Wazua
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PLAYING THE MARKET-A NEW YEAR RESOLUTION
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/15/2006 Posts: 3,907
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@My 2 cents, agreed 12/= for 2009 dividend payout, though @stocksmaster is projecting a 6% div yield for 2010 at a price of 250/=.
@stocksmaster, I'm still holding SCBK but then again I'm a peculiar investor. What I wondered though is what your opinion is on the controversial Equity? (I see KCB, SCBK, Equity have nearly the same profit before tax in absolute terms thus far)
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/15/2006 Posts: 3,907
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@My 2 cents, agreed 12/= for 2009 dividend payout, though @stocksmaster is projecting a 6% div yield for 2010 at a price of 250/=.
@stocksmaster, I'm still holding SCBK but then again I'm a peculiar investor. What I wondered though is what your opinion is on the controversial Equity? (I see KCB, SCBK, Equity have nearly the same profit before tax in absolute terms thus far)
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/26/2006 Posts: 463 Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
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@ Muganda: Its interesting that at this point in time Equity, SCBK & KCB have all reported abt Ksh4.5 B profit. Both Equity & SCBK have almost same size of balance sheet which is almost half that of KCB. I anticipate that for the next 2 years Equity will grow faster than the other two in profitability. However, the difference in growth will not be more than 10% higher than that of KCB. The mid tier banks (NIC,DTB,CFC) have more upside potential . Happy hunting x handle: @stocksmaster79
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/26/2006 Posts: 463 Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
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The DTBK Q3 results are very impressive. I had projected a 105% growth in Q3 2010 EPS versus 2009 Q3. They have returned a 118% growth. An EPS of Ksh 10.83 for Q3 can be extrapolated to a 2010 full year EPS of Ksh 14.50. At current price of Ksh 128, the forward P/E is 8.8. Bond trading was the main cash cow.That does not take away the thunder from the results because the same bond trading opportunity was available to the other banks. It means a good deployment of shareholder capital in maximising returns by the management. Going forward, the bank has an aggressive branch expansion strategy that should in the medium to long term be a major source of revenue growth.Its loan lending policy is also getting aggressive (see growth in loan book and loan loss provisions). The fair value for this share should be a trailing P/E of at least 20 (Ksh 153), rising to a price of Ksh 190 after the announcement of the end of year results in March 2011 (Assuming an EPS of Ksh 14.50 for 2010, this would be a trailing P/E of 13). As i had indicated earlier, this share can easily return a 50% growth in capital gains within the next six months. I intend to hold the share for the next six months unless significant capital gains present themselves. Happy hunting. x handle: @stocksmaster79
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/16/2009 Posts: 994
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@ Stocksmaster, it has been good following this thread throught the year. Congrats being transparent and making money too. I hope the resolution of playing the market and of course keeping us posted will run into 2011. Cheers!! Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,213 Location: nairobi
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@stocksmaster and all. This is the first time iv read this thread! Iv gone thru the whole damn thing and realised that im such a failure. I cld have gained sm insight had I seen sm of these discourses in good time. And to think of all the time I spent in the culture section reading 'js for laughs'.. #fail
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/26/2006 Posts: 463 Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
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END OF YEAR REPORTAs the year comes to an end, below is the performance of my speculation portfolio that begun on the 1st January 2010. Cash In Hand: Ksh 5,645.........[ A] Cash received as dividends (SCBK interim dividend paid Ksh 5 X 2111 shares less 5%)= Ksh 10,027.............................[ B] Market Value of Shares as at 31st December 2010: Diamond Trust Bank: Ksh 135 X 4200 = Ksh 567,000 Standard Chartered Bank: Ksh 258 X 2111 = Ksh 544,638 Total: Ksh 1,111,638 Less 1.82% Transaction fee on disposal: Ksh 20,232 Net Value of Shares currently held: Ksh 1,091,406...........................[ C] Total Value of Cash, Dividends and shares as at 31st Dec 2010: {A + B + C} = Ksh 1,107,078Initial Capital (01/01/2010): Ksh 527,850 Net Profit: 579,228Net Percentage profit for 2010: 109.7%SUMMARYAt the beginning of the year, the target was to attain a profit of at least 50% or outperform the NSE index growth for 2010. With the NSE INDEX returning a 36.5% growth (about 38.5% when adjusted for dividends paid for 2010), my portfolio has outperformed the NSE Index by a factor of 2.85. Going forward, I intend to maintain this activity going into 2011. The closing portfolio for 2010 will constitute the opening portfolio for 2011. My target for 2011 is to replicate the 109.7% return (thus a portfolio worth Ksh 2,214,156 by 31st December 2011). Towards this end, i will be rebalancing my current portfolio next week and posting all the activity as the year progresses. Happy hunting and Happy New Year. x handle: @stocksmaster79
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,627
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stocksmaster wrote:END OF YEAR REPORT
As the year comes to an end, below is the performance of my speculation portfolio that begun on the 1st January 2010.
