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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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Mainat
#371 Posted : Thursday, May 14, 2015 9:02:47 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Buy defensive stocks. Markets go up. And down
Sehemu ndio nyumba
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growing
#372 Posted : Thursday, May 14, 2015 9:40:29 AM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 1/23/2015
Posts: 16
Location: mtandao
mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:
The bear is at hand guys. Unfortunately many will not 'see' it come until they are consumed by it!



Wave analysis:

Guys watch the above impulse wave keenly. It follows Elliott's rules and guidelines impeccably.

Notice how wave (3) subdivides into smaller 5 waves (i.e waves 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5)!

Notice that wave 3 itself subdivides into 5 smaller waves!

Notice that wave (3) is elongated as compared to wave (1)!

Notice that wave (4) is longer and more complex than wave (2). This is the guideline of alternation.

Notice that bracket wave (4) ends in the territory of wave 4! This is the guideline of depth of corrective waves.

Detailed Analytics:

Wave (1) terminates at 5313.84
Wave (2) at 5346.56
Wave (3) at 5026.79
Wave (4) at 5100.51

Wave lengths:

Wave (1) = (5499.64-5313.84) = 185.8
Wave (2) = (5346.56-5313.84) = 32.72
Wave (3) = (5346.56-5026.79) = 319.77
Wave (4) = (5100.51-5026.79) = 73.72

Wave (3) is approximately 1.618 X wave (1)

Wave (2) is Fibonacci 0.382 X wave (4).

Wave (4) is Fibonacci 0.236 X wave wave (3).

Assuming wave (4) is complete (evidence suggests it is ) then we can target the termination of wave (5). Options:

a) Wave (5) being equal to wave (1) then wave (5) terminates at (5100.51-185.8) = 4914.71

b) Wave (5) being Fibonacci 0.618 of wave (1) then wave (5) target is [5100.51-(0.618 X 185.8)] = 4985.69

c) Wave (5) being Fibonacci 1.618 of wave (1) then wave (5) target is [5100.51-(1.618 X 185.8)] = 4799.89

The c option is more likely. I expect lots of volatility starting tomorrow 11th May. In that case an elongated wave (5) would make sense. Also, as I have been saying for sometime, I want a clean break of the NSE 20 Index below 4907 level to increase odds of the bear to almost certainity. Option c would make ensure of that.

Summary:

Expect huge volatility starting tomorrow 11th May. Watch of 4907 level. Re-evaluate your share holdings in the NSE.


NSE 20 Share Index at below option B. My aim remains option C. Pray

From 5499 to 4799 is a market correction not a bear market, I think. Isn't it?
Compounding
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mkonomtupu
#373 Posted : Thursday, May 14, 2015 10:51:30 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
@growing what you are seeing above is the intermediate and minor wave. Its a wave within a wave (yaani unaona mawimbi na tsunami yaja). If you go Post#1 in this thread you will see the Cycle wave(yaani tsunami) represented by upper case Roman numerals(I, II, III,IV,V, a,b,c) where I-V are the basic 5 wave impulse sequence(tukienda juu) and a,b,c is the 3 wave corrective sequence(tukirudi chini). What @mnandii is telling you we are about to hit wave c corrective sequence.
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hisah
#374 Posted : Thursday, May 14, 2015 12:38:29 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
Strong rejection @5500 level as expected. Still a solid multi year barrier with NSE20 now clocking a 5 week losing streak enroute to test the 5000 handle. Waiting to see if former multi-year resistance will offer support. Support buffer is cluster between 4900 - 5050 level. Below there down to 4700.

When the 4yr rising wedge is broken downwards, bears will be in the driving seat.



NSE20 enroute to close in the red 6 weeks in a row! You have to go back to Q2 2012 to spot this losing streak in weekly cartoon! On the monthly cartoon, if April closes in the red that will be a 2 month sellside trend.

Should the above rising wedge break down hard, the entire 2013/2014 gains risk reversal. Keep an eye on this. While break above up rising trendline will open a retest of 6000 level last seen in 2007.

@aguy - the wedge has broken down after closing below the 5000 handle! Definitely the index is heading to 4700 in coming weeks. Will be hard for any bounce to break above 5200 going forward. Below 4700 bears get stronger as sell pressure begins to pile up. At that low level USDKES will likely be at 98 - 100 level. Those holding overvalued stocks that have rallied against fundies and on vapour volume get ready for a reality check selloff!

@mnandii - financial are definitely in the thick of this ensuing storm smile
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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winmak
#375 Posted : Thursday, May 14, 2015 5:35:07 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 12/1/2007
Posts: 539
Location: Nakuru
I have given up on chasing the market downwards (all my sell orders are failing as prices hit new lows)... I will wait for them to hit rock bottom and average down... (Someone kindly educate me on defensive stocks, this term is being thrown around lately)...
For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases ~ WB
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#376 Posted : Thursday, May 14, 2015 5:53:22 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
winmak wrote:
I have given up on chasing the market downwards (all my sell orders are failing as prices hit new lows)... I will wait for them to hit rock bottom and average down... (Someone kindly educate me on defensive stocks, this term is being thrown around lately)...

High dividend yield bluechips the likes of Bamburi Stanchart etc
@SufficientlyP
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kaifastus
#377 Posted : Thursday, May 14, 2015 6:33:12 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/17/2011
Posts: 207
Location: humu humu
winmak wrote:
I have given up on chasing the market downwards (all my sell orders are failing as prices hit new lows)... I will wait for them to hit rock bottom and average down... (Someone kindly educate me on defensive stocks, this term is being thrown around lately)...

Energy stocks and retailers/food...
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obiero
#378 Posted : Thursday, May 14, 2015 8:20:54 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,211
Location: nairobi
if u dont need the money at hand then there is no need to sell.. hold on. better times shall return

KQ ABP 4.26
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Aguytrying
#379 Posted : Friday, May 15, 2015 6:09:06 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@hisah. Thank God for the discipline of staying away from overvalued counters when everyone was making money from them. we Just need the NSE reset properly. then by 2017- 18. we can talk of double tripple profits like happened in 2011. for me it's exciting, I can add stars to the laggards.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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hisah
#380 Posted : Tuesday, May 19, 2015 2:34:45 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
The moment 4700 support level gives up I expect the newbies to completely disappear from the investor forum. The 4yr wedge breakdown is a serious warning that downside pressure is going to be nasty. NSE index is negative 3.61% as per yesterday's close (4932) from the year open (5117).

USDKES is negative 6.6% from year open (90.55) as per today's price (96.55). KES breakdown is ahead of market downside pressure! Bad signal. Meaning foreign investors are facing forex losses which are now starting to pile up with equity losses. This is forcing hands to start cutting losses or hasten profit booking.

Caution here for those that are still bullish. The econ growth feedback is not encouraging as well as those earnings warnings confirm the same. This is all happening before inflation becomes a headache! Is KE soon to face stagflation? Probably. That would be worse than dealing with inflation spike.

If stagflation presents itself, the market will deflate for quite some time e.g. a year or two!

I'm putting this extreme outlook so that those willing to remain during the stormy period ensure that they don't buy too soon. Buy window should be open for a year or two.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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