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Ksh at its weakest since it floated in 1994
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hisah
#741 Posted : Monday, June 11, 2012 8:50:32 AM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Treasury fiscal policy review, the right things to do to safeguard KES. CBK dollar selling is unsustainable business and a lazy shortcut!

www.businessdailyafrica....4/-/j3040iz/-/index.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#742 Posted : Monday, June 11, 2012 8:54:49 AM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
QW25091985 wrote:
you can also look at it as the below diagram is showing we are in a congestion area . what that means is that price doesn't have a direction. ans when we breakout of either of the red lines i expect some volatility ( huge price movements).
this are just the different scenarios that would play out !


And the congestion is pressing upwards... About 88s next stop is 95s before testing 100. Then the recent 107 high and off to wherever after that! It wont be funny for the econ & consumers. At least oil's nosedive is a saving grace for now smile
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#743 Posted : Tuesday, June 12, 2012 1:40:44 PM
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Today trading @85.65 - almost a shilling down vs USD or 1.19% down as well as against the rest of the majors (euro, pound, swissie etc) where KES is also bleeding more than 1% at the moment.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#744 Posted : Tuesday, June 19, 2012 12:14:25 PM
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=19bbvNiTYgA
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hisah
#745 Posted : Wednesday, June 20, 2012 7:02:13 AM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Derivatives market aka futures market coming next to you in KE. Currency swaps, options blamed by CBK for wild KES swings last year. Very funny.

If this market is truly coming online soon, best bet would be SCBK, BBK & CFC. As for the derivatives tradable funds, I hope they'll be well disclosed. I'm sure CBK & CMA wouldn't want to experience the derivatives bomb out like the CDOs of GFC...

First trade, shortselling interest rates. That will be a onesided trade for a long time. That will also see equities lift off. I'm beginning to like insurance stocks in anticipation...


www.businessdailyafrica....0/-/4mc5kqz/-/index.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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QW25091985
#746 Posted : Wednesday, June 20, 2012 7:36:51 AM
Rank: User


Joined: 1/24/2012
Posts: 1,675
Location: In Da Hood
QW25091985 wrote:
indeed things are Bad for KES . cbk did a 'good' job though as we didnt make a new recent low for the kes but with the 61.8% fib level holding as of close of Friday i would expect new lows to be challenged .Look at below chart
obviously a move above 88 will be bad for the local currency




WOW . we broke the 84.40 ( 61.8% fib level). i think we maybe headed to 80-81 level . lets see.
definitely thats what cbk wants
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hisah
#747 Posted : Thursday, June 21, 2012 2:18:33 PM
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Current account snapshot since 70s to 2010. 2011 was bad and nothing has improved.

But USDKES as well as other fx currencies have been kicked by a 'strong' KES. This manipulation will bite hard when it comes due.

www.indexmundi.com/facts.../current-account-balance
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hisah
#748 Posted : Monday, June 25, 2012 6:06:39 AM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
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CBK still investigating why USDKES rallied to 107 months later. Still pretending they could see it coming. 87.90 was tested recently, 90 is coming. Market price manipulation has never been an effective policy. Mr market eventually has his way and he's currently flashing alerts in current tbill & bond auctions yield fall reversal.

www.businessdailyafrica....1/-/kpbb1uz/-/index.html

www.businessdailyafrica..../-/15ucm4lz/-/index.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#749 Posted : Monday, June 25, 2012 6:30:32 AM
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Good article by Sunny Bindra - www.businessdailyafrica....4/-/7qpr6jz/-/index.html
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hisah
#750 Posted : Monday, June 25, 2012 6:49:38 AM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
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Good idea for gok to borrow from brasilia. The less they borrow from WB/IMF the better chance they stand with econ stability.

www.standardmedia.co.ke/...loan-from-Brazilian-bank
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hisah
#751 Posted : Thursday, June 28, 2012 7:04:39 AM
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Seriously treasury!? Inflation effects? Very unpopular this in an election year. Smells like IMF conditions...

www.businessdailyafrica....34/-/mkxry5/-/index.html
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youcan'tstopusnow
#752 Posted : Wednesday, July 18, 2012 1:12:20 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
So has the Kenya Shilling bottomed?



