Time to revive the thread. 87/= has printed.

Next MPC is in March, deep in election period. They shouldn't have cut CBR at the last meeting, now they're selling dollars to keep the shilling afloat...talk about left and right hand not knowing...

But CBK reduced the rate last week! Could this depreciation be as a result of this?

Ok so when do we ask for USD from relas in Diaspora? Do we trade them @90 in Feb or wait for March? @hisah, what say you?

Check the rates at CBD Forex opposite Nation,they might be almost there!

according to the CBK's weekly report, in the week ending january 24th, "2013 usable official foreign exchange reserves held by the Central Bank decreased from US Dollar 5,264 million (equivalent to 4.13 months of import cover) as at January 17, 2013 to US Dollar 5,177 million (equivalent to 4.06 months of import cover).."
globally, minimum reserves are set at 4 months of import cover...for how long can the CBK keep supporting the shillingi without needing to extend a hand to the IMF? @Hisah, are we looking at a possible 95/96 vs the green buck by April or sooner maybe? your thoughts?

Imho, the election outcome will be a game-changer for the Siringi. At least in the short-term.
The growing budget deficit will need to be plugged at the sametime as we are implementing increased government size.

Logic-which can be in short supply in our economy- suggests that we might need more foreign aid/loans in the short-term.

Draw your own conclusions

i was looking at the CBK data, The shillingi has been going south vs $ since the beginning of 2013. In week ending jan 10th it was down a weekly average of 0.12%; week ending 17th, down 0.22% and week ending 23rd, down 0.48 % ... maybe this week down 0.70 %? and the reserves have been dwindling. The last time reserves went below 4 months import cover ( allow me to abbreviate it "I.C."), the KeS was at the 86.03/86.2 vs $, then once it hit sub 3.9 months I.C, it was free fall from there. we are slowly headed back to sub 4 months I.C(last week it was 4.06 IC).This year we have elections and politicians must "give the mwananchi something small" , fear of PEV, demand for energy et al, the most ambitious decentralization ever(demand for more silingi - that could widen the BoP), travel warnings ( like this one here travel warning to parts of kenya) .... long story short; whats the outlook in the short term ( 2-6 months)? Does the CBK have the muscle to fight? how will the KeS react? so is it Hold or not? - i am asking for a friend.