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Game of numbers. ......
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Sure
#31 Posted : Thursday, December 27, 2012 12:00:23 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/9/2010
Posts: 546
Location: Garissa
Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:

Because RAO does not want another Luo taking a significant position as it will create the perception that ODM/CORD is a tribal outfit.


As evidenced by his knack for fixing his relatives (brothers, sisters, etc) and his tribes men in high positions and abroad as ambassadors (Secretary General, Org Sec etc,) he would be more than happy to actually impose his relative or wife to be a Governor of Nairobi without a second thought. The Only Reason he is backing Wanjiru is cauze he believes she would bolt from ODM while her stay would attract Kikuyu and Starehe votes to Cord, period. Politics is about strategy and gain the numbers and numbers make you win.

For your information, demografically, Rongai reflects Nairobi more than any other town in Kenya. It is the boarding town for Nairobi workers where 600 matatus and 200 buses ferry passengers on a daily basis. By day, the town is slow but comes to life in the morning and evening. Being in the Rift Valley is only for matters semantic.
Wisdom to detect when share prices hit rock bottom.
When interest on bonds keep going up, you know the bear run is on high street. When interest on bonds start leveling, the bear has met the bull and they have hit rock bottom. When the interest rates on bonds start coming down, the bull has overpowered the bear and you better be riding the bull.
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madollar
#32 Posted : Thursday, December 27, 2012 12:02:37 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/17/2009
Posts: 2,040
Location: GA
@obi you are right with 1.78 million voters most of this are migrant workers from ukambani western and nyanza who will tilt toward cord .kiambu county has 800 000 voters making illogical to have similar number of kikuyu leaving in nairobi may be 400 000 to 500 000.Their is also a sizeable middle class population who may have an impact particulary on the governor position
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Rahatupu
#33 Posted : Thursday, December 27, 2012 1:04:40 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 1,982
Location: matano manne
madollar wrote:
@obi you are right with 1.78 million voters most of this are migrant workers from ukambani western and nyanza who will tilt toward cord .kiambu county has 800 000 voters making illogical to have similar number of kikuyu leaving in nairobi may be 400 000 to 500 000.Their is also a sizeable middle class population who may have an impact particulary on the governor position



Simple analysis:
1. Dagoretti south = TNA
2. Dagoretti north = 50/50 (Kawangware = Luhya)
3. Parklands Constituency 50/50
4. Karen / Langata Constituency 50/50
5. Kibera Constituency CORD
7. Roysambu Constituency Jubilee
8. Kasarani Constituency Jubilee
9. Ruaraka Constituency Jubilee
10. Kariobangi Constituency CORD
11. Kayole Constituency Jubilee
12. Embakasi Constituency Jubilee
13. Mihango Constituency Jubilee
14. Nairobi-West Constituency CORD
15. Makadara Constituency Jubilee
16. Kamukunji Constituency Jubilee
17. Starehe Constituency 50/50
18. Mathare Constituency Jubilee.

Even if the 50/50 constituencies were to go to CORD, nairobi would seem more of a Jubilination than a CORDination.
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Sure
#34 Posted : Thursday, December 27, 2012 1:21:07 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/9/2010
Posts: 546
Location: Garissa
Rahatupu wrote:

Simple analysis:
1. Dagoretti south = TNA
2. Dagoretti north = 50/50 (Kawangware = Luhya)
3. Parklands Constituency 50/50
4. Karen / Langata Constituency 50/50
5. Kibera Constituency CORD
7. Roysambu Constituency Jubilee
8. Kasarani Constituency Jubilee
9. Ruaraka Constituency Jubilee
10. Kariobangi Constituency CORD
11. Kayole Constituency Jubilee
12. Embakasi Constituency Jubilee
13. Mihango Constituency Jubilee
14. Nairobi-West Constituency CORD
15. Makadara Constituency Jubilee
16. Kamukunji Constituency Jubilee
17. Starehe Constituency 50/50
18. Mathare Constituency Jubilee.

Even if the 50/50 constituencies were to go to CORD, nairobi would seem more of a Jubilination than a CORDination.


Habari ndio hiyo.

@Raha, I thought Kibish was in Lang'ata constituency ama they have hived it off as a constituency on its own?
Wisdom to detect when share prices hit rock bottom.
When interest on bonds keep going up, you know the bear run is on high street. When interest on bonds start leveling, the bear has met the bull and they have hit rock bottom. When the interest rates on bonds start coming down, the bull has overpowered the bear and you better be riding the bull.
Back to top
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poundfoolish
#35 Posted : Thursday, December 27, 2012 1:32:07 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/2/2009
Posts: 2,458
Location: Nairobi
maka wrote:
mpobiz wrote:
maka wrote:
Let whoever is meant to win,win...


