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Ksh at its weakest since it floated in 1994
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hisah
#701 Posted : Friday, May 11, 2012 12:33:05 PM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
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So is DN saying KNBS or gubberment has been lying that inflation has been dipping for the last 5 months?

http://www.nation.co.ke/...4/-/4nm89l/-/index.html

High CBR & high inflation = all is well. Oh, now I get it d'oh!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#702 Posted : Tuesday, May 15, 2012 8:21:03 AM
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Hmmm... ERC has taken petrol price back to 121/- last seen in Dec 2011.

It's amusing to see inflation going down while fuel prices are up.

Hopeful next review (June 15) should see the prices slip with a large margin as oil prices have shed a lot between April 15 & May 14.

KPLC is still on course to hike power tariffs. I'm confused with the KE policy makers esp on inflation control. Why allow power tariff hikes now? KES is still weak and the USD has been strengthening since April. If USD keeps the pressure like last year, it will top out around Oct. Will CBK be able to hold out that long as well as sustain the high CBR rate? The KE June budget is a proposed 1.4 Trillion spend. From where, no idea?

The KE fundies (macroeconomics) despite the rains are very tricky to read for now. I find treasury to be lacking in their fiscal policy strategy... d'oh!

http://bit.ly/ITwPoA
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#703 Posted : Tuesday, May 15, 2012 8:32:14 AM
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Small banks reduce lending rates? In this period of high CBR with high funding costs??? Dangerous moves this...

http://bit.ly/JqUIZj
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#704 Posted : Monday, May 21, 2012 3:50:32 PM
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USDKES - basing out and inching up slowly. But when CBR slashing will begin, 90s will be the target. And with that huge budget coming up, plus elections funds and double digit inflation, above 100 will not be shocking...

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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kizee1
#705 Posted : Monday, May 21, 2012 5:04:27 PM
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Joined: 9/29/2010
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Location: nairobi
yes break of stubborn 84.5 opens up room for 88.88(200dma) ur spot on on this one, the only way to save kes is to un-monetize(if such a term exists) remember reserves are up 600m which means 48bn kes has been printed so cbk have to mop up the same or they assume that demand for money will surge by the same amount( unlikely)
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hisah
#706 Posted : Monday, May 21, 2012 11:31:46 PM
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Last time treasury was supposed to bail out Orange KE. Now they are to bailout city hall... Oh dear KES, all the best of luck.

http://bit.ly/Jjg3mg
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kyt
#707 Posted : Monday, May 21, 2012 11:35:11 PM
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hisah wrote:
USDKES - basing out and inching up slowly. But when CBR slashing will begin, 90s will be the target. And with that huge budget coming up, plus elections funds and double digit inflation, above 100 will not be shocking...


with the 83 handle broken it's anything goes. cbk will rue not letting it go to 70's
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hisah
#708 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 8:42:21 AM
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kyt wrote:
hisah wrote:
USDKES - basing out and inching up slowly. But when CBR slashing will begin, 90s will be the target. And with that huge budget coming up, plus elections funds and double digit inflation, above 100 will not be shocking...


with the 83 handle broken it's anything goes. cbk will rue not letting it go to 70's

Pushing it to 70s would be severe manipulation. Even at 84 it's still manipulation for the macroeconomics dont support such KES strength. If CBR is lowered even by 200bps, the weakening of the KES will be large.
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hisah
#709 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 8:45:05 AM
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Balance of payments looking bad. Should USDKES start moving past 90 as I expect, that BOP will give treasury nightmares.

http://www.businessdaily...6/-/q0fwrpz/-/index.html
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hisah
#710 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 2:34:08 PM
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USDKES - Tested 85 and heading up... http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-kes

Is CBK going to cut CBR in the next seating?
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kizee1
#711 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 3:47:26 PM
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hisah wrote:
USDKES - Tested 85 and heading up... http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-kes

Is CBK going to cut CBR in the next seating?


