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KCB rights issue
young
#31 Posted : Thursday, April 15, 2010 10:18:36 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,075
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
@Mzee Slykat

You cannot compare 2008 with 2010 because from mid 2008 till early 2010 the market was generally bearish because of Kenya Post Election Crisis / Global Economic melt down so all banking stocks (except of recent speculative NBK due to bonus carrot no dividend) has has not recovered.

With KCB at 31 bob in 2008
BBK was 90 Bob,
Equity 280 bob (28 bob post split)

Most stocks in other sectors are yet to reach their 2008 highs.

Message is clear for KCB :-
Short Term investors .....EXIT
Long Term Investors.......STAY or EXIT

I am on the STAY category so would like to take the rights.

The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
slykat
#32 Posted : Thursday, April 15, 2010 10:31:55 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 359
I get ur point Young, and I was aware of that while exaggerating my case! They might come back for more cash in 2012 and 2014. The point is, how long will it be before expansion stops to take profits!whats the their strategy? We are investors not the queen, imperialists or expansionists!
slykat
#33 Posted : Thursday, April 15, 2010 10:37:26 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 359
am off for the wkend, by the time i see u again online, we will be talking 18bob down from 23.
guru267
#34 Posted : Thursday, April 15, 2010 10:47:52 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
slykat wrote:
am off for the wkend, by the time i see u again online, we will be talking 18bob down from 23.


@skylat i will hold you to your word...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
chikonde
#35 Posted : Thursday, April 15, 2010 12:19:02 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 1/15/2010
Posts: 81
Maybe after the dividend pay out in May. Anyone selling below 20 bob now (and lose a 5% dividend) would be out of their mind.
slykat
#36 Posted : Sunday, May 09, 2010 1:44:43 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 359
@guru267

i will hold you to your word...[/quote]

Okay, the dividend mitigated that possibility.

To raise 15b, all factors being constant, the new shares would be sold at about 13.70.

So, will the share value drop from 22 to about 15?
winston
#37 Posted : Monday, May 10, 2010 8:34:37 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/14/2010
Posts: 806
Location: Nairobi
Extract from the business daily today:

“There are also chances that KCB will have difficulty raising that amount of money. I can see many shareholders attempting to sell their rights. They have been disturbing shareholders with rights issues for years now and yet do not show much growth in profitability or share price at the stock exchange. Why can’t they raise the money in another way?” asked the analyst.

There is still a bad taste in the mouth of those who bought KCB rights when it was at Sh25 to Sh30 and must be disappointed that it has hovered roundabout Sh21-23 for over a year.

If all the 1.1 billion shares are issued at the same time, the offer price will be Sh13.64 per share thereby raising total shares to 3.3 billion or by 50 per cent.

In market terms, that is 50 per cent dilution and with a six-month price of Sh21.30, shareholders might expect the price to be around Sh12.
Gordon Gekko
#38 Posted : Monday, May 10, 2010 9:47:13 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
As far as I'm aware, they intend to raise the 15B through both equity and debt. I also seem to remember that they will raise in phases.
PKoli
#39 Posted : Monday, May 10, 2010 10:08:01 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
@GG,

Please clarify the source of your info. From the posts I have been reading, KCB would like to raise 15b from 1.1 b rights and that is the basis of making the assertions. I believe business daily: someone has already commended is basis their basis on the same.

I believe the only way they can manage to get people buying the rights is if they price them in such a manner that the average weighted prices i.e the rights and the existing average share price over the last 6 months or whatever the duration has a discount of about 15 percent. else the entire thing will be a big flop
winston
#40 Posted : Monday, May 10, 2010 10:13:42 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/14/2010
Posts: 806
Location: Nairobi
If the 15bn will be raised through both rights and debt then it can mean that the anticipated price will be much lower than the analyst' prediction.

What struck me in the extract and previous posts is the pessimism swirling around the stock.
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