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KENOL/KOBIL
muganda
#371 Posted : Tuesday, July 20, 2010 12:06:05 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,907
Whooph! Need to see how this one pans out. But there is wisdom in choosing battles; hope they don't loose the war.
VituVingiSana
#372 Posted : Tuesday, July 20, 2010 12:18:39 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,366
Location: Nairobi
muganda wrote:
Whooph! Need to see how this one pans out. But there is wisdom in choosing battles; hope they don't loose the war.
Yep, that is true.
On the other hand, can you imagine how bad it would have been if they were sucked into Triton?
As Kenya's largest Oil Marketer (at the time) they could have 'bought' Kes 2bn of 'air'... if they had not been careful or sceptical of MoE, KPC & Triton. KCB had a KShs 2bn write off!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Gordon Gekko
#373 Posted : Tuesday, July 20, 2010 7:16:26 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
@mv_ufanisi, Segman said at the AGM that they don't intend to enter the upstream business when asked about the Uganda oil find. Said their focus was retail.
mv_ufanisi
#374 Posted : Tuesday, July 20, 2010 11:32:15 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/15/2010
Posts: 625
Gordon Gekko wrote:
@mv_ufanisi, Segman said at the AGM that they don't intend to enter the upstream business when asked about the Uganda oil find. Said their focus was retail.


It's great to focus on retail when everything else is working. But given the current problems which don't seem likely to go away, it's only prudent risk management to diversify their income streams.

What will KenolKobil do if KPRL terminates the processing agreement and locks them out of business? It definitely looks like a possible scenario to me. So smart thinking is to diversify. Maybe they can also try to bring in their oil through Dar or some other port BUT the real oil business in Africa now is in prospecting.
2012
#375 Posted : Tuesday, July 20, 2010 11:52:18 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
muganda wrote:
Whooph! Need to see how this one pans out. But there is wisdom in choosing battles; hope they don't loose the war.


I've heard from the walls that the reserves are running low and there can only be 2 outcomes to this stalemate, either starve the country of oil or take Kenol's oil. I think that's the card Segman is holding up his sleeves. This could be his greatest victory or biggest mistake. Very thin line...

BBI will solve it
:)
the deal
#376 Posted : Tuesday, July 20, 2010 12:31:26 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@2012 i think that will be Segmens worst mistake by choosing to go to war...remember GOK are verry keen in making NOCK a reputable player in the oil industry...then theres oillybia who have expressed desire in acquiring the Shell assets...then Total i'm sure they would love to increase their dominance over Kenol....so the stakes are against Kenol...i think the mngmnt should stop being egocentric and save the company and build on their panafrican dream but this war will be costly and i think 2H will be a disaster if this mess is not sorted out...
FundamentAli
#377 Posted : Tuesday, July 20, 2010 1:44:02 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/4/2008
Posts: 1,289
Location: Nairobi
I think there will be intervention at least for the short term with KK given an escape route. Other players in the Industry must also be watching closely. It is not what is happening to KK but what can happen to them as well. With rumours that Essar might also be intereted in doing business downstream, we will have a very interesting scenario. It was interesting to see the new MD of KPRL talking with a lot of venom for a case that he found ongoing. I hope one day I will understand the business of oil.
VituVingiSana
#378 Posted : Tuesday, July 20, 2010 2:34:46 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,366
Location: Nairobi
Essar wanted to buy a downstream business [Why would they want a standalone refining business only in Kenya?]

I think the dispute over Triton [Insiders say Essar & GoK had 'agreed' as part of the KPRL sale to share the assets of Triton] in the courts means Essar needs another target. The best regional network is KK followed Shell then by Total...

As a KK shareholder, if Essar were to offer 14/share... I would be happy to sell & find another counter for re-investment!

Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Kausha
#379 Posted : Tuesday, July 20, 2010 3:41:17 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
If you understand the oil industry or have spoken to an insider you will understand that KK have us all by the balls. To start with, they have next month's stock sitting on the sea and incurring demmurage, what we forget is that some silly triton wannabe and the guesses are few here, are sitting on ullage expecting to sort out financing of their stock as prices also increase. Now expect an artificial shortage by the second week of August and at that point KK will be quickly given ullage and after refining the price of our ngata will be a few more shillings higher to reflect the demurrage!Unaitwa ujinga wa mwafrika!

KRPL is behaving like a nabbed conman who tries to throw tantrums to create confusion etc. What they forget is that most people can see through their act. What KK is seeking to do is open a big can of worms about the refinery efficiency which if they win becomes a precedent for all other clients to go to court and seek remedy.

That refinery is a moribund heap of equipment. Ask yourself before Chevron and BP sold their share GoK had been really begging the two other shareholders to fund an upgrade for up to 36B, they even got stanchart involved as lead arrangers, but offcourse these two shareholders are seasoned hands in the business and obviously told gava to stroll, no need throwing good money at the heap! Essar comes along and volunteers to buy the two off and using some crooked gava links convinces gava to raise refining fees of which KK won't accept and that's why KK decided to go to war. At the end of this sponsored media wars they will get something substantial off KRPL and KPC and hopefully hand it to their shareholders. Bw. Segman we are behind you, someone has to stand up to this nonsense.
VituVingiSana
#380 Posted : Tuesday, July 20, 2010 4:00:42 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,366
Location: Nairobi
@Kausha

1) Who are these other Triton wannabes? [I have my suspects]
2) I agree with you. It's a matter of time before the whole thing blows up. Of course, GoK & MoE will attack KK using NOCK, media, etc
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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