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I&M Bank to List at NSE via City Trust.
VituVingiSana
#31 Posted : Friday, December 28, 2012 2:50:42 PM
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http://www.businessdaily...1/-/ewqhoo/-/index.html
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
FUNKY
#32 Posted : Friday, December 28, 2012 3:22:19 PM
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Joined: 4/30/2010
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Is it worth buying City Trust at 400/-?
VituVingiSana
#33 Posted : Friday, December 28, 2012 8:05:24 PM
Rank: Chief

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FUNKY wrote:
Is it worth buying City Trust at 400/-?
Like any other firm, you have to look at the details.

I expect a hefty split thanks to the 'high' price of City Trust. And splits seem to generate excitement.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
sparkly
#34 Posted : Friday, December 28, 2012 8:10:04 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
mwekez@ji wrote:
sparkly wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
@VVS, et al. Who are the current directors of City Trust? And why is mr. market valuing City Trust this expensively? Wouldn’t mind the latest annual report


financials oct 2012


Financial_statement Noted. Annual_report (latest - for the FY Ending July 2012) still needed. Like this one >>> City Trust Annual Report for the FY Ending July 2006
.


Funky wrote:

Is it worth buying City Trust at 400/-?


Just crunched the numbers:

- City Trust owns 7.3% of I&M. They have a subsidiary per the July 2012 financials (I have just seen the summary statements without the notes). Lets assume that the subsidiary does not contribute materially to the earnings of City Trust and therefore I&M is the main investment.

- I&M is a portfolio investment for City Trust hence they recognize dividend received as their income.

- For year ended 31 Dec 2012, I&M's EPS was KShs 117.76 and DPS was KShs 26, a 22% payout.

- If we assume that current shareholders of City Trust will be end up owning 7.3% of the holding company, we can recognize the earnings on earnings basis rather than dividend received basis.

- The trailing PER for City Trust on dividend received basis is 46.15, but on earnings basis it becomes 9.93.

- EPS in 2011 grew by 38% over 2010. If we assume similar growth in 2012 then the forward PER is 7.72.

- In conclusion, City Trust is NOT EXPENSIVE at current price of 390-400. It's peer NIC is however trading at lower PER.
Life is short. Live passionately.
mwekez@ji
#35 Posted : Saturday, December 29, 2012 11:23:50 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
@sparkly, touché. .... are lockup of the anchor shareholders expected in this listing arrangement?
VituVingiSana
#36 Posted : Saturday, December 29, 2012 11:51:37 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,353
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
sparkly wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
@VVS, et al. Who are the current directors of City Trust? And why is mr. market valuing City Trust this expensively? Wouldn’t mind the latest annual report


financials oct 2012


Financial_statement Noted. Annual_report (latest - for the FY Ending July 2012) still needed. Like this one >>> City Trust Annual Report for the FY Ending July 2006
.


Funky wrote:

Is it worth buying City Trust at 400/-?


Just crunched the numbers:

- City Trust owns 7.3% of I&M. They have a subsidiary per the July 2012 financials (I have just seen the summary statements without the notes). Lets assume that the subsidiary does not contribute materially to the earnings of City Trust and therefore I&M is the main investment.

- I&M is a portfolio investment for City Trust hence they recognize dividend received as their income.

- For year ended 31 Dec 2012, I&M's EPS was KShs 117.76 and DPS was KShs 26, a 22% payout.

- If we assume that current shareholders of City Trust will be end up owning 7.3% of the holding company, we can recognize the earnings on earnings basis rather than dividend received basis.

- The trailing PER for City Trust on dividend received basis is 46.15, but on earnings basis it becomes 9.93.

- EPS in 2011 grew by 38% over 2010. If we assume similar growth in 2012 then the forward PER is 7.72.

- In conclusion, City Trust is NOT EXPENSIVE at current price of 390-400. It's peer NIC is however trading at lower PER.
It's hard to figure out the FY 2012 EPS due to end-of-month adjustments, (re)valuation of bonds, NPLs, etc but as @sparkly says, I&M (City Trust) seems inexpensive but there are other options. Future growth (potential) is key!

Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#37 Posted : Saturday, December 29, 2012 12:17:35 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,353
Location: Nairobi
To add to @Sparkly, some of my thoughts:

I like NIC but I also worry about the bank's future growth in a crowded field. It has new operations in Uganda & bought a smallish bank in Tanzania. Except for the ndegwa businesses, does it have sufficient 'large' clients who do cross-border business?

I&M is not in Uganda. Actis sold BCR (Rwanda) to I&M. I understand Actis had 60% of DFCU (listed in Uganda) on the block too. Was it too much for I&M to swallow in one bite? Perhaps after digesting BCR, I&M can bid for DFCU using 'listed' shares as currency. If they are smart about it, go for a cross-listing on the USE & RSE to generate buzz & goodwill.

Tanzania: The growth has been rapid per the Annual Report. http://www.imbank.com/tz/about-us/annual-reports/
Unlike Kenya, Tanzania is underbanked but also a tougher place to do business coz the socialists don't quite get 'loans' need to be repaid. Michael Shirima owns 5% of I&M Bank TZ and he is also the largest shareholder in Precision Air.

Rwanda: I&M bought BCR in 3Q 2012 (per the press releases) so it may take a few months to integrate it fully into the group. Rwandan firms do a lot of business with Kenyans & Tanzanians. I expect increased synergy with Tanzania rather than Kenya. An importer can use Tanga/Dar to import goods then move them to Rwanda. DRC is huge business for Kenyans & Rwandans. 20% owned by Government of Rwanda. I expect a listing of BCR or a cross-listing of I&M/City on the RSE.
http://www.bcr.co.rw/index.php/financial-reports

Mauritius: http://bankone.mu/en/financial_statements.aspx
Rapid growth of the bank in a small economy but Mauritius acts like a financial center bridging India & China to (South, Central & East) Africa. The 'safety' & good governance in Mauritius has encouraged businesses to incorporate there including some subsidiaries/associates of Transcentury & Britam. 50% owned by CIEL of Mauritius.

Kenya: It remains 'king' for I&M but it increasingly contributes a smaller percentage of the profits though 90%+ of absolute profits. Reading the papers, ads & press releases, they are ramping up in Western & Rift Valley. Is it coz of increased demand from clients or expansion into the economically significant counties? [New branches in Kisii, Eldoret & Nakuru]
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mwekez@ji
#38 Posted : Saturday, December 29, 2012 12:18:16 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
I&M is a nice fattened bull ... especially year 2010 (95% PAT Growth) ... graphs available here (page 17) >>> http://176.58.105.22/wp-content...ort%20layout%20final.pdf ... 2011 PAT growth slowed to 38% .... 2012 and onwards ....
mwekez@ji
#39 Posted : Thursday, January 03, 2013 5:34:42 PM
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Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Rich Today: City Trust firmed 2.56% to close at 400.00 which is a Fresh All Time Closing High. City Trust is the subject of a Reverse Takeover where I&M Bank will essentially list at the Securities Exchange via City Trust. City Trust trades on a PE Ratio of 47.2189 and the Equations around the Reversal of I&M into City Trust will require careful scrutiny because the inherent Bias might be for an expensive Valuation.
VituVingiSana
#40 Posted : Sunday, January 13, 2013 10:44:00 AM
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Posts: 18,353
Location: Nairobi
The Information Memorandum is out on 21 Jan but when will the 2012 results be released? I&M bought BCR in 3Q 2012 so that will boost the assets & probably the profits too.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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