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hisah
#3971 Posted : Wednesday, October 16, 2013 11:05:12 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
murchr wrote:
ekahindi wrote:
32hrs left to the debt ceiling.@hisah,what could the effect on markets globbaly in case congress fail to come up with a vote.


Before hisah checks in let me try to speculate. A default will mean the Yuan will strengthen against the USD and that will imply that exports from China will become expensive. That in itself can trigger another world recession.

If they dont, China will think twice before investing heavily in the US economy. I din't think the sideshows would take this long.

USD rate spike and CDS spikes will cool down all markets.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Thiong'o
#3972 Posted : Wednesday, October 16, 2013 10:44:27 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 10/14/2011
Posts: 661
The Financial Crisis That Could Bankrupt America
In the year 2050, experts predict more than 80 million Americans will be over the age of 65, or double current levels. In the same timeframe, the number of “working age” Americans – those between 18 and 64 – will rise just 17%.
In other words, the problem we have today of too few workers trying to support too many retirees is going to get worse – much worse – in the decades ahead.
The demographic realities of America’s aging population threatens to bankrupt the nation, which is already spending 22% of the federal budget on Social Security – or $773 billion in fiscal 2013.
http://finance.yahoo.com...neration-163123756.html
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symbols
#3973 Posted : Thursday, October 17, 2013 2:11:56 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/19/2013
Posts: 2,552


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hisah
#3974 Posted : Thursday, October 17, 2013 7:19:15 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
US default 'averted' on temporary measures. The farce continues...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Mainat
#3975 Posted : Thursday, October 17, 2013 7:27:12 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Did anybody really expect the US to default? Even the tea party lot have some brains...
On the other hand, some of the US debtholders will obviously diversify their portfolios given the uncertainty created. I am sure Germany and the Nordic countries will be beneficiaries
Sehemu ndio nyumba
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murchr
#3976 Posted : Thursday, October 17, 2013 7:57:41 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
hisah wrote:
US default 'averted' on temporary measures. The farce continues...


2 bulls fight, the common man defaulted in his bills. Next show Jan
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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hisah
#3977 Posted : Thursday, October 17, 2013 10:04:48 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
JPMorgan Expected to Admit Fault in ‘London Whale’ Trading Loss - http://dealbook.nytimes....trading-regulator/?_r=0

Interesting for JP Morgue to admit such market trick ills (manipulation)... If they admit they're guilty many lawsuits will follow suit.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, October 17, 2013 10:06 AM | Reason: Not specified
karanjakinuthia
#3978 Posted : Thursday, October 17, 2013 10:05:32 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
The IMF has joined the fold of Marxism, seeking to shakedown every single dime to pay off the bankers. The report states:

“The sharp deterioration of the public finances in many countries has revived interest in a “capital levy”— a one-off tax on private wealth—as an exceptional measure to restore debt sustainability. The appeal is that such a tax, if it is implemented before avoidance is possible and there is a belief that it will never be repeated, does not distort behavior (and may be seen by some as fair). … The conditions for success are strong, but also need to be weighed against the risks of the alternatives, which include repudiating public debt or inflating it away. … The tax rates needed to bring down public debt to precrisis levels, moreover, are sizable: reducing debt ratios to end-2007 levels would require (for a sample of 15 euro area countries) a tax rate of about 10 percent on households with positive net wealth. (page 49)"

Read more:

http://www.forbes.com/si...al-wealth-confiscation/
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hisah
#3979 Posted : Thursday, October 17, 2013 10:18:07 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
karanjakinuthia wrote:
The IMF has joined the fold of Marxism, seeking to shakedown every single dime to pay off the bankers. The report states:

“The sharp deterioration of the public finances in many countries has revived interest in a “capital levy”— a one-off tax on private wealth—as an exceptional measure to restore debt sustainability. The appeal is that such a tax, if it is implemented before avoidance is possible and there is a belief that it will never be repeated, does not distort behavior (and may be seen by some as fair). … The conditions for success are strong, but also need to be weighed against the risks of the alternatives, which include repudiating public debt or inflating it away. … The tax rates needed to bring down public debt to precrisis levels, moreover, are sizable: reducing debt ratios to end-2007 levels would require (for a sample of 15 euro area countries) a tax rate of about 10 percent on households with positive net wealth. (page 49)"

Read more:

http://www.forbes.com/si...al-wealth-confiscation/

Definitely unsustainable...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#3980 Posted : Thursday, October 17, 2013 11:33:03 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
China’s central bank now has $3.66 trillion in foreign reserves - http://qz.com/135340/chi...ut-whered-it-come-from/

Quote:
China’s central bank now has $3.66 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves. That’s more than the combined reserves of the four runners-up: Japan, the euro zone, Saudi Arabia and Switzerland.


All these hoarding in the midst of a US default. The signal is very loud that USD rates will at some point spike...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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