some idiots calling for a hike, but what good would that do?the problem is cbks activity to support the dollar when it flirted with the 82.5 line in the sand, now the chicken have come home to roost
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hisah
#712 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2012 4:04:44 PM
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kizee1 wrote:
hisah wrote:
USDKES - Tested 85 and heading up... http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-kes

Is CBK going to cut CBR in the next seating?


some idiots calling for a hike, but what good would that do?the problem is cbks activity to support the dollar when it flirted with the 82.5 line in the sand, now the chicken have come home to roost

Another hike on CBR??? Madness. And if it happens, oh dear KE econ and the banking stocks...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#713 Posted : Friday, May 25, 2012 9:46:20 AM
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Will KE benefit from this oil nosedive at the pump stations? The price plunge is huge and definitely the oil marketers will not reduce prices accordingly. A reduction of at least 8/- should be fair. But ERC might just come for my neck for price manipulation smile

Such a reduction and no power tariff hike would force inflation below 10%. But with USDKES moving in the opposite direction I wonder if CBK will have the balls to slash CBR down to 10% in coming months with weakening Ksh. Tough call here for treasury...

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Cde Monomotapa
#714 Posted : Friday, May 25, 2012 11:57:00 AM
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@hisah In light of the +ve developments in rain making, USD600M external funding (pending disbursement) & energy markets I still advocate for CBR @ 18% untill proper feed-through sets in sometime in Q3.
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Cde Monomotapa
#715 Posted : Friday, May 25, 2012 12:00:14 PM
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Rest assured Counties devt.will create fertile absorption ground for the next round of Monetary easing. HOLD & or Accumulate banks smile
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hisah
#716 Posted : Monday, May 28, 2012 5:55:38 PM
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73 per cent of Kenyans unhappy with economic performance. That's what wananchi feel and not those pathetic KNBS economy fudged figures esp inflation as well as CBK smashing Tbill rates and supporting a weak KES to no avail...

These are classic wage inflation signals and I would be very concerned as MoF. But do they even know what they're doing. NKT!

Quote:
The survey found that 73 per cent of respondents said Kenya's economy was in a bad situation despite a decline in inflation.


http://bit.ly/K6n4IF
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hisah
#717 Posted : Thursday, May 31, 2012 1:16:44 PM
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USDKES was on course to test 88 today. Then a huge anvil was dropped on it and fell it to 85.35. Definitely CBK is in the market selling dollars with a bang!

Finally let the game begin, we are back to Aug 2011 and I expect this thing to fly past 88 then 95 then 100. By the time it tests 107 a lot of protests will be the order of the day... Last year I called the USDKES to hit 90 and it flew past 100! This time it won't be funny and globally CBs are struggling to stem the USD tide. On the monthly dollar index, the technicals are getting stronger pointing to a huge USD squeeze coming soon. The USD demand can only be crashed by the FED, that is if they decide to flood another USD tsunami like back in 2009.

Get ready for the USD squeeze.


http://www.shareimages.c...lpymlp6SmqI-usdkes05.png
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#718 Posted : Thursday, May 31, 2012 1:20:06 PM
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I can see BD also captured it - http://www.businessdaily.../-/oqy1tkz/-/index.html

As well as reuters - http://af.reuters.com/ar...ws/idAFL5E8GV1JT20120531
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hisah
#719 Posted : Thursday, May 31, 2012 1:26:00 PM
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Quote:
Kenyan Finance Minister Robinson Githae said on Wednesday the shilling's slide was "temporary" as it was due to banks paying dividends to overseas investors and he was confident the pressure would ease soon.


This is absolute bullcrap from the KE Fin Min. Come on you can do better than this when KE is facing a worsening BoP by the day! Idiot!
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the deal
#720 Posted : Thursday, May 31, 2012 2:09:22 PM
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Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Enjoying CBK's running battles with the markets...KES touched 87.9 early this morning...CBK intervened to send it to 85.3 now its back to 86.45...wooow...who will be the last man standing??? Grab some pop corns....this battle is way better than the one in Somalia...
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