''Although beaten down over the past five years, this depreciation trend of the Kenyan Shilling appears to have bottomed out, as
reflected in the two-year
chart above.''
http://www.businessdaily...6/-/k2qspp/-/index.html
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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hisah
#753 Posted : Wednesday, July 18, 2012 3:28:43 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
So has the Kenya Shilling bottomed?



''Although beaten down over the past five years, this depreciation trend of the Kenyan Shilling appears to have bottomed out, as
reflected in the two-year
chart above.''
http://www.businessdaily...6/-/k2qspp/-/index.html

Quote:
In 2012, the Shilling has moved in lockstep with the trend in the Euro


No need to read the article further... KES strength is artificial - since Dec 2011 CBK is prop it up.

The reversal of tbill yields upwards since May is displaying the lie as well as the GDP growth compressing...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#754 Posted : Sunday, July 22, 2012 9:56:56 PM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
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Tbills up, equities up?! Bizarro market?! Who's fool who...


http://www.businessdaily...14/-/v6eam6/-/index.html
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hisah
#755 Posted : Monday, July 23, 2012 7:50:59 PM
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EURKES likely to test 96.80 like back in May 2010. Those exporters pricing in euros will see their revenues trimmed badly considering last year in Nov EURKES was trading above 140.

So will EURKES by end of 2012 be trading at 96s or sub 96. We will see...
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hisah
#756 Posted : Monday, August 06, 2012 5:31:35 AM
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Interesting argument by Jimnah Mbaru. A Bank of Industries.

www.businessdailyafrica....0/-/jrtxaqz/-/index.html
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hisah
#757 Posted : Thursday, October 04, 2012 5:47:26 PM
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The secret rewarding trade shorting KES vs Rupee (long INR/KES)... @kizee hope you hoped onto this bus in Aug... Now homing in on the rand i.e. euro vs rand... Above 12 should see a test of 14s then its a breakout into new all time highs. The labour strikes in SA are yet to be baked in the rand.
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hisah
#758 Posted : Friday, October 05, 2012 8:47:01 AM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Civil servants demand pay review - http://www.businessdaily.../-/4o6ya8z/-/index.html

Quote:
Civil servants Thursday threatened to go on strike next month if their hardship and house allowances are not harmonised with those of teachers.
Share This Story

The Union of Kenya Civil Servants has demanded that the government reviews the hardship pay to 30 per cent of basic salary. It has also called for a review of house allowance.

The union want both allowances, expected to cost taxpayers billions of shillings, included in this month’s pay failure to which its members will down their tools in four weeks.

Said Tom Odege, the union’s secretary-general at a press conference in Nairobi: “If it is not included in the October pay, we will go on strike in November”.


When IMF started dispatching the USD loans after the USDKES cross went bonkers, the conditions included control of the wage bill. So far the KE gubberment has ignored that condition. The belt will be tightened soon when the piper comes calling and austerity pills will be served as gubberment spending is cut down to meet the conditions or no more funds flow at the critical time...
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kizee1
#759 Posted : Friday, October 05, 2012 10:04:26 AM
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Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
hisah wrote:
The secret rewarding trade shorting KES vs Rupee (long INR/KES)... @kizee hope you hoped onto this bus in Aug... Now homing in on the rand i.e. euro vs rand... Above 12 should see a test of 14s then its a breakout into new all time highs. The labour strikes in SA are yet to be baked in the rand.



i wish i did more focused on rates nowadays,much more money to be madesmile
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hisah
#760 Posted : Monday, October 08, 2012 6:13:03 PM
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The Rand has started taking it in the chin... Mr Market is yet to price in the labour unrest scenario. Shorting rands is in fashion for now.
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