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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Aguytrying
#401 Posted : Saturday, May 23, 2015 6:55:32 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
murchr wrote:
mnandii wrote:
winmak wrote:
Out of curiosity, Mnandii, do you own any shares in NSE? Your pessimism of this market is as devoted as the thorough analysis of the same...


I sold my holdings. The thing is, Elliott Wave is an objective approach to analysing a market. If there was short selling existent in the NSE I'd be happy to sell. Imagine my call for NSE to drop below 4900 when it was still at about 5100? Today the target has been met. That is a 200 point move! smile

I concentrate more on forex now.


The index is down mainly due to the profit taking on Safcom. Once that is taken care of the wave will def show an upward trend.

If you can, please generate last year's chart. Esp from Mar 2014


At first I also thought it was a correction. but some signs of a bear started popping up.

safaricom price dipping after announcing record +30% profits and dividend.

foreigners being on sell side the whole of this year .

HFCK and NIC trading close and below rights issue price! despite stellar results.

barclays trading at 15.00, find out the last time that happened

NMG threatening to go below 200. in the last bear it was at 150.

ARM sinking to 74. This is the darling of NSE previously flirting with 90. A Broker even gave a buy recommendation to 150 recently.

the spike of the kshs. remember that was there in 2011 too.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
mnandii
#402 Posted : Saturday, May 23, 2015 9:23:01 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Quote:
The “million dollars” that a wealthy investor might have thought he had in his bond portfolio or at a stock’s peak value can quite rapidly become $50,000 or $5000 or $50. The rest of it just disappears. You see, he never really had a million dollars; all he had was IOUs or stock certificates. The idea that it had a certain financial value was in his head and the heads of others who agreed. When the point of agreement changed, so did the value. Poof! Gone in a flash of aggregated neurons.

Conquer the Crash, third edition



Read more: http://www.elliottwave.c...rchives/2015/05/22/Poof!-How-Stock-Market-Gains-Can-Rapidly-Evaporate.aspx#ixzz3awM3bDud
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Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#403 Posted : Saturday, May 23, 2015 9:26:11 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
winmak wrote:
Sometimes I think these policy makers don't care what their actions have on stability of the market


Aaaah..

Their actions have no effect on the stability of the market!
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#404 Posted : Saturday, May 23, 2015 9:34:53 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
mkonomtupu wrote:
@growing what you are seeing above is the intermediate and minor wave. Its a wave within a wave (yaani unaona mawimbi na tsunami yaja). If you go Post#1 in this thread you will see the Cycle wave(yaani tsunami) represented by upper case Roman numerals(I, II, III,IV,V, a,b,c) where I-V are the basic 5 wave impulse sequence(tukienda juu) and a,b,c is the 3 wave corrective sequence(tukirudi chini). What @mnandii is telling you we are about to hit wave c corrective sequence.


smile smile

Nice to find a fellow Elliottician in wazua!
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
winmak
#405 Posted : Saturday, May 23, 2015 3:57:30 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 12/1/2007
Posts: 539
Location: Nakuru
mnandii wrote:
winmak wrote:
Sometimes I think these policy makers don't care what their actions have on stability of the market


Aaaah..

Their actions have no effect on the stability of the market!



Imposing CGT in a predicted bear year contributes to the instability...
For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases ~ WB
murchr
#406 Posted : Saturday, May 23, 2015 5:02:16 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Aguytrying wrote:
murchr wrote:
mnandii wrote:
winmak wrote:
Out of curiosity, Mnandii, do you own any shares in NSE? Your pessimism of this market is as devoted as the thorough analysis of the same...


I sold my holdings. The thing is, Elliott Wave is an objective approach to analysing a market. If there was short selling existent in the NSE I'd be happy to sell. Imagine my call for NSE to drop below 4900 when it was still at about 5100? Today the target has been met. That is a 200 point move! smile

I concentrate more on forex now.


The index is down mainly due to the profit taking on Safcom. Once that is taken care of the wave will def show an upward trend.

