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Kenya airways Right Issue
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,507 Location: nairobi
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Spikes wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:I am so glad I took my losses and got rid of this piece of crap 5 years ago though it's a pity I am a shareholder via GoK as a Taxpayer. @vvs please read the circular, even if it's for the sake of it. GoK has gotten a very good deal and the other shareholders too. By logic, we should expect a rally today.. Kigeugeu kamili..... Excuse me? HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/6/2016 Posts: 165 Location: Nairobi
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What does the next 12months look like for a retail investor who entered this stock at 5bob this year? Looking for some commentary on the share price and rights issue options. Thanks
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,507 Location: nairobi
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snifadog wrote:What does the next 12months look like for a retail investor who entered this stock at 5bob this year? Looking for some commentary on the share price and rights issue options. Thanks Twelve months is too far.. By today, the fair value of KQ should read KES 8.5 at the least.. One needs to review the pro forma balance sheet to get a feel of things to come HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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obiero wrote:snifadog wrote:What does the next 12months look like for a retail investor who entered this stock at 5bob this year? Looking for some commentary on the share price and rights issue options. Thanks Twelve months is too far.. By today, the fair value of KQ should read KES 8.5 at the least.. One needs to review the pro forma balance sheet to get a feel of things to come Bwana @Obiero how do you arrive at this? Based on what valuation metric? PE Rato...Price To Book Value Ratio post balance sheet restructuring? I think the KQ stock is overvalued at the moment...it should be trading at around Ksh3-4...are you happy that GoK is now a majority shareholder? Given the track record of African Government owned airlines are you not scared?
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/5/2011 Posts: 1,059
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The share will get a beating for a short while because many people read this line from BD Quote:If the plan is approved, the 70,000 Kenya Airways’ retail shareholders will be left with a tiny 1.24 per cent of the national carrier, down from 24 per cent — making them the biggest losers in the transaction. Demand now at ksh 4.7 with low demand volume of 5,500 units, coming days will be very telling To Each His Own
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,507 Location: nairobi
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the deal wrote:obiero wrote:snifadog wrote:What does the next 12months look like for a retail investor who entered this stock at 5bob this year? Looking for some commentary on the share price and rights issue options. Thanks Twelve months is too far.. By today, the fair value of KQ should read KES 8.5 at the least.. One needs to review the pro forma balance sheet to get a feel of things to come Bwana @Obiero how do you arrive at this? Based on what valuation metric? PE Rato...Price To Book Value Ratio post balance sheet restructuring? I think the KQ stock is overvalued at the moment...it should be trading at around Ksh3-4...are you happy that GoK is now a majority shareholder? Given the track record of African Government owned airlines are you not scared? I'm not scared, as I am in both governments. I'll explain later.. Meanwhile, for the KES 8.5, I arrived there via indicative conversion price of KES 2.13 consolidated on a ratio of 1:4.. All the ordinary shares will be listed at the NSE. Hence, if the converted shares trade at KES 8.5, why would the minority stake trade any lower?? HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,101 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:I am so glad I took my losses and got rid of this piece of crap 5 years ago though it's a pity I am a shareholder via GoK as a Taxpayer. @vvs please read the circular, even if it's for the sake of it. GoK has gotten a very good deal and the other shareholders too. By logic, we should expect a rally today.. It's an awful deal for GoK [Taxpayers]. The better option would have been to put KQ into "Restructuring under Bankruptcy"and wipe out the existing shareholders while giving the creditors [including GoK] 100% of a "clean" KQ. The country [Treasury/Taxpayers] would have been better off ditching many of the creditors, suppliers, employees, lawsuits, etc associated with "old KQ" for a "new KQ". Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,101 Location: Nairobi
