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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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VituVingiSana wrote:mnandii wrote:It is important for all to note that the current crises we are experiencing will not end any time soon. It may well be the beginning of a much more difficult deflationary environment.
As long as the NSE 20 Share Index keeps falling (the waves show that a bottom is still far away) the physical and economic situation will continue to get worse. This is Socionomics and we have forecasted these conditions over several posts in this thread.It's also precisely why Elliotticians and Socionomists advocate keeping hard cash. With cash you will have something when banks collapse. And the value of your holdings will increase substantially especially at a time when everybody else will have lost theirs.
Of course you must forget about real estate for now and for a long time to come. Their values have started falling and have a long way to fall further. No one is going to bother about property any time soon.
And since you have more time in your hands by virtue of the quarantine, consider reading CONQUER THE CRASH BY ROBERT PRECHTER. You should have read it long time ago but you still have time to help yourself. Deflation is not all bad. It's about relativity. Example: In 2018, I could sell my house for 1mn and buy 2 flats for 1mn. Now I can get 800k for the house but the 2 flats for 800k as well then RELATIVELY speaking little has changed. As for good income-producing assets, the ROI is important. Would cash have been better? Yes but cash also has a cash-drag (esp in the USA, EU, Japan but not in Kenya) currently. That said, cash offers optionality as is today, was yesterday and will be tomorrow. @vvs speaking in codes. So, somebody who didn't buy neither the flats nor the house can now get a flat and a house with his money and have some money left for renovations 😋. And I hope that's why in a deflationary economy cash is king. Or am I speaking in tongues now,,,, ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,349 Location: Nairobi
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muandiwambeu wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mnandii wrote:It is important for all to note that the current crises we are experiencing will not end any time soon. It may well be the beginning of a much more difficult deflationary environment.
As long as the NSE 20 Share Index keeps falling (the waves show that a bottom is still far away) the physical and economic situation will continue to get worse. This is Socionomics and we have forecasted these conditions over several posts in this thread.It's also precisely why Elliotticians and Socionomists advocate keeping hard cash. With cash you will have something when banks collapse. And the value of your holdings will increase substantially especially at a time when everybody else will have lost theirs.
Of course you must forget about real estate for now and for a long time to come. Their values have started falling and have a long way to fall further. No one is going to bother about property any time soon.
And since you have more time in your hands by virtue of the quarantine, consider reading CONQUER THE CRASH BY ROBERT PRECHTER. You should have read it long time ago but you still have time to help yourself. Deflation is not all bad. It's about relativity. Example: In 2018, I could sell my house for 1mn and buy 2 flats for 1mn. Now I can get 800k for the house but the 2 flats for 800k as well then RELATIVELY speaking little has changed. As for good income-producing assets, the ROI is important. Would cash have been better? Yes but cash also has a cash-drag (esp in the USA, EU, Japan but not in Kenya) currently. That said, cash offers optionality as is today, was yesterday and will be tomorrow. @vvs speaking in codes. So, somebody who didn't buy neither the flats nor the house can now get a flat and a house with his money and have some money left for renovations 😋. And I hope that's why in a deflationary economy cash is king. Or am I speaking in tongues now,,,,  "Cash offers optionality as is today, was yesterday and will be tomorrow" In Kenya, cash could have earned an investor 7-12% per annum depending on the tenor of T-Bills/Bonds. That wasn't the case for "Western" countries since 2009 and QE. So yes, someone who stuck with cash earning 10% p.a. since 2009 could end up with 2 flats, a house and have cash left over!  I am using 2009 as the base year and it seems prices in "middle-class" Kenya have been flat for a while. This is a good thing too. Property prices, IMHO, had gone nuts. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,349 Location: Nairobi
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Though one should remember that VVS's inflation is not MW's inflation. We have different baskets of goods. Assume MW and VVS live next to each other. Even have similar jobs with similar pay. That's where it ends. MW has 5 kids + mpango. VVS has 2 kids + zero-grazes. VVS rents. MW owns. Increase in school fees affects MW > VVS Increase in beer costs MW > VVS Increase in rent MW < VVS. Rent is irrelevant to MW but rates are relevant. Increase in fuel costs MW > VVS (Those 5 kids need a bigger car. Might even have 2 cars since Mpango refuses to be seen in a probox). Food costs MW > VVS but VVS' wife for some reason likes to tithe so increased costs for religious trips VVS > MW  So each basket is different. Hence deflation for VVS may not be deflation for MW. Or the same amount. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/1/2009 Posts: 272
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VituVingiSana wrote:Though one should remember that VVS's inflation is not MW's inflation. We have different baskets of goods. Assume MW and VVS live next to each other. Even have similar jobs with similar pay. That's where it ends. MW has 5 kids + mpango. VVS has 2 kids + zero-grazes. VVS rents. MW owns. Increase in school fees affects MW > VVS Increase in beer costs MW > VVS Increase in rent MW < VVS. Rent is irrelevant to MW but rates are relevant. Increase in fuel costs MW > VVS (Those 5 kids need a bigger car. Might even have 2 cars since Mpango refuses to be seen in a probox). Food costs MW > VVS but VVS' wife for some reason likes to tithe so increased costs for religious trips VVS > MW So each basket is different. Hence deflation for VVS may not be deflation for MW. Or the same amount. I think of Gov paper as a different asset class. When talking about cash, there is cash in the bank, and cash in a mattress. Each has different risks. During the financial crisis in Cyprus, the gov raided bank deposits, and I presume cash held in gov papers as well. Only cash in mattresses was untouched. This is one of the routes GOK might take due to their debt repayment burden. At times like now, all the above three are will be affected by inflation and currency depreciation (unless you hold cash in hard currencies).
