Sober wrote:It's rather evident that this rights issue will be oversubscribed big time. Such statement is good to discourage some 'investors' who are undecided. We'll be past the 7 BILLION by beginning of 2013
It is
NOT my intention to discourage anyone from investing in the rights issue. Far be it from that. I am just bringing out some issues which I think ought to be discussed, since they have been put together to help us make our investment decision. And I think some of the information that KPLC has sent out is
downright irresponsible, since in my view this information is
incorrect. Now where are these Business Daily reporters when you need them???
I am going out on a limb and making the following assumptions:
1.
PAT will continue growing at 15% per annum (the PAT figure for 2010-11 in the IM is projected to grow at 13.8%) over the 5 years to 2015. Hence, I expect PBT to be a lot higher than Mgt estimates as per the MD's presentation.
2.
Dividend per share will continue to be paid at least at the same rate as it was prior to the Capital Restructuring i.e. a post-split equivalent of the 8/= before the split. I will therefore be expecting a 1/= dividend in 2010-11 if not more. This will not require the company to pay more than it has currently been paying on an absolute basis, even though the shares have increased. The Dividend payout ratio will also be a manageable 41% based on the Co's own projected PAT. This is lower than KenGen's current payout ratio.
Based on my assumptions above, all I am waiting for is to the rights to start trading, and
I will be BUYING if the premium on the rights falls somewhat below the current differential between the share price and that for the rights. Can I hope for a bob? It would however have been nice (and less risky for me) if I could have gotten official clarification on the issues I am raising.
I prefer to buy the rights rather than the share for now, so bring it on.