Cash In Hand: Ksh 5,645.........[A]
Cash received as dividends (SCBK interim dividend paid Ksh 5 X 2111 shares less 5%)=Ksh 10,027.............................[B]
Market Value of Shares as at 31st December 2010:
Diamond Trust Bank: Ksh 135 X 4200 = Ksh 567,000
Standard Chartered Bank: Ksh 258 X 2111 = Ksh 544,638
Total: Ksh 1,111,638
Less 1.82% Transaction fee on disposal: Ksh 20,232
Net Value of Shares currently held: Ksh 1,091,406...........................[C]
Total Value of Cash, Dividends and shares as at 31st Dec 2010: {A + B + C}
= Ksh 1,107,078
Initial Capital (01/01/2010): Ksh 527,850
Net Profit: 579,228
Net Percentage profit for 2010: 109.7%
SUMMARY
At the beginning of the year, the target was to attain a profit of at least 50% or outperform the NSE index growth for 2010.
With the NSE INDEX returning a 36.5% growth (about 38.5% when adjusted for dividends paid for 2010), my portfolio has outperformed the NSE Index by a factor of 2.85.
Going forward, I intend to maintain this activity going into 2011. The closing portfolio for 2010 will constitute the opening portfolio for 2011.
My target for 2011 is to replicate the 109.7% return (thus a portfolio worth Ksh 2,214,156 by 31st December 2011).
Towards this end, i will be rebalancing my current portfolio next week and posting all the activity as the year progresses.
Happy hunting and Happy New Year.
Brilliant.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2009 Posts: 2,863
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stocksmaster wrote:END OF YEAR REPORT
As the year comes to an end, below is the performance of my speculation portfolio that begun on the 1st January 2010.
Cash In Hand: Ksh 5,645.........[A]
Cash received as dividends (SCBK interim dividend paid Ksh 5 X 2111 shares less 5%)=Ksh 10,027.............................[B]
Market Value of Shares as at 31st December 2010:
Diamond Trust Bank: Ksh 135 X 4200 = Ksh 567,000
Standard Chartered Bank: Ksh 258 X 2111 = Ksh 544,638
Total: Ksh 1,111,638
Less 1.82% Transaction fee on disposal: Ksh 20,232
Net Value of Shares currently held: Ksh 1,091,406...........................[C]
Total Value of Cash, Dividends and shares as at 31st Dec 2010: {A + B + C}
= Ksh 1,107,078
Initial Capital (01/01/2010): Ksh 527,850
Net Profit: 579,228
Net Percentage profit for 2010: 109.7%
SUMMARY
At the beginning of the year, the target was to attain a profit of at least 50% or outperform the NSE index growth for 2010.
With the NSE INDEX returning a 36.5% growth (about 38.5% when adjusted for dividends paid for 2010), my portfolio has outperformed the NSE Index by a factor of 2.85.
Going forward, I intend to maintain this activity going into 2011. The closing portfolio for 2010 will constitute the opening portfolio for 2011.
My target for 2011 is to replicate the 109.7% return (thus a portfolio worth Ksh 2,214,156 by 31st December 2011).
Towards this end, i will be rebalancing my current portfolio next week and posting all the activity as the year progresses.
Happy hunting and Happy New Year.
Intelligence is made of this!! Congrats @SM. IF YOU EXPECT ME TO POST ANYTHING POSITIVE ABOUT ASENO, YOU MAY AS WELL SIT ON A PIN
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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NOMA! What will stocksmaster do next? Will he lose the SCBK shares and add more DTB? Or will he go back to KCB? We can only find out next week GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Wazua
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PLAYING THE MARKET-A NEW YEAR RESOLUTION
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