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@Obiero - Do you have a detailed breakdown of which banks are exposed to Kenya Airways? And what amounts? I have Equity, I&M, NIC & DTB in varying amounts. I hope 100% of their exposure to KQ has been NPL'd. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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obiero wrote:the deal wrote:obiero wrote:snifadog wrote:What does the next 12months look like for a retail investor who entered this stock at 5bob this year? Looking for some commentary on the share price and rights issue options. Thanks Twelve months is too far.. By today, the fair value of KQ should read KES 8.5 at the least.. One needs to review the pro forma balance sheet to get a feel of things to come Bwana @Obiero how do you arrive at this? Based on what valuation metric? PE Rato...Price To Book Value Ratio post balance sheet restructuring? I think the KQ stock is overvalued at the moment...it should be trading at around Ksh3-4...are you happy that GoK is now a majority shareholder? Given the track record of African Government owned airlines are you not scared? I'm not scared, as I am in both governments. I'll explain later.. Meanwhile, for the KES 8.5, I arrived there via indicative conversion price of KES 2.13 consolidated on a ratio of 1:4.. All the ordinary shares will be listed at the NSE. Hence, if the converted shares trade at KES 8.5, why would the minority stake trade any lower?? 1. After consolidation there will be 7.2Bn trading listed ordinary shares 2. Shareholder Equity will be Ksh11Bn 3. KQ plans to borrow another Ksh10Bn from the already screwed banks 4. Book value per share after consolidation will be Ksh1.5 At Ksh8.5 I will be overpaying mahn Correct me if my numbers are wrong
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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the deal wrote:obiero wrote:the deal wrote:obiero wrote:snifadog wrote:What does the next 12months look like for a retail investor who entered this stock at 5bob this year? Looking for some commentary on the share price and rights issue options. Thanks Twelve months is too far.. By today, the fair value of KQ should read KES 8.5 at the least.. One needs to review the pro forma balance sheet to get a feel of things to come Bwana @Obiero how do you arrive at this? Based on what valuation metric? PE Rato...Price To Book Value Ratio post balance sheet restructuring? I think the KQ stock is overvalued at the moment...it should be trading at around Ksh3-4...are you happy that GoK is now a majority shareholder? Given the track record of African Government owned airlines are you not scared? I'm not scared, as I am in both governments. I'll explain later.. Meanwhile, for the KES 8.5, I arrived there via indicative conversion price of KES 2.13 consolidated on a ratio of 1:4.. All the ordinary shares will be listed at the NSE. Hence, if the converted shares trade at KES 8.5, why would the minority stake trade any lower?? 1. After consolidation there will be 7.2Bn trading listed ordinary shares 2. Shareholder Equity will be Ksh11Bn 3. KQ plans to borrow another Ksh10Bn from the already screwed banks 4. Book value per share after consolidation will be Ksh1.5 At Ksh8.5 I will be overpaying mahn Correct me if my numbers are wrong @deal has it...8.5 would be an overpayment. Minority shareholders will gain on value but lose on market price...@obiero is mixing the two. I find that the restructuring has too many moving parts more so on the part where KLM is concerned. Seems like a 'leap of faith' kind of plan. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,507 Location: nairobi
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the deal wrote:obiero wrote:the deal wrote:obiero wrote:snifadog wrote:What does the next 12months look like for a retail investor who entered this stock at 5bob this year? Looking for some commentary on the share price and rights issue options. Thanks Twelve months is too far.. By today, the fair value of KQ should read KES 8.5 at the least.. One needs to review the pro forma balance sheet to get a feel of things to come Bwana @Obiero how do you arrive at this? Based on what valuation metric? PE Rato...Price To Book Value Ratio post balance sheet restructuring? I think the KQ stock is overvalued at the moment...it should be trading at around Ksh3-4...are you happy that GoK is now a majority shareholder? Given the track record of African Government owned airlines are you not scared? I'm not scared, as I am in both governments. I'll explain later.. Meanwhile, for the KES 8.5, I arrived there via indicative conversion price of KES 2.13 consolidated on a ratio of 1:4.. All the ordinary shares will be listed at the NSE. Hence, if the converted shares trade at KES 8.5, why would the minority stake trade any lower?? 1. After consolidation there will be 7.2Bn trading listed ordinary shares 2. Shareholder Equity will be Ksh11Bn 3. KQ plans to borrow another Ksh10Bn from the already screwed banks 4. Book value per share after consolidation will be Ksh1.5 At Ksh8.5 I will be overpaying mahn Correct me if my numbers are wrong Very wrong bro.. Please read the Project Safari circular. To answer your questions 1. Yes. Consolidation will reduce the available shares 2. 29.9B shares has equity value of 63B.. How will the reduced float of 7.4B shares result in market cap of 11.2B 3. Additional borrowing backed by guarantee will be at longer tenors and from valid banks, not the 3 nasty lenders who refused to convert 4. I won't even respond to that assessment HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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http://www.businessdaily...19160-g0ihvm/index.html
