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Unga limited takeover
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Swenani
#31 Posted : Friday, February 09, 2018 2:01:36 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 8/15/2013
Posts: 13,237
Location: Vacuum
VituVingiSana wrote:
Swenani wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Swenani wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Elephant Man wrote:
CMA should lift suspension of trading in this counter after say two working days (i.e. from Monday 12th February 2018) and allow for price discovery in the market...my two cents

That makes sense. After all we know the offer by Seaboard is 40/- and if someone wants to offer more then let them do so...

I recall Access, Rea, KQ followed the same path.. In simple logic if someone buys at above KES 40 they shall be forced to sell it for KES 40 based on the 50 plus one vote. I guess that's why it had to be suspended


What the above two guys are asking for is for the suspension to be lifted to allow for price manipulation aka price discovery-Let's not pretend it will not happen.

What is this new information that was not factored into the share pricing that will cause the share price to magically increase after a takeover bid has been declared?

Price Discovery is not Price Manipulation. Period.

True

I agree price discovery is not price manipulation in normal course of trading but in this case does it mean NSE is an inefficient market? YES And that also applies to other markets. Warren Buffett makes his money on listed stocks by exploiting inefficient markets

What will be the motive of the guys(speculators) buying the stock in those two days? SPECULATION is about making short-term gains. That's OK. ARBITRAGE is not uncommon in developed markets.

What is this new information/knowledge that was'nt there before that warrants this price discovery apart from the takeover?
Info may come out [or figured out] as a result of increased analysis done on what as a "sleepy" firm and shares. Even without a takeover there is info that can be ascertained by certain actions. Perhaps for Unga, there is a realization that the Ndegwas may be willing to give up control. Could another buyer pop up?


Finally, the Offer closes on 20 Sept 2018 at 40/- and a seller may choose to sell at 36/- TODAY [rather than receive 40/- after 8 months]


The above question was specific to Unga. Considering the Ndegwas are not ceding control since they will retain the 50.xxx%.Tell me what is this new information for Unga that has not been factored in the current price?
If Obiero did it, Who Am I?
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VituVingiSana
#32 Posted : Friday, February 09, 2018 2:22:48 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,383
Location: Nairobi
Swenani wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Swenani wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Swenani wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Elephant Man wrote:
CMA should lift suspension of trading in this counter after say two working days (i.e. from Monday 12th February 2018) and allow for price discovery in the market...my two cents

That makes sense. After all we know the offer by Seaboard is 40/- and if someone wants to offer more then let them do so...

I recall Access, Rea, KQ followed the same path.. In simple logic if someone buys at above KES 40 they shall be forced to sell it for KES 40 based on the 50 plus one vote. I guess that's why it had to be suspended


What the above two guys are asking for is for the suspension to be lifted to allow for price manipulation aka price discovery-Let's not pretend it will not happen.

What is this new information that was not factored into the share pricing that will cause the share price to magically increase after a takeover bid has been declared?

Price Discovery is not Price Manipulation. Period.

True

I agree price discovery is not price manipulation in normal course of trading but in this case does it mean NSE is an inefficient market? YES And that also applies to other markets. Warren Buffett makes his money on listed stocks by exploiting inefficient markets

What will be the motive of the guys(speculators) buying the stock in those two days? SPECULATION is about making short-term gains. That's OK. ARBITRAGE is not uncommon in developed markets.

What is this new information/knowledge that was'nt there before that warrants this price discovery apart from the takeover?
Info may come out [or figured out] as a result of increased analysis done on what as a "sleepy" firm and shares. Even without a takeover there is info that can be ascertained by certain actions. Perhaps for Unga, there is a realization that the Ndegwas may be willing to give up control. Could another buyer pop up?


Finally, the Offer closes on 20 Sept 2018 at 40/- and a seller may choose to sell at 36/- TODAY [rather than receive 40/- after 8 months]


The above question was specific to Unga. Considering the Ndegwas are not ceding control since they will retain the 50.xxx%.Tell me what is this new information for Unga that has not been factored in the current price?

Current Price of 29.25 [pre-suspension] or the offer for 40/- [paid after 8 months]?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Swenani
#33 Posted : Friday, February 09, 2018 2:26:37 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 8/15/2013
Posts: 13,237
Location: Vacuum
VituVingiSana wrote:
Spikes wrote:
Swenani wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Swenani wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Elephant Man wrote:
CMA should lift suspension of trading in this counter after say two working days (i.e. from Monday 12th February 2018) and allow for price discovery in the market...my two cents

That makes sense. After all we know the offer by Seaboard is 40/- and if someone wants to offer more then let them do so...

I recall Access, Rea, KQ followed the same path.. In simple logic if someone buys at above KES 40 they shall be forced to sell it for KES 40 based on the 50 plus one vote. I guess that's why it had to be suspended


What the above two guys are asking for is for the suspension to be lifted to allow for price manipulation aka price discovery-Let's not pretend it will not happen.

What is this new information that was not factored into the share pricing that will cause the share price to magically increase after a takeover bid has been declared?

Price Discovery is not Price Manipulation. Period.

True

I agree price discovery is not price manipulation in normal course of trading but in this case does it mean NSE is an inefficient market?

What will be the motive of the guys(speculators) buying the stock in those two days?

What is this new information/knowledge that was'nt there before that warrants this price discovery apart from the takeover?


I can see @vvs and @obiero are inspired by greed and they can say anything that could add value into their holding. It's okay to be greedy but lifting Unga trading suspension is tantamount to price manipulation. The market has already spoken.