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Quote:Nearly a third of Americans didn't pay rent this month, new data showsQuote:(CNN)With nearly 10 million Americans filing for unemployment in March, April 1 was always going to be a difficult day for US renters.
Now we know just how difficult: Nearly a third of American renters didn't pay their rent this month.
That's according to data from the National Multifamily Housing Council, a trade association for the apartment industry. cnn linkConventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Monk wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Though one should remember that VVS's inflation is not MW's inflation. We have different baskets of goods. Assume MW and VVS live next to each other. Even have similar jobs with similar pay. That's where it ends. MW has 5 kids + mpango. VVS has 2 kids + zero-grazes. VVS rents. MW owns. Increase in school fees affects MW > VVS Increase in beer costs MW > VVS Increase in rent MW < VVS. Rent is irrelevant to MW but rates are relevant. Increase in fuel costs MW > VVS (Those 5 kids need a bigger car. Might even have 2 cars since Mpango refuses to be seen in a probox). Food costs MW > VVS but VVS' wife for some reason likes to tithe so increased costs for religious trips VVS > MW So each basket is different. Hence deflation for VVS may not be deflation for MW. Or the same amount. I think of Gov paper as a different asset class. When talking about cash, there is cash in the bank, and cash in a mattress. Each has different risks. During the financial crisis in Cyprus, the gov raided bank deposits, and I presume cash held in gov papers as well. Only cash in mattresses was untouched. This is one of the routes GOK might take due to their debt repayment burden. At times like now, all the above three are will be affected by inflation and currency depreciation (unless you hold cash in hard currencies). Cash should be kept away from the prying eyes of the government. So yes, keep under mattress. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,349 Location: Nairobi
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Monk wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Though one should remember that VVS's inflation is not MW's inflation. We have different baskets of goods. Assume MW and VVS live next to each other. Even have similar jobs with similar pay. That's where it ends. MW has 5 kids + mpango. VVS has 2 kids + zero-grazes. VVS rents. MW owns. Increase in school fees affects MW > VVS Increase in beer costs MW > VVS Increase in rent MW < VVS. Rent is irrelevant to MW but rates are relevant. Increase in fuel costs MW > VVS (Those 5 kids need a bigger car. Might even have 2 cars since Mpango refuses to be seen in a probox). Food costs MW > VVS but VVS' wife for some reason likes to tithe so increased costs for religious trips VVS > MW So each basket is different. Hence deflation for VVS may not be deflation for MW. Or the same amount. I think of Gov paper as a different asset class. When talking about cash, there is cash in the bank, and cash in a mattress. Each has different risks. During the financial crisis in Cyprus, the gov raided bank deposits, and I presume cash held in gov papers as well. Only cash in mattresses was untouched. This is one of the routes GOK might take due to their debt repayment burden. At times like now, all the above three are will be affected by inflation and currency depreciation (unless you hold cash in hard currencies). As a fan of Mr. Warren Buffett, "cash" for me is more than physical cash but what can easily (and without a significant haircut) be converted into cash hence T-Bills which are ST is "cash" in my books. As a serious investor, holding physical cash is limiting. Anything over 1mn becomes dicey to handle with the AML rules even if the source is legit. Not to mention the risk (theft, fire, etc) of storage and cash-drag. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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 OIL. XTIUSD: Expecting Oil to rise in wave C of (4) to about 32.30 or 36 to test the gap before falling off to levels below 18.00. The cut in global crude oil output notwithstanding. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,349 Location: Nairobi
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mnandii wrote:OIL. XTIUSD: Expecting Oil to rise in wave C of (4) to about 32.30 or 36 to test the gap before falling off to levels below 18.00. The cut in global crude oil output notwithstanding. So would you take a bet and sell me oil at a pre-determined future at $22 ($4 profit for you if it gets to $18)? I don't know how the mechanism would work but skin in the game. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,220 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:mnandii wrote:OIL. XTIUSD: Expecting Oil to rise in wave C of (4) to about 32.30 or 36 to test the gap before falling off to levels below 18.00. The cut in global crude oil output notwithstanding. So would you take a bet and sell me oil at a pre-determined future at $22 ($4 profit for you if it gets to $18)? I don't know how the mechanism would work but skin in the game. Current crude prices are unbelievably low..
KQ ABP 4.26
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