Some commercial banks that national carrier Kenya Airways owes billions of shillings are holding out against the just-released rescue plan, putting the deal that offers the lenders a substantial stake in the airline at the risk of collapse. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/8/2007 Posts: 808
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obiero wrote:the deal wrote:obiero wrote:the deal wrote:obiero wrote:snifadog wrote:What does the next 12months look like for a retail investor who entered this stock at 5bob this year? Looking for some commentary on the share price and rights issue options. Thanks Twelve months is too far.. By today, the fair value of KQ should read KES 8.5 at the least.. One needs to review the pro forma balance sheet to get a feel of things to come Bwana @Obiero how do you arrive at this? Based on what valuation metric? PE Rato...Price To Book Value Ratio post balance sheet restructuring? I think the KQ stock is overvalued at the moment...it should be trading at around Ksh3-4...are you happy that GoK is now a majority shareholder? Given the track record of African Government owned airlines are you not scared? I'm not scared, as I am in both governments. I'll explain later.. Meanwhile, for the KES 8.5, I arrived there via indicative conversion price of KES 2.13 consolidated on a ratio of 1:4.. All the ordinary shares will be listed at the NSE. Hence, if the converted shares trade at KES 8.5, why would the minority stake trade any lower?? 1. After consolidation there will be 7.2Bn trading listed ordinary shares 2. Shareholder Equity will be Ksh11Bn 3. KQ plans to borrow another Ksh10Bn from the already screwed banks 4. Book value per share after consolidation will be Ksh1.5 At Ksh8.5 I will be overpaying mahn Correct me if my numbers are wrong Very wrong bro.. Please read the Project Safari circular. To answer your questions 1. Yes. Consolidation will reduce the available shares 2. 29.9B shares has equity value of 63B.. How will the reduced float of 7.4B shares result in market cap of 11.2B 3. Additional borrowing backed by guarantee will be at longer tenors and from valid banks, not the 3 nasty lenders who refused to convert 4. I won't even respond to that assessment What is the post conversion NAV? That tells it all.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,507 Location: nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/KQ-recovery-plan-faces-banks-challenge/539546-4019160-g0ihvm/index.html
Some commercial banks that national carrier Kenya Airways owes billions of shillings are holding out against the just-released rescue plan, putting the deal that offers the lenders a substantial stake in the airline at the risk of collapse. Fake news. This thing is signed sealed delivered HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/KQ-recovery-plan-faces-banks-challenge/539546-4019160-g0ihvm/index.html
Some commercial banks that national carrier Kenya Airways owes billions of shillings are holding out against the just-released rescue plan, putting the deal that offers the lenders a substantial stake in the airline at the risk of collapse. Fake news. This thing is signed sealed delivered New-York based White & Case (KQ’s international counsel) and Coulson Harney (their local lawyers) will also pocket a large portion of the Sh1 billion set aside for legal advisory work. This bill includes the amount each company invoiced as well as the incidental costs incurred when the legal and transaction advisers were negotiating with the airline’s lessors, the government and the Kenyan banks, all of which KQ is footing. possunt quia posse videntur
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
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maka wrote:obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/KQ-recovery-plan-faces-banks-challenge/539546-4019160-g0ihvm/index.html
Some commercial banks that national carrier Kenya Airways owes billions of shillings are holding out against the just-released rescue plan, putting the deal that offers the lenders a substantial stake in the airline at the risk of collapse. Fake news. This thing is signed sealed delivered New-York based White & Case (KQ’s international counsel) and Coulson Harney (their local lawyers) will also pocket a large portion of the Sh1 billion set aside for legal advisory work. This bill includes the amount each company invoiced as well as the incidental costs incurred when the legal and transaction advisers were negotiating with the airline’s lessors, the government and the Kenyan banks, all of which KQ is footing. http://www.businessdaily...19044-pk2h7hz/index.htmlpossunt quia posse videntur
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,507 Location: nairobi
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maka wrote:maka wrote:obiero wrote:[quote=Ericsson]http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/KQ-recovery-plan-faces-banks-challenge/539546-4019160-g0ihvm/index.html
