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NSE 2010 1ST HALF PERFORMANCE
PKoli
#31 Posted : Friday, July 02, 2010 3:41:00 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
@Proverb,

The 500% will not be replicated in any other quarter, otherwise the stock will jump to 40 bob. A growth of the bottom line for MSC of 35% or thereabouts in FY results will be sufficient given the other ventures they have embarked on. More important will be if they succeed in the Tana project.

Investors will be looking into the future!
guru267
#32 Posted : Friday, July 02, 2010 3:42:33 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
ProverB wrote:
considering bulk of investors are "hanging" erroneously on the interim 500% growth in earnings to translate to the final year..is it possible that the actual growth..less than 30% will cause aversion to the counter? ..considering that price rally has stalled almost completely.. Think


this usually happens to counters like mumias... when the known remains unknown investors tend to remain shy.... but if these guys announce a 3billion PBT and a dividend of 60cents like i'm EXPECTING then the share price should rally to a high of 20bob
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
ProverB
#33 Posted : Friday, July 02, 2010 3:46:17 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
guru267 wrote:
when the known remains unknown investors tend to remain shy.... but if these guys announce a 3billion PBT and a dividend of 60cents like i'm EXPECTING then the share price should rally to a high of 20bob


would u suggest locking in profits especialy if accumulated below 7Bob? ..i don't do well with uncertainty.. smile smile
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
Gatheuzi
#34 Posted : Saturday, July 03, 2010 8:28:22 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/16/2009
Posts: 994
dave.kim wrote:



Iam up 70%, mostly from SCOM, SCAN, MSC, KQ & EQTY. Seems KQ is regressing but will wait till I identify other opportunities.[/quote]

@Gatheuzi.kudos man on ur first half picks.u must be laughing all the way to the bank[/quote]


@ dave.kim,

I am still holding them. The challenge is to get picks that will conserve the value or produce appreciation in the final half of this year. The best decision I made was to lock gains in SCOM and took all the proceeds to SCAN which propelled by about 48%.
Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
qw25041985
#35 Posted : Saturday, July 03, 2010 9:37:43 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
@ proverb . Mumias is a classic growth stock. Dnt be blinded by it having no price change in the last few months. Coz even in the next two months there still will be no price change. BUT i expect the price to move up around september when their full year results are due. And shrewd investors start factoring in the profits. As a technical analyst i am excited that its trading good volumes but its price isnt changing because its accumulating. Thus when it starts to go up ksh 20.00 is my price target. @ guru. As far as TA is concerned u ar on the right boat with this one. You can even add more mumias sugar shares in the silence of the market before investors start factorin in the profits.
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
e_kijana
#36 Posted : Saturday, July 03, 2010 9:51:02 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/17/2009
Posts: 55
@PKoli & @Sasha,
Interesting insight... but they have always publicly stated they will look at NSE in 2013. The challenge will be to convince the the board of old conservative wazees. Has this changed - the AGM passed and nothing special was passed to this regard (and would have needed it in the May AGM if they were to go public next year)?

Rights Issue could also be a likely route... though must add that listing would be good for them as it will extend their brand.

youcan'tstopusnow
#37 Posted : Saturday, July 03, 2010 10:20:12 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
ProverB wrote:
guru267 wrote:
when the known remains unknown investors tend to remain shy.... but if these guys announce a 3billion PBT and a dividend of 60cents like i'm EXPECTING then the share price should rally to a high of 20bob

would u suggest locking in profits especialy if accumulated below 7Bob? ..i don't do well with uncertainty.. smile smile

I would recommend you hold until after results are out. My average buy is around 8.5 bob (still adding) and I'll be holding. In their last annual report, they indicated that they plan on acquiring sugar companies across the region. This is bound to push the price up.
Plus they got a better deal from KPLC in their second half of the year.
And If you are REALLY long term, by December 2011, ethanol will be flowing out of their factories.
Then there is the TARDA project
They also trade carbon credits.
I guess what I'm saying is that this company is a GEM, especially for someone who bought at 7 bob.
USIUZE!
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
PKoli
#38 Posted : Saturday, July 03, 2010 11:57:45 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
@ekijana,
True they would require AGM although few major shareholders can conscent to this due this. I agree about the Wazees being a little conservative, but Kuria the CEO has been a reformist. I think there is some bit of restructuring required before they list. Moreover, they want the Company to have proper visibility and reasonable intrinsic value before it is listed
the deal
#39 Posted : Sunday, July 04, 2010 1:13:22 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Mumias is no gem...its Junk...@ 13 bob its fully priced...dont forget Comesa Sugar hits the Kenyan Market soon...mumias wont be able to compete the other comesa countries subsidise their farmers making the cost of raw materials cheaper...
sparkly
#40 Posted : Sunday, July 04, 2010 11:01:13 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
qw25041985 wrote:
@ proverb . Mumias is a classic growth stock. Dnt be blinded by it having no price change in the last few months. Coz even in the next two months there still will be no price change. BUT i expect the price to move up around september when their full year results are due. And shrewd investors start factoring in the profits. As a technical analyst i ...

@qw, technical investor? With due respect i thought TA is all about trends, short, medium, long-term, charts and patterns. What do your charts really say?
Life is short. Live passionately.
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