The winner will be determined not by luck but by votes.
Easteners won't vote for rao at the expense of their jubilee neighbours and coisins.
cord don't have the numbers and that's the bottom line.

...is this why we gained independence?so that every election year we behave like fools and galvanize each other we continue propagating hatred,making otherz seem of less value as compared to others...a majority of us r jst screwed up.


@Maka
Some realities are sad..
When people are discussing how to balance a budget.. how much government is too much in peoples lives..we are more engaged in tribal maths..

Mtu wetu! mtu Wenyu..!
I'll be selling ropes in March or April for the suicidal amongst us who would have lost..
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Obi 1 Kanobi
#36 Posted : Thursday, December 27, 2012 2:49:42 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/23/2008
Posts: 3,017
Sure wrote:
Rahatupu wrote:

Simple analysis:
1. Dagoretti south = TNA
2. Dagoretti north = 50/50 (Kawangware = Luhya)
3. Parklands Constituency 50/50
4. Karen / Langata Constituency 50/50
5. Kibera Constituency CORD
7. Roysambu Constituency Jubilee
8. Kasarani Constituency Jubilee
9. Ruaraka Constituency Jubilee
10. Kariobangi Constituency CORD
11. Kayole Constituency Jubilee
12. Embakasi Constituency Jubilee
13. Mihango Constituency Jubilee
14. Nairobi-West Constituency CORD
15. Makadara Constituency Jubilee
16. Kamukunji Constituency Jubilee
17. Starehe Constituency 50/50
18. Mathare Constituency Jubilee.

Even if the 50/50 constituencies were to go to CORD, nairobi would seem more of a Jubilination than a CORDination.


Habari ndio hiyo.

@Raha, I thought Kibish was in Lang'ata constituency ama they have hived it off as a constituency on its own?

This is more of your opinion and less of facts. I wish you could start from the current MP's/councillors and convince us why ODM/CORD will lose out to Jubilee on seats that they have always held.
"The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
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madollar
#37 Posted : Thursday, December 27, 2012 2:50:12 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/17/2009
Posts: 2,040
Location: GA
@rahatupu The coveted positons are govenor senator and women county rep not mps. watch out for the numbers of registered voters in certain constituecies leaning towards CORD and a place like roysambu.JUBILEE may find itself in nairobi county like ODM in 2007 where it won majority seats but lost the popular vote
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Rahatupu
#38 Posted : Thursday, December 27, 2012 3:59:47 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 1,982
Location: matano manne
madollar wrote:
@rahatupu The coveted positons are govenor senator and women county rep not mps. watch out for the numbers of registered voters in certain constituecies leaning towards CORD and a place like roysambu.JUBILEE may find itself in nairobi county like ODM in 2007 where it won majority seats but lost the popular vote



The real losers will be known once the party nominations are over, at the moment there is tension in both camps as to the manner of nominations. Early signs show CORD more likely to field multiple candidates than Jubilee (assuming they have more parties to placate than Jubilee).
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kangi
#39 Posted : Thursday, December 27, 2012 4:32:05 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/23/2009
Posts: 526
Sure wrote:
Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:

Because RAO does not want another Luo taking a significant position as it will create the perception that ODM/CORD is a tribal outfit.


As evidenced by his knack for fixing his relatives (brothers, sisters, etc) and his tribes men in high positions and abroad as ambassadors (Secretary General, Org Sec etc,) he would be more than happy to actually impose his relative or wife to be a Governor of Nairobi without a second thought. The Only Reason he is backing Wanjiru is cauze he believes she would bolt from ODM while her stay would attract Kikuyu and Starehe votes to Cord, period. Politics is about strategy and gain the numbers and numbers make you win.

For your information, demografically, Rongai reflects Nairobi more than any other town in Kenya. It is the boarding town for Nairobi workers where 600 matatus and 200 buses ferry passengers on a daily basis. By day, the town is slow but comes to life in the morning and evening. Being in the Rift Valley is only for matters semantic.


Starehe and Wanjru will be separated since she is in the run for governor and the former will be contested separately and that is unlikely to make one change allegiance.
Accept no one's definition of your life; define your life.
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kangi
#40 Posted : Thursday, December 27, 2012 4:53:51 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/23/2009
Posts: 526
What role will money play in the polls in terms of campaigning and voting?

I think I know who has the money and as Kenyans we have not changed much.
Accept no one's definition of your life; define your life.
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