Some commercial banks that national carrier Kenya Airways owes billions of shillings are holding out against the just-released rescue plan, putting the deal that offers the lenders a substantial stake in the airline at the risk of collapse. Fake news. This thing is signed sealed delivered New-York based White & Case (KQ’s international counsel) and Coulson Harney (their local lawyers) will also pocket a large portion of the Sh1 billion set aside for legal advisory work. This bill includes the amount each company invoiced as well as the incidental costs incurred when the legal and transaction advisers were negotiating with the airline’s lessors, the government and the Kenyan banks, all of which KQ is footing. http://www.businessdaily...9044-pk2h7hz/index.html[/quote] @maka.. We, the shareholders will pay for the service delivered.. What's the issue.. The more I reflect on the circular, the more I thank goodness for Mbuvi Ngunze. He is wise beyond his years HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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snifadog wrote:What does the next 12months look like for a retail investor who entered this stock at 5bob this year? Looking for some commentary on the share price and rights issue options. Thanks Quite gloomy if u stick inside and wait to be properly clobbered by dilution** after kuslim. You can only lay a claim to less than 5% of anything called this firm after the deal is sealed if you won't participate in the share offer deal whose pricing is yet to be determined and still a deal without guarantee to be favourable considering you will have to have a control of a further nothing. Thereafter you will be in bed with partners whose interests are secured and may care less for your little concerns anyway. It's like being driven home by an exmathare. In case of winding up, thereafter in the given time, u will most and most definitely u end up Bing shafted twice and left high and dry. Further going by the current composition u will be worth something like 25cents for each kathing you own. Tafakari hayo. And why ask if you can read what's in black and white so far? ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,507 Location: nairobi
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muandiwambeu wrote:snifadog wrote:What does the next 12months look like for a retail investor who entered this stock at 5bob this year? Looking for some commentary on the share price and rights issue options. Thanks Quite gloomy if u stick inside and wait to be properly clobbered by dilution** after kuslim. You can only lay a claim to less than 5% of anything called this firm after the deal is sealed if you won't participate in the share offer deal whose pricing is yet to be determined and still a deal without guarantee to be favourable considering you will have to have a control of a further nothing. Thereafter you will be in bed with partners whose interests are secured and may care less for your little concerns anyway. It's like being driven home by an exmathare. In case of winding up, thereafter in the given time, u will most and most definitely u end up Bing shafted twice and left high and dry. Further going by the current composition u will be worth something like 25cents for each kathing you own. Tafakari hayo. And why ask if you can read what's in black and white so far? @snifadog let not the wazua poet misguide you.. If the share was meant to trade at KES 0.25, what stopped it from going down today.. Further, it has been agreed that the Open Offer price shall be less than the conversion price and that Michael Joseph will determine the ratio along with at least 2/3 majority of the board. What else would a shareholder require?? HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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obiero wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:snifadog wrote:What does the next 12months look like for a retail investor who entered this stock at 5bob this year? Looking for some commentary on the share price and rights issue options. Thanks Quite gloomy if u stick inside and wait to be properly clobbered by dilution** after kuslim. You can only lay a claim to less than 5% of anything called this firm after the deal is sealed if you won't participate in the share offer deal whose pricing is yet to be determined and still a deal without guarantee to be favourable considering you will have to have a control of a further nothing. Thereafter you will be in bed with partners whose interests are secured and may care less for your little concerns anyway. It's like being driven home by an exmathare. In case of winding up, thereafter in the given time, u will most and most definitely u end up Bing shafted twice and left high and dry. Further going by the current composition u will be worth something like 25cents for each kathing you own. Tafakari hayo. And why ask if you can read what's in black and white so far? @snifadog let not the wazua poet misguide you.. If the share was meant to trade at KES 0.25, what stopped it from going down today.. Further, it has been agreed that the Open Offer price shall be less than the conversion price and that Michael Joseph will determine the ratio along with at least 2/3 majority of the board. What else would a shareholder require?? Joining @Obieros choir? @snifdog, sniff alittle of this seriocomical hilarious choir and see it lacks in substance andif tunes. If only the choir master could tell you all his other members are scheming on naivety and ignorant congregants. A poem is met to be digested and be internalized not to tantalize and lure unwitting passersby to slaughter. @obi please why not answer @snifadog without throwing unnecessary tantrums and innuendos and let him decide has a sober investor as is the spirit of this fora. ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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