KES is starting to get disorderly vs the USD. Line in the sand is 100. Breach that level and NSE heads into sunset as lending rates start to squeeze liquidity. Firms with forex loans will feel the squeeze too.

Polishing my defensive armor ready for the bear battle.

Cash is the new king in town. I sold my entire holdings last week.

the recent bear brings about the fullness of learning especially for the generation that started trading after 2012, who believe that stocks only move up.

As part of a wide group of proposals to boost economic growth, Denmark wants to allow shops, including restaurants, gas stations, and clothing stores, to stop taking cash. Right now, these establishments must accept cash payments.

The country's lawmakers support the move to electronic payments because they are concerned that physical money puts too many “administrative and financial burdens” on shops and that it acts as a drag on GDP growth.

The bear is at hand guys. Unfortunately many will not 'see' it come until they are consumed by it!



Wave analysis:

Guys watch the above impulse wave keenly. It follows Elliott's rules and guidelines impeccably.

Notice how wave (3) subdivides into smaller 5 waves (i.e waves 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5)!

Notice that wave 3 itself subdivides into 5 smaller waves!

Notice that wave (3) is elongated as compared to wave (1)!

Notice that wave (4) is longer and more complex than wave (2). This is the guideline of alternation.

Notice that bracket wave (4) ends in the territory of wave 4! This is the guideline of depth of corrective waves.

Detailed Analytics:

Wave (1) terminates at 5313.84
Wave (2) at 5346.56
Wave (3) at 5026.79
Wave (4) at 5100.51

Wave lengths:

Wave (1) = (5499.64-5313.84) = 185.8
Wave (2) = (5346.56-5313.84) = 32.72
Wave (3) = (5346.56-5026.79) = 319.77
Wave (4) = (5100.51-5026.79) = 73.72

Wave (3) is approximately 1.618 X wave (1)

Wave (2) is Fibonacci 0.382 X wave (4).

Wave (4) is Fibonacci 0.236 X wave wave (3).

Assuming wave (4) is complete (evidence suggests it is ) then we can target the termination of wave (5). Options:

a) Wave (5) being equal to wave (1) then wave (5) terminates at (5100.51-185.8) = 4914.71

b) Wave (5) being Fibonacci 0.618 of wave (1) then wave (5) target is [5100.51-(0.618 X 185.8)] = 4985.69

c) Wave (5) being Fibonacci 1.618 of wave (1) then wave (5) target is [5100.51-(1.618 X 185.8)] = 4799.89

The c option is more likely. I expect lots of volatility starting tomorrow 11th May. In that case an elongated wave (5) would make sense. Also, as I have been saying for sometime, I want a clean break of the NSE 20 Index below 4907 level to increase odds of the bear to almost certainity. Option c would make ensure of that.

Summary:

Expect huge volatility starting tomorrow 11th May. Watch of 4907 level. Re-evaluate your share holdings in the NSE.