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The KenolKobil 2015 pendulum
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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mlennyma wrote:Realtreaty wrote:KK closes their books. Time to look for more. Next year results scheduled to come early March and decision to build the tower will rise again after August General Elections. let's see whether this books have any effect tomorrow .spikes dreams of 8bob You can see a galaxy of reds today. It will drown give it time. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Spikes wrote:mlennyma wrote:Realtreaty wrote:KK closes their books. Time to look for more. Next year results scheduled to come early March and decision to build the tower will rise again after August General Elections. let's see whether this books have any effect tomorrow .spikes dreams of 8bob You can see a galaxy of reds today. It will drown give it time. I have been smelling sub 10 since the resistance at 11 The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
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Aguytrying wrote:Spikes wrote:mlennyma wrote:Realtreaty wrote:KK closes their books. Time to look for more. Next year results scheduled to come early March and decision to build the tower will rise again after August General Elections. let's see whether this books have any effect tomorrow .spikes dreams of 8bob You can see a galaxy of reds today. It will drown give it time. I have been smelling sub 10 since the resistance at 11 @Aguy, That will be very juicy for KK. Let's see how it behaves tomorrow. Me thinks we will have a minor dip followed by price recovery to circa 11
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/16/2014 Posts: 114
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Security KenolKobil 11/Mar/16 price 10.65 18/Mar/16 price11.40 Weekly Change 7.04% Trailing PAT (KES Mn) 2,014 Trailing P/E 8.33 DPS 0.35 Yield 3.07% Commentary Impressive 85 percent rise in profit after tax to KES 2.01 billion. This is one of the best ever performances for KenolKobil. Share price has been on a steady appreciation KenolKobil The is currently trading at 3 year company curve. highs. is also expected to be debt free by June 2016. source SBG securities just looking at my old emails and something caught my attention the last bit that KK will be debt free. could it mean that suitors will now have no problems with uncles ( read, banks and other creditors) and she may be mature enough to leave her mothers house ( read, NSE)? just wondering. fear makes people live a miserable life.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,141 Location: Nairobi
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The rise in oil prices from $30 to $50 may mean it will take KK longer to become debt-free. Furthermore, KK has started participating in OTS tenders so KK will have to take on debt to bring in cargoes. That said, the overall debt should reduce as a % of assets. I would say 'debt-free' is more likely towards Dec 2016 than June 2016. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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VituVingiSana wrote:The rise in oil prices from $30 to $50 may mean it will take KK longer to become debt-free. Furthermore, KK has started participating in OTS tenders so KK will have to take on debt to bring in cargoes.
That said, the overall debt should reduce as a % of assets. I would say 'debt-free' is more likely towards Dec 2016 than June 2016. Global oil price is so stochastic making it difficult to know when to declare KK debt free . As the things stand 8/- is the downtrend limit! John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,141 Location: Nairobi
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Spikes wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:The rise in oil prices from $30 to $50 may mean it will take KK longer to become debt-free. Furthermore, KK has started participating in OTS tenders so KK will have to take on debt to bring in cargoes.
That said, the overall debt should reduce as a % of assets. I would say 'debt-free' is more likely towards Dec 2016 than June 2016. Global oil price is so stochastic making it difficult to know when to declare KK debt free . As the things stand 8/- is the downtrend limit! I would happily buy at 8/- (debt-free or not) coz the margins are somewhat protected thanks to ERC. Ohana said they don't 'gamble' on price trends i.e. they are not hoarding/storing fuel for sale. Of course, this means when prices rise, KK doesn't make out-sized gains [this means KK may even lose money at times] but nor do they lose money when prices fall. Overall, I am confident KK will do well in 2016. I estimate 1.15 for 1H thanks to outsized margins in 1Q. Then 85 cents [ceteris paribus] in 2H for 2/- for FY 2016. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,185 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:The rise in oil prices from $30 to $50 may mean it will take KK longer to become debt-free. Furthermore, KK has started participating in OTS tenders so KK will have to take on debt to bring in cargoes.
That said, the overall debt should reduce as a % of assets. I would say 'debt-free' is more likely towards Dec 2016 than June 2016. how comes the OTS has now become high margin business for kk again or they didn't have money before "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,141 Location: Nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:The rise in oil prices from $30 to $50 may mean it will take KK longer to become debt-free. Furthermore, KK has started participating in OTS tenders so KK will have to take on debt to bring in cargoes.