If you can, please generate last year's chart. Esp from Mar 2014


At first I also thought it was a correction. but some signs of a bear started popping up.

safaricom price dipping after announcing record +30% profits and dividend. This was expected here on wazua, we all knew the mad rally was guys buying the rumor waiting to peddle the news. That 30+% profit was already factored in the price at 17.9

foreigners being on sell side the whole of this year. Foreigners are seeing better opportunities in NG after elections, after they make their money there they will definitely come back

HFCK and NIC trading close and below rights issue price! despite stellar results. Speculators are causing this, i've seen this before and its exaggerated by low trade volumes. A buy for me

barclays trading at 15.00, find out the last time that happened This counter's 52 wk high is 18.xy, hii ni correction tu

NMG threatening to go below 200. in the last bear it was at 150. It will, investors dont have confidence on the business books closure was yesterday

ARM sinking to 74. This is the darling of NSE previously flirting with 90. A Broker even gave a buy recommendation to 150 recently. This one even at 70 its overvalued

the spike of the kshs. remember that was there in 2011 too. The shilling will continue to lose value against the dollar for quite a while until we change our import quotas. Obama land economy is on fire..So far i dont see anything stopping that


These are just my opinions and they may not hold water. But we saw this happen in 2013 if we're analyzing behaviors

#423 Posted : Saturday, May 11, 2013 7:20:10 AM

Cde Monomotapa wrote:
SittingPretty wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
We are heading for a bear run which is starting

Scom broke from the pack. Let it carry its own cross Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly though some weakness is being observed else where too. Next week will be interesting.

I like the 'personification' of the counter!

smile


http://wazua.co.ke/forum...sts&t=21259&p=22
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
mulla
#407 Posted : Saturday, May 23, 2015 5:26:47 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/15/2013
Posts: 301
enyands wrote:
mnandii wrote:
winmak wrote:
Out of curiosity, Mnandii, do you own any shares in NovYour pessimism of this market is as devoted as the thorough analysis of the same...


I sold my holdings. The thing is, Elliott Wave is an objective approach to analysing a market. If there was short selling existent in the NSE I'd be happy to sell. Imagine my call for NSE to drop below 4900 when it was still at about 5100? Today the target has been met. That is a 200 point move! smile

I concentrate more on forex now.



When will this bear pass mnadii . Do you have an approximate time when it will be over


@enyands....Looks like you are newbie in stock trading..we are no where near a bear...in a bear market prices will be half what they are now...the social mood will be so depressive even most of those saying they can't wait for the bear to start buying will stay out...when the bear is here no one will be talking stocks...lakini waerevu and strong at mind and heart will take positions because it will be a long time before the chickens come home to roost.
enyands
#408 Posted : Sunday, May 24, 2015 6:21:50 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,301
Location: kenya
mulla wrote:
enyands wrote:
mnandii wrote:
winmak wrote:
Out of curiosity, Mnandii, do you own any shares in NovYour pessimism of this market is as devoted as the thorough analysis of the same...


I sold my holdings. The thing is, Elliott Wave is an objective approach to analysing a market. If there was short selling existent in the NSE I'd be happy to sell. Imagine my call for NSE to drop below 4900 when it was still at about 5100? Today the target has been met. That is a 200 point move! smile

I concentrate more on forex now.



When will this bear pass mnadii . Do you have an approximate time when it will be over


@enyands....Looks like you are newbie in stock trading..we are no where near a bear...in a bear market prices will be half what they are now...the social mood will be so depressive even most of those saying they can't wait for the bear to start buying will stay out...when the bear is here no one will be talking stocks...lakini waerevu and strong at mind and heart will take positions because it will be a long time before the chickens come home to roost.


@mulla I agree I'm newbie . I believe and more less if someone has something to say , they don't necessarily mean to mislead. I do ask questions to seek reasons. In tthis case with well displayed graphs iv never seen before and well analysis prompts me to believe . I need people like you to question my reason to believe and show me otherwise . For now I'm in between @munadii and @mulla. The real juror is out there I believe
obiero
#409 Posted : Sunday, May 24, 2015 9:30:47 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,211
Location: nairobi
stock prices follow performance and right now going by results being released, most firms are not well.. esp manufacturing, tourism, real estate

KQ ABP 4.26
mnandii
#410 Posted : Monday, May 25, 2015 7:43:43 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
obiero wrote:
stock prices follow performance and right now going by results being released, most firms are not well.. esp manufacturing, tourism, real estate


It will be clear quite soon. Performance, financial or otherwise, follow the stock market which is a register of man's productive capacity.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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