False. Where's the price manipulation?
You do not need to buy the shares.
You do not need to sell the shares.
Seaboard needs not offer a different price for the shares.
A shareholder/investor may choose to buy/sell shares as they so please.
Why should a shareholder be locked in [Carbacid had been suspended for ages and Matiba sold out to Centum at a low value] until the end of the Offer Period?

What does it achieve to "lock" investors into Unga (or any shares) for another 7 months? Unga shareholders cannot exit and re-invest in other opportunities. Perhaps I want to sell Unga at 35 today and buy KK at 15 but now i am stuck.

And YES, I invest to make money NOT as charity. Offer me 22/- for KK and they are yours!


Isn't the second last paragraph a contradiction of the last paragraph? Even if you want to make money,you need to be realistic very few counters will offer you a capital gain 33% over a period of 7 months.

YIf you dispose of one share of Unga at 30/= you will be only be able to buy 2 shares of your favourite counter, kk.For you to recover the foregone 10bob from Unga per share, it means KK will have to appreciate by over 33% in 7 months period. Is that realistic?
If Obiero did it, Who Am I?
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Swenani
#34 Posted : Friday, February 09, 2018 2:28:10 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 8/15/2013
Posts: 13,237
Location: Vacuum
VituVingiSana wrote:
Swenani wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Swenani wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Swenani wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Elephant Man wrote:
CMA should lift suspension of trading in this counter after say two working days (i.e. from Monday 12th February 2018) and allow for price discovery in the market...my two cents

That makes sense. After all we know the offer by Seaboard is 40/- and if someone wants to offer more then let them do so...

I recall Access, Rea, KQ followed the same path.. In simple logic if someone buys at above KES 40 they shall be forced to sell it for KES 40 based on the 50 plus one vote. I guess that's why it had to be suspended


What the above two guys are asking for is for the suspension to be lifted to allow for price manipulation aka price discovery-Let's not pretend it will not happen.

What is this new information that was not factored into the share pricing that will cause the share price to magically increase after a takeover bid has been declared?

Price Discovery is not Price Manipulation. Period.

True

I agree price discovery is not price manipulation in normal course of trading but in this case does it mean NSE is an inefficient market? YES And that also applies to other markets. Warren Buffett makes his money on listed stocks by exploiting inefficient markets

What will be the motive of the guys(speculators) buying the stock in those two days? SPECULATION is about making short-term gains. That's OK. ARBITRAGE is not uncommon in developed markets.

What is this new information/knowledge that was'nt there before that warrants this price discovery apart from the takeover?
Info may come out [or figured out] as a result of increased analysis done on what as a "sleepy" firm and shares. Even without a takeover there is info that can be ascertained by certain actions. Perhaps for Unga, there is a realization that the Ndegwas may be willing to give up control. Could another buyer pop up?


Finally, the Offer closes on 20 Sept 2018 at 40/- and a seller may choose to sell at 36/- TODAY [rather than receive 40/- after 8 months]


The above question was specific to Unga. Considering the Ndegwas are not ceding control since they will retain the 50.xxx%.Tell me what is this new information for Unga that has not been factored in the current price?

Current Price of 29.25 [pre-suspension] or the offer for 40/- [paid after 8 months]?


Current price of 29.25
If Obiero did it, Who Am I?
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Elephant Man
#35 Posted : Friday, February 09, 2018 3:41:46 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 12/24/2008
Posts: 112
@swenani... so what prevented seabord from buying on the open market (before suspension) at 30/- bob or less, instead of offering to pay 40/- bob in eight months time...

The market price is determined by willing buyers and sellers based on all the information that they have at that specific time...

The fact that Seabord wants to carry out a takeover is 'new' information...

NSE is not a 'fish' market...
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Ericsson
#36 Posted : Friday, February 09, 2018 4:31:15 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,821
Location: NAIROBI
Minority shareholders in the company
"Accept and Move On"
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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obiero
#37 Posted : Friday, February 09, 2018 4:38:55 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,329
Location: nairobi
Realtreaty wrote:
Its a surprise for me.
I had expected Carbacid or BOC takeover not Unga group.
Food market is becoming a better area to make money where UN has tendency to buy locally or regionally to cut on costs.
Will Jimmy Wanjigi Family nd the Rich Indians in Carbacid make decision to be on their own?

Crown already made intentions clear..
COOP, IMH, KEGN, KQ, MTNU
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Swenani
#38 Posted : Friday, February 09, 2018 4:43:52 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 8/15/2013
Posts: 13,237
Location: Vacuum
Elephant Man wrote:
@swenani... so what prevented seabord from buying on the open market (before suspension) at 30/- bob or less, instead of offering to pay 40/- bob in eight months time...

The market price is determined by willing buyers and sellers based on all the information that they have at that specific time...

The fact that Seabord wants to carry out a takeover is 'new' information...

NSE is not a 'fish' market...


What's preventing you from offering your shares to seabord at 30bob or 50?Willing buyer, willing seller
If Obiero did it, Who Am I?
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, February 09, 2018 5:05 PM | Reason: Not specified
wukan
#39 Posted : Friday, February 09, 2018 4:55:09 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,658
Ericsson wrote:
Minority shareholders in the company
"Accept and Move On"


Exactly. Nothing to debate here. Let them send over the divorce papers I sign and move on.
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Elephant Man
#40 Posted : Friday, February 09, 2018 6:59:34 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 12/24/2008
Posts: 112
What's preventing you from offering your shares to seabord at 30bob or 50?Willing buyer, willing seller

Lift the suspension and I will make them a offer...alternatively, tell me how...
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