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Eye on I&M ...
Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:I&M has caught my eye.. My measurements tell me that its a steal at current price. with bond issuance for expansion into East Africa, the stock can only go up.. based on previous owners conditioning for super profits, I expect a swing upto high of KES 350 in about 1 year. Thank me later  You wish! If you had said 150 or even 200, I might have been on board lakini 350??? On this, I have to (reluctantly) side with @guru
My estimated EPS, for 2013 (on the higher end) is 13 therefore 130 (10x PER) seems acceptable. With the KES 10bn Bond [but raising only 4bn in 2013] the scope for expansion has increased thus the EPS gains could be higher in 2014. Let's assume the 2014 EPS of 16 with a higher PER of 12 = 192 but not 350.
Never say never. A split like Carbacid could be good for the share price.
Again with the splits. How does that add value??how is 100bob note different from 10 10bob coins?? It still comes to 100bob total
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Angelica _ann wrote:Upward thrust is on slowly
... and it will keep on in line with the steady growth of the bank
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,375 Location: Nairobi
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Horton wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:I&M has caught my eye.. My measurements tell me that its a steal at current price. with bond issuance for expansion into East Africa, the stock can only go up.. based on previous owners conditioning for super profits, I expect a swing upto high of KES 350 in about 1 year. Thank me later You wish! If you had said 150 or even 200, I might have been on board lakini 350??? On this, I have to (reluctantly) side with @guru
My estimated EPS, for 2013 (on the higher end) is 13 therefore 130 (10x PER) seems acceptable. With the KES 10bn Bond [but raising only 4bn in 2013] the scope for expansion has increased thus the EPS gains could be higher in 2014. Let's assume the 2014 EPS of 16 with a higher PER of 12 = 192 but not 350.
Never say never. A split like Carbacid could be good for the share price.
Again with the splits. How does that add value??how is 100bob note different from 10 10bob coins?? It still comes to 100bob total Yes. And yet... See Carbacid as an example.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,321 Location: nairobi
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mwekez@ji wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:Upward thrust is on slowly
... and it will keep on in line with the steady growth of the bank
Rest assured. It may have taken longer due to the NSE bear, but KES 350 will be touched COOP, IMH, KEGN, KQ, MTNU
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,375 Location: Nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:I&M has caught my eye.. My measurements tell me that its a steal at current price. with bond issuance for expansion into East Africa, the stock can only go up.. based on previous owners conditioning for super profits, I expect a swing upto high of KES 350 in about 1 year. Thank me later You wish! If you had said 150 or even 200, I might have been on board lakini 350??? On this, I have to (reluctantly) side with @guru
My estimated EPS, for 2013 (on the higher end) is 13 therefore 130 (10x PER) seems acceptable. With the KES 10bn Bond [but raising only 4bn in 2013] the scope for expansion has increased thus the EPS gains could be higher in 2014. Let's assume the 2014 EPS of 16 with a higher PER of 12 = 192 but not 350.
Never say never. A split like Carbacid could be good for the share price.
Where's @Obiero so we can thank him? 
Even with the projected EPS of 16 for 2015 [2x 1H results] the price is 120.
At a 10 PER, the EPS has to be 35 for the price to hit 350. That's 2.2x the current EPS.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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VituVingiSana wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:I&M has caught my eye.. My measurements tell me that its a steal at current price. with bond issuance for expansion into East Africa, the stock can only go up.. based on previous owners conditioning for super profits, I expect a swing upto high of KES 350 in about 1 year. Thank me later You wish! If you had said 150 or even 200, I might have been on board lakini 350??? On this, I have to (reluctantly) side with @guru
My estimated EPS, for 2013 (on the higher end) is 13 therefore 130 (10x PER) seems acceptable. With the KES 10bn Bond [but raising only 4bn in 2013] the scope for expansion has increased thus the EPS gains could be higher in 2014. Let's assume the 2014 EPS of 16 with a higher PER of 12 = 192 but not 350.
Never say never. A split like Carbacid could be good for the share price.
Where's @Obiero so we can thank him?
Even with the projected EPS of 16 for 2015 [2x 1H results] the price is 120.
At a 10 PER, the EPS has to be 35 for the price to hit 350. That's 2.2x the current EPS.
I've come to accept that @Obiero is a dreamer.
Of course one day I&m will be at 350 when the eps is in the 30's. Just that it may be several years from now.
We have to look at something else. The acquisitions, they seem to have an appetite for these starting with city trust on listings
listings. A well timed one could kick the price up to over 200 in a flash. Even the giro bank one was it not bearish 200 pap.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,321 Location: nairobi
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guru267 wrote:obiero wrote: I expect a swing upto high of KES 350 in about 1 year. Thank me later
@obiero after the HFCK blunder its seems now that you have finally lost it!  
On this one I was wrong @guru.. Todays biggest looser COOP, IMH, KEGN, KQ, MTNU
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/2/2009 Posts: 26,331 Location: Masada
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obiero wrote:guru267 wrote:obiero wrote: I expect a swing upto high of KES 350 in about 1 year. Thank me later
@obiero after the HFCK blunder its seems now that you have finally lost it!
On this one I was wrong @guru.. Todays biggest looser
The same scenerio will meet you in KQ. Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,321 Location: nairobi
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Impunity wrote:obiero wrote:guru267 wrote:obiero wrote: I expect a swing upto high of KES 350 in about 1 year. Thank me later
@obiero after the HFCK blunder its seems now that you have finally lost it!
On this one I was wrong @guru.. Todays biggest looser
The same scenerio will meet you in KQ.
Time will tell COOP, IMH, KEGN, KQ, MTNU
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,375 Location: Nairobi
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My (hurried) analysis. (Sensible) Input required so we know whose views are not needed.
PAT 1H 2016 [excl Mauritius and Rwanda] 3,483mn [Line 14 of KE (incl TZ) results per the published results]
EPS 8.85 [based on 393mn shares. No idea how many ESOP shares are out there]
If I&M can manage just 75% of the 1H in 2H [3Q under the current interest regime and then 4Q under the lower interest regime] = 8.88 x 1.75 = EPS 15.54/share
Add RW + Mauritius for EPS of 1.46 attributable to I&M Holdings so 15.54 + 1.46 = 17/- EPS
I expect more from RW + Mauritius coz MU is quite profitable for them.
At 96.50 that's 5.67 PER for FY 2016.
NAV [KE+TZ] is 29,165mn = NAV/Share = 74 [Then there's MU + RW]. That's PB of 1.30
@Aguy @kausha @Wazuans [except you know who] am I missing something?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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