That said, the overall debt should reduce as a % of assets. I would say 'debt-free' is more likely towards Dec 2016 than June 2016. how comes the OTS has now become high margin business for kk again or they didn't have money before It is a LOW MARGIN business but HUGE volumes with guaranteed sales/payments. One can and should only do it if one has access to CHEAP financing and good buying/pricing power. KK has connections with the large traders. KK has access to (cheap) financing. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 8/16/2011 Posts: 2,319
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 Tunakunywa mafuta wapi?? Kenol-Kobil The equation is balanced!!!!
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/30/2016 Posts: 332 Location: Kayole
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The big boys are back. Huge trades taking place KEGN, KPLC, KQ, SCOM
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,185 Location: nairobi
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mkate_nusu wrote:The big boys are back. Huge trades taking place well calculated not to make any price change "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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mlennyma wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:The big boys are back. Huge trades taking place well calculated not to make any price change It will be sad when this company is sold. But the prospects of getting that windfall during a bear market is mouth watering The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,141 Location: Nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:The big boys are back. Huge trades taking place well calculated not to make any price change It will be sad when this company is sold. But the prospects of getting that windfall during a bear market is mouth watering  [Though I think it will happen in 2018 coz the election is a damp squib after PEV2008 and buyers would rather wait to see if we will destroy our country first] Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:The big boys are back. Huge trades taking place well calculated not to make any price change It will be sad when this company is sold. But the prospects of getting that windfall during a bear market is mouth watering [Though I think it will happen in 2018 coz the election is a damp squib after PEV2008 and buyers would rather wait to see if we will destroy our country first] In that case she will go for a premium. If KK is churning an eps of 2.00 now. The valuation should have caught up with the performance and intrinsic value then. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,141 Location: Nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:The big boys are back. Huge trades taking place well calculated not to make any price change It will be sad when this company is sold. But the prospects of getting that windfall during a bear market is mouth watering [Though I think it will happen in 2018 coz the election is a damp squib after PEV2008 and buyers would rather wait to see if we will destroy our country first] In that case she will go for a premium. If KK is churning an eps of 2.00 now. The valuation should have caught up with the performance and intrinsic value then. I don't want to make the error I made earlier but 20+ sounds plausible in 2018 as profitability increases. I have estimated 2/- for FY 2016 ceteris paribus. *BTW, with oil at $50, I don't think Ohana's prediction of zero debt will happen by June 2016. With OTS cargoes and $50 oil the debt may be reduced but not eliminated even at Dec 2016.* Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:The big boys are back. Huge trades taking place well calculated not to make any price change It will be sad when this company is sold. But the prospects of getting that windfall during a bear market is mouth watering [Though I think it will happen in 2018 coz the election is a damp squib after PEV2008 and buyers would rather wait to see if we will destroy our country first] In that case she will go for a premium. If KK is churning an eps of 2.00 now. The valuation should have caught up with the performance and intrinsic value then. I don't want to make the error I made earlier but 20+ sounds plausible in 2018 as profitability increases. I have estimated 2/- for FY 2016 ceteris paribus. *BTW, with oil at $50, I don't think Ohana's prediction of zero debt will happen by June 2016. With OTS cargoes and $50 oil the debt may be reduced but not eliminated even at Dec 2016.* As long as he's at the helm I sleep easy The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,141 Location: Nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:The big boys are back. Huge trades taking place well calculated not to make any price change It will be sad when this company is sold. But the prospects of getting that windfall during a bear market is mouth watering [Though I think it will happen in 2018 coz the election is a damp squib after PEV2008 and buyers would rather wait to see if we will destroy our country first] In that case she will go for a premium. If KK is churning an eps of 2.00 now. The valuation should have caught up with the performance and intrinsic value then. I don't want to make the error I made earlier but 20+ sounds plausible in 2018 as profitability increases. I have estimated 2/- for FY 2016 ceteris paribus. *BTW, with oil at $50, I don't think Ohana's prediction of zero debt will happen by June 2016. With OTS cargoes and $50 oil the debt may be reduced but not eliminated even at Dec 2016.* As long as he's at the helm I sleep easy ex-IDF = Israel Defense Forces Google Iron Dome. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
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Waiting for 8 bob to load up some more might turn out to be a pipe dream.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,185 Location: nairobi
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whiteowl wrote:Waiting for 8 bob to load up some more might turn out to be a pipe dream. The most threatening factor is political violence going forward "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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