment are already in short supply. He cannot afford them anyway.
How would you advice Farmer Githinji? Should he quarantine his animals and likely lose them to starvation and pneumonia and worms? Shoulld he inject the vitamins and say a prayer, send them off to pasture while preparing a special place for the 15 sick animals that he can atleast try handle on the farm? Should he start looking for a loan and look for the special vet and equipment to handle the 5 cows that get very sick and of which he can only save 2?
Herd immunity is the only way for our fragile African health systems and economies. Send all animals to pasture and prepare for the 15% fatalities. It's already a disaster . Let whoever who is willing to work or party do it while taking precautions. What I am proposing may be much safer. Freeze the virus, lower its energy level, usher it through the population. Wait for it to raise itself again, usher it again like we can do now. Then again and again. Till it habituates at an equilibrium. Then watch it over time. As I said, very few need to die from this virus. And the data that alma is insisting on also supports the ideas that some countries have very little fatalities! Why not us, and we can do it? @tycho, your idea is sexy but it is predicated on one very fatal flaw. It assumes that other regions do not have the virus already. Remember we do not have capability to do wide scale testing. So even those so called hotspots are just the known hotspots. Without testing, we do not know the situation in Nakuru, Eldoret, Kisumu, to name a few. Countries like Germany that have shown low mortality have done widescale testing on even asymptomatic guys thus the high denominator for a relatively small numerator of deaths, thus a low death rate. Overall data puts covid mortality at less than 2% of those infected. More than 50% suffer such minor symptoms, they do not seek treatment. The major problem of those advocating for Lockdown is that they have enough to eat and are driven by fear rather than rational thought. On a population wide basis, a disease with under 2% mortality can cause alot of deaths numerically if a large population is affected but statistically the risk of death to a single individual is pretty low. But ofcourse humans are risk averse creatures and psychologically the thought of loss is more painful than the pleasure of gain. Thus, people like @alma have had their brains frozen by the thought of 2% chance of dying that they do not see the 100% chance of people going hungry in the event of a lockdown. It's true that we don't know the spread. But all the same, we know that there are measures that will cut the spread. And that's what we should work with. I wanted @alma to see that I have no problem with a partial lockdown for operational or investigative purpose. Tycho, I tend to be more pragmatic. When this thread started, everyone had this interesting ideas. In the meatime, wuhan was locked down. We called it undemocratic. Singapore and South Korea went into deep public health overdrive. Test, catch isolate as quickly as possible. Hong Kong the same. In the meantime the rest of the world is still discussing. Those places are getting back to normal. Some like Singapore have forgotten they even have the virus. The population understood and worked with the gov't. You have been shown how to deal with it. however, now 2 months later, every day we spend equivocating is a day lost. And a day we can't get back. The numbers in Kenya are climbing and climbing fast. Boda boda guys are still not using ppe's. People are still going to tao to look for a job, yet businesses are closed. Others are going to shags. It is not time for wise sayings or ideas. Lock down now for a shorter period or lock down later for a longer more painful and tearful period. Unless this virus suddenly vanishes next week, bado hatujajua. And please when someone says that it only kills 2%, let them also volunteer to be among the 800k who might die. Number look nice until you put a face on it. This is simple. Kenyans must follow the current gov't guidelines. Or Wait for the inevitable lockdown Or Wait for a vaccine But pain is inevitable. Take the pill now or later. Thieves are not good people. Tumeelewana?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 8/10/2010 Posts: 2,264
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tycho wrote:I have alerted you wazuans and the government, that there exists a sound body of knowledge that can be used to make the lives of ordinary Kenyans better during this time.
I do not support the lockdown that the government and some of us here seem so intent to have. But I can warn you that things won't be as easy as you think. These lockdowns have no success story, or any convincing evidence that they are worth following. China and the lockdown countries have to wait for a vaccine before going back to normal life. We expect a vaccine next year, for them first, then we can follow.
I also know that some African governments are likely to collapse in the event of social unrest, and Kenya may be one of them. Given the slowness to agree even with a curfew that has rendered many jobless and hungry, I don't expect a 3 week lockdown to last peacefully, and allow for effective virus control. Chaos will break lose and how will we cool things down?
It will be very irresponsible of us to take, or even contemplate such a path. I hope this day shall be remembered well enough: the day we decided to be fools and plunge into an abyss, despite all warning and advice.
The government is on high gear preaching to us that this thing is treatable and some people here still think that a total lockdown is possible without social repercussions worse than the virus? More than 70% of Nairobiand live on hand to mouth. Hanger pangs hit within 12 hrs. That's a small detail for whomever will order a lockdown. Politics is just things to keep the people divided and foolish and put your trust in men and none of them can do nothing for you...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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US deaths +1000 in 24hrs "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/8/2013 Posts: 4,068 Location: At Large.
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murchr wrote:US deaths +1000 in 24hrs  π₯π₯ Love is beautiful and so are those who share it.With Love, Marriage is an amazing event in ones life time, the foundation of joy, happiness and success.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,602
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Bigchick wrote:murchr wrote:US deaths +1000 in 24hrs π₯π₯ Remember when I told you to expect 1000 deaths a day and you said I was prophet of doom. Pandemics must run their full course. It's like a boil it has to ripen before you can lance it.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/8/2013 Posts: 4,068 Location: At Large.
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wukan wrote:Bigchick wrote:murchr wrote:US deaths +1000 in 24hrs π₯π₯ Remember when I told you to expect 1000 deaths a day and you said I was prophet of doom. Pandemics must run their full course. It's like a boil it has to ripen before you can lance it. Wooi!Am shaken. Now I believe you and your ex. I pray we dont get there in π°πͺ.(You doomsday prophetπ₯) Love is beautiful and so are those who share it.With Love, Marriage is an amazing event in ones life time, the foundation of joy, happiness and success.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/1/2011 Posts: 8,804 Location: Nairobi
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If you can, make masks, distribute and educate users on its importance. Encourage the people to wear them. Talking here, as if hii ni bunge ingine ya maana, won't help. @AA, your mask material si mbaya sana. One mask from one 'breast'  can be distributed at 20/-. So I hope I can inspire many people to get them Otherwise, we have wasted a week.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,910
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Based on what is happening in Italy, Spain and US, China lied big time on their total death figures. In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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