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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20

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mnandii		#391 Posted : Friday, May 22, 2015 5:45:35 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304		hisah wrote: The moment 4700 support level gives up I expect the newbies to completely disappear from the investor forum. The 4yr wedge breakdown is a serious warning that downside pressure is going to be nasty. NSE index is negative 3.61% as per yesterday's close (4932) from the year open (5117). USDKES is negative 6.6% from year open (90.55) as per today's price (96.55). KES breakdown is ahead of market downside pressure! Bad signal. Meaning foreign investors are facing forex losses which are now starting to pile up with equity losses. This is forcing hands to start cutting losses or hasten profit booking. Caution here for those that are still bullish. The econ growth feedback is not encouraging as well as those earnings warnings confirm the same. This is all happening before inflation becomes a headache! Is KE soon to face stagflation? Probably. That would be worse than dealing with inflation spike. If stagflation presents itself, the market will deflate for quite some time e.g. a year or two! I'm putting this extreme outlook so that those willing to remain during the stormy period ensure that they don't buy too soon. Buy window should be open for a year or two. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii		#392 Posted : Friday, May 22, 2015 5:54:31 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304		mnandii wrote: The bear is at hand guys. Unfortunately many will not 'see' it come until they are consumed by it! Assuming wave (4) is complete (evidence suggests it is ) then we can target the termination of wave (5). Options: a) Wave (5) being equal to wave (1) then wave (5) terminates at (5100.51-185.8) = 4914.71 b) Wave (5) being Fibonacci 0.618 of wave (1) then wave (5) target is [5100.51-(0.618 X 185.8)] = 4985.69 c) Wave (5) being Fibonacci 1.618 of wave (1) then wave (5) target is [5100.51-(1.618 X 185.8)] = 4799.89 The c option is more likely. I expect lots of volatility starting tomorrow 11th May. In that case an elongated wave (5) would make sense. Also, as I have been saying for sometime, I want a clean break of the NSE 20 Index below 4907 level to increase odds of the bear to almost certainity. Option c would make ensure of that. Summary: Expect huge volatility starting tomorrow 11th May. Watch of 4907 level. Re-evaluate your share holdings in the NSE. The NSE 20 Share Index closes at 4879.95 May, 22nd, And well below our cited previous fourth wave (4907) level. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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winmak		#393 Posted : Friday, May 22, 2015 6:18:53 PM
Rank: Member Joined: 12/1/2007 Posts: 539 Location: Nakuru		Out of curiosity, Mnandii, do you own any shares in NSE? Your pessimism of this market is as devoted as the thorough analysis of the same... For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases ~ WB
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mnandii		#394 Posted : Friday, May 22, 2015 6:28:44 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304		winmak wrote: Out of curiosity, Mnandii, do you own any shares in NSE? Your pessimism of this market is as devoted as the thorough analysis of the same... I sold my holdings. The thing is, Elliott Wave is an objective approach to analysing a market. If there was short selling existent in the NSE I'd be happy to sell. Imagine my call for NSE to drop below 4900 when it was still at about 5100? Today the target has been met. That is a 200 point move! I concentrate more on forex now. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Museveni		#395 Posted : Friday, May 22, 2015 6:34:26 PM
Rank: Member Joined: 8/16/2012 Posts: 661		winmak wrote: Out of curiosity, Mnandii, do you own any shares in NSE? Your pessimism of this market is as devoted as the thorough analysis of the same... Not pessimism. This is just a concious 'early warning system' when the upward trend is too sweet as most make money & newbies relish the 'easy cash' Live and learn; and don’t forget, nothing ventured, nothing gained.
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mnandii		#396 Posted : Friday, May 22, 2015 6:45:13 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304		Museveni wrote: winmak wrote: Out of curiosity, Mnandii, do you own any shares in NSE? Your pessimism of this market is as devoted as the thorough analysis of the same... Not pessimism. This is just a concious 'early warning system' when the upward trend is too sweet as most make money & newbies relish the 'easy cash' Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Aguytrying		#397 Posted : Friday, May 22, 2015 7:08:47 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040		I relish moments when I can buy good stocks cheaply. It is almost 2 years since. I've even drawn a bear wish list as i rub my hands and accumulate cash. Ill bring out the wishlist when the bear is in the room. get it? The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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murchr		#398 Posted : Friday, May 22, 2015 7:22:26 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980		mnandii wrote: winmak wrote: Out of curiosity, Mnandii, do you own any shares in NSE? Your pessimism of this market is as devoted as the thorough analysis of the same... I sold my holdings. The thing is, Elliott Wave is an objective approach to analysing a market. If there was short selling existent in the NSE I'd be happy to sell. Imagine my call for NSE to drop below 4900 when it was still at about 5100? Today the target has been met. That is a 200 point move! I concentrate more on forex now. The index is down mainly due to the profit taking on Safcom. Once that is taken care of the wave will def show an upward trend. If you can, please generate last year's chart. Esp from Mar 2014 "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore .
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enyands		#399 Posted : Saturday, May 23, 2015 3:44:11 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/25/2014 Posts: 2,301 Location: kenya		mnandii wrote: winmak wrote: Out of curiosity, Mnandii, do you own any shares in NovYour pessimism of this market is as devoted as the thorough analysis of the same... I sold my holdings. The thing is, Elliott Wave is an objective approach to analysing a market. If there was short selling existent in the NSE I'd be happy to sell. Imagine my call for NSE to drop below 4900 when it was still at about 5100? Today the target has been met. That is a 200 point move! I concentrate more on forex now. When will this bear pass mnadii . Do you have an approximate time when it will be over
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Aguytrying		#400 Posted : Saturday, May 23, 2015 6:43:24 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040		enyands wrote: mnandii wrote: winmak wrote: Out of curiosity, Mnandii, do you own any shares in NovYour pessimism of this market is as devoted as the thorough analysis of the same... I sold my holdings. The thing is, Elliott Wave is an objective approach to analysing a market. If there was short selling existent in the NSE I'd be happy to sell. Imagine my call for NSE to drop below 4900 when it was still at about 5100? Today the target has been met. That is a 200 point move! I concentrate more on forex now. When will this bear pass mnadii . Do you have an approximate time when it will be over 1-2 years is what senior chartist @hisah said. The last one also took 1-2 years. but it depends on the